The Home Run Derby and All-Star Game have come and passed, which means that the second half of MLB is on the way. And there’s plenty to watch out for, from a loaded National League Cy Young Race, to heated wild card races in both leagues, to a trade deadline that promises to be as unpredictable as ever given the bunched-up standings and three wild card spots available.
So before the second half begins to play out, let’s get bold and make some predictions.
Pete Crow-Armstrong wins NL MVP
If the Cubs go on to do big things this year, ESPN will make a 30 for 30 on manager Craig Counsell’s fateful decision before a 3–0 loss to the Astros on May 23. Counsell, in an attempt to jumpstart a lifeless Cubs offense, moved the struggling Crow-Armstrong up to the leadoff spot
He’s been a terror since. No hitter in baseball has a higher wRC+ (212!) than Crow-Armstrong since that point, and no player comes even close to his 4.6 fWAR during that span. Yes, there’s still a guy named Shohei Ohtani who’s at the peak of his two-way powers and has won the last two NL MVP awards. But Ohtani is dealing with a troublesome knee injury and may be load-managed through the second half with the mighty Dodgers in control of the NL West.
Call it Ohtani fatigue or call it whatever you want to call it. Crow-Armstrong, sitting at 21 homers and 24 stolen bases, has a chance to go 40-40 while also playing arguably the best defense of any centerfielder in the game (16 Outs Above Average, 12 Defensive Runs Saved).
That might just be enough to unseat Ohtani for NL MVP.
Phillies win NL East
The rough draft of the 2026 Phillies’ obituary was already being written in late April with the club 10 games under .500 and tied for last place in the NL East. Then, two things happened. First, the injured Zack Wheeler made his return to the rotation on April 25 after a long road back from thoracic outlet surgery. Then, the club fired manager Rob Thomson.
Since that point, Wheeler ranks top five in ERA, strikeout rate and fWAR while the Phillies are tied for the best record in MLB at 45–24 and boast the best run differential of any NL East team. All the while, the City of Brotherly Love has watched as the Braves, baseball’s first team to 40 wins, have been besieged by injury and slump alike and watched their NL East lead dwindle from a season-high 10.5 games on May 22 to just two games at the break. The Braves will have reinforcements—namely Ronald Acuña Jr.—and some of their slumping bats, such as Drake Baldwin, are likely to turn things around.
But the Phillies, with a two-headed monster atop the rotation in Cristopher Sanchez and Wheeler, and two of the best sluggers in baseball in Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, are most definitely for real. They have the goods to do what once would have been unthinkable.
Tarik Skubal isn’t traded at deadline
Much like world history in terms of B.C. (Before Christ) or A.D. (Anno Domini), the Tigers’ 2026 season can be divided into two sections: Skubal healthy and Skubal injured. With the back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner healthy and pitching, Detroit is 30–27, hardly world-beaters but plenty good enough to make the playoffs in a historically weak AL.
Without Skubal, who was shelved for 39 games due to loose bodies in his elbow, Detroit is just 14–25, a .358 winning percentage that would be the worst in the AL extrapolated over a full season.
This stark contrast in performances is at the very heart of the debate that will rage in the Tigers’ front office in the lead-up to the Aug. 6 deadline. The mid-market Tigers can’t afford to pay Skubal, a pending free agent, so they should trade him for a king’s ransom. The underachieving Tigers may yet have a shot at the World Series this year and should absolutely keep Skubal, the biggest series-swinging advantage at starting pitcher in the game. It’s a should-I-stay-or-should-I-go dilemma for Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris.
And yet, if the 44–52 Tigers sit anywhere close to where they are now—just 3.5 games back of playoff spot—18 games from now, Harris may have no choice but to stand pat for a possible postseason push with Skubal on the roster.
The Pirates front office gets aggressive to end NL’s longest active postseason drought
Take a bow, Pirates front office. Pittsburgh, on the heels of fielding baseball’s worst offense in 2025, was aggressive this past winter in importing the likes of Ryan O’Hearn (128 OPS+) and Brandon Lowe (team-high 21 homers). Then, they carried that aggressiveness into the season, calling up top MLB prospect Konnor Griffin, as well as fellow top organizational prospects Jhostynxon Garcia and Esmerlyn Valdez, who has belted 10 homers in his first 28 big-league games.
All the Pirates have done is score the most runs in baseball despite being without the likes of O’Hearn, Oneil Cruz and Spencer Horwitz for periods of time this year. With a starting rotation led by All-Stars Paul Skenes and Braxton Ashcraft that ranks 12th in baseball in ERA, the foundation is clearly here for a postseason run. No one yet knows who will be buying and selling at the trade deadline in a few weeks’ time. But does anyone think the Pirates’ front office won’t hesitate to aggressively upgrade one of the worst bullpens in baseball by Aug. 6? They’ve already demonstrated their merit at plugging roster holes.
They’ll do so again and help the team on the field end the National League's longest active postseason drought.
Cam Schlittler Doesn’t Win AL Cy Young
Schlittler was like Secretariat in the 1973 Belmont Stakes in the Cy Young Award race earlier this season, as he was the only AL pitcher to live in the sub-2.00 ERA range for a couple months. Then, the blow-up happened. On a hot, muggy June 30 start at Yankee Stadium against the Tigers, Schlittler ran into a speed bump, with the ball flying out of the park to the tune of four homers and six earned runs. Schlittler has since steadied the waters with a stellar start against Tampa Bay and a solid outing vs. the Nationals.
And while Schlittler is still the favorite, the contenders are creeping up, particularly in his own division. The Red Sox’ Sonny Gray leads the AL with 11 wins and his 2.54 ERA is second-best in the AL. The Blue Jays’ Dylan Cease leads the AL in strikeouts and has pitched to a 1.73 ERA since returning from a left hamstring strain on June 9. The Rays possess two starters with sub-3.00 ERAs in Nick Martinez and Shane McClanahan and another in Drew Rasmussen who has the stuff to challenge for the award.
Then, there’s the guys on the outskirts, such as Joe Ryan of the Twins, Jacob deGrom of the Rangers and the aforementioned Skubal, each of whom could pitch their respective clubs to the postseason. Such a herculean effort could also result in a Cy Young.
There’s a chance Schlittler, with the field closing in, could end up like Smarty Jones at the 2004 Belmont.
The Red Sox make the playoffs
The dirty water was, well, squalid earlier this year, to the point where the hapless Red Sox fired World Series-winning manager Alex Cora and five members of his staff in late-April. Boston took one step forward and three steps back through May and most of June—and then, bam!
The Red Sox exited June like a lion and entered July like a fire-breathing dragon, as the club is 13–2 since June 25 and has won nine straight games while outscoring opponents by 31 runs. It’s been simply remarkable to watch this team deal with adversity. Ace Garrett Crochet has been sidelined since April 25 due to shoulder inflammation and a lat strain. He’s since been joined on the shelf by the likes of a resurgent Ranger Suárez and promising youngster Connelly Early. Sonny Gray has pitched like a Cy Young Award candidate, No. 6 prospect Jake Bennett has pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA in his first eight starts and the ever-steady Payton Tolle has churned out quality start after quality start.
The lineup hasn’t had Roman Anthony, Trevor Story or Triston Casas, yet has been productive enough to win games, thanks in part to a career year from Willson Contreras. But run prevention is this team’s strength, with arguably the AL’s best bullpen and defense to boot.
In a weak AL, the Red Sox certainly have a path to a wild card spot.
Astros rise to the top of weak AL West
Save the best for last. Since this is supposed to be a bold predictions article, let’s get really bold. The Astros, 47–51 with just 9.7% Fangraphs odds to win the division and a 24.9% chance to make the postseason entirely, will make a run for October despite fielding the fourth-worst pitching staff in baseball. How?
Houston possesses Yordan Alvarez, a 6’ 4” supernova at the plate, the best hitter in the world at the moment and a rising tide which lifts all boats. The rest of the lineup, with the likes of Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker, isn‘t too shabby. The pitching staff benefited from the return of ace Hunter Brown and will soon benefit from the returns of Hayden Wesneski and Ronel Blanco. And in the bullpen, there are bright spots in lefties Josh Hader (1.17 EA), Steven Okert (2.31 ERA) and Bryan King (2.94 ERA).
The AL West is the worst division in the worst league in baseball. The Angels and A's have fallen on hard times, while the Mariners have underachieved and the Rangers have played middling baseball. It sounds wild to say it given their recent history, but why not the Astros?
