Giving a new lease of life to the paddy growers in the State who are in dire need of rainfall, following an extremely dry August, September puts forward the prospect of a gradual intensification of the monsoon aided by enhanced cross equatorial flow and the strengthening of the weather systems over the Bay of Bengal. The first three days of September saw a rainfall of 24.4 mm in the State against the long-period average of 30.7 mm of rain during the same period.
The State received only 59.6 mm of rainfall during the entire month of August against the average of 445.2 mm, resulting in a shortfall of 87%. For August, it was the lowest rainfall recorded in Kerala from 1901 to 2023. The situation was aggravated by the scanty rainfall in June, which provided only 260.3 mm rainfall against the average of 648.3 mm, a drop of 60%.
According to scientists in the India Meteorological Department, as per the long-period average of rainfall in September, the State will have to get a rainfall of 271.8 mm this month. It would still be difficult to wipe out the cumulative monsoon deficit in the four-month season. The current meteorological features are in favour of normal September rain in Kerala.
The cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal and the likely formation of low pressure over the northwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal in the next 48 hours is expected to trigger fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall across the State.
‘An isolated incident’
In addition, the monsoon trough which now runs along the foothills of the Himalayas will shift to its normal position by Monday and subsequently to south of its normal position. Shifting the monsoon trough to the south of its normal position generally enhances the rainfall activity in central and south India. However, extreme rainfall events are largely unlikely in the current milieu. The extreme rainfall event that occurred at Kakki in Pathanamthitta recently with a rainfall of 224 mm in 24 hours was an isolated incident. It was attributed to the convection due to the high temperatures recorded on the previous days, said IMD sources.
