Buried but not yet dead, senior Labour figures are right to be haunted by the fear of a Conservative resurrection.
Harold Wilson in 1970, Neil Kinnock in 1992, Ed Miliband in 2015 and at times Jeremy Corbyn before the 2019 disaster thought they’d win – and lost.
It feels different in 2023 with Keir Starmer’s consistent huge poll leads and public patience snapping with a fourth Tory PM and 13 years of failure.
Yet Rishi Sunak rising from the grave is still chillingly possible if improbable, delaying until autumn next year a General Election that could be constitutionally as late as January 2025, providing many of Wilson’s long weeks in politics and myriad chances for Harold Macmillan’s mood-altering events.
A prominent Labour frontbencher confided in me that he suffers nightmares about the Tories somehow coming out on top in the fifth contest on the trot. “It’s terrifying, I couldn’t bear it,” he said.
“And it would be so cruel. Keir tells us there must be no complacency. He’s right, of course. The dread gnaws away at you.”
The plot for a Tory comeback sketched by the Labour frontbencher includes the economy growing again, the NHS recovering, strikes and Channel boat crossings ending, and exploiting social divisions in areas such as trans rights. Presenting President Rishi as superior to a PM Starmer is key.
None of that may work.
Obviously, Covid and the invasion of Ukraine don’t explain why we’re doing worse than similar nations.
The Tories really did crash the economy last year.
The NHS was buckling before the pandemic after a decade of Tory underfunding. And promising to cut tax after hiking it won’t feel credible.
Starmer’s responding to those poll leads with caution rather than boldness, creating dissenting mumbles in his party. But right now it’s his way or no way, imposing iron discipline.
Sunak will struggle to escape the grave.
