As the November general election nears, Democrats face a challenging path to holding their Senate majority as the Republican seats that are up for reelection seem to be strongly holding onto their base, polls suggest.
Although some Democrats in competitive races are apparently separating themselves from the top of their party's ticket, the tactic doesn't seem to be enough, as nine of the top 10 seats on CNN's latest ranking of the Senate seats most likely to flip are held by Democrats, or independents who caucus with them.
A similar image is painted in the Cook's Political Report (CPR) Senate Race ratings, where 11 seats up for election in November are comfortably categorized as either "Solid Republican" or "Likely Republican."
One of the household names that will appear on the ticket is Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who will face off Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred. So far, polls see Cruz holding a comfortable lead in the contest, and CPR ranks this race as "Likely" being won by the Republican candidate.
For instance, an ActiVote survey ending on July 18 showed Cruz holding 54% of support, compared to Allred's 46%. Similarly, a Remington Research Group poll from July 1 painted Cruz with a 10 percentage point lead with Allred, at 53% to 43% respectively.
Despite these numbers, CNN still ranks this race as the 10th seat most likely to flip, as Allred continues to gain popularity and polls seem to be slowly closing the gap between the two candidates.
Another race that will likely see a GOP win, though it is not yet considered a "solid" victory, is found in Florida, where the junior senator Rick Scott will go head-to-head against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
A University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab poll showed Scott leading the race by 47%, compared to Mucarsel-Powell's 43%. According to the Tallahassee Democrat, Scott is hoping to beat his razor-thing 2018 election with something more substantial, but despite his lead, it doesn't seem like he is succeeding at widening the gap.
Other races that are considered solidly Republican wins for incumbent include Missouri's Josh Hawley, Mississippi's Roger Wicker and Tennessee's Marsha Blackburn.
As GOP contenders gain more notoriety nationwide, Democrats see a tough landscape, especially when they're defending seats in states that either twice voted comfortably for Donald Trump (Montana and Ohio) or are presidential battlegrounds, according to CNN.
Republicans' edge comes as turmoil at the top of the Democratic ticket plagued much of the public's attention in recent months. As Vice President Harris is on track to become the official party nominee in next week's Democratic National Convention, some Republicans in the Senate believe that her nomination would be detrimental to Democrats in the Senate.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee said in a memo in July that "Harris is arguably a bigger threat to Democrats' Senate majority than Joe Biden," acknowledging the narrative about the president's mental fitness didn't apply as well to down-ballot races. The committee encouraged candidates to tie senators to Harris and her positions.
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