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The Street
The Street
Business
Martin Baccardax

Senate progress on funding to avoid shutdown, but Goldman sees risks

Senate lawmakers moved closer to passing a spending bill late Tuesday that would fund the federal government just days before the shutdown deadline this weekend.

Lawmakers voted 77-19 on a measure that would begin debate on an effort to repurpose a House bill, passed to fund the Federal Aviation Administration, into a new Continuing Resolution that could serve as an emergency option to fund the government should Speaker Kevin McCarthy fail to produce successful legislation in the House of Representatives. 

The Senate bill, supported by both Majority leader Chuck Schumer and his Republican counterpart Mitch McConnell, would provide funding for the government from October 1 through November 17, with around $6 billion in support for Ukraine, and another $6 billion for domestic disaster relief, reportedly included in the text. 

"We now have four days to go until funding expires on Saturday at midnight, we are now right at the precipice," Schumer said Tuesday. "Over the weekend, Senate Democrats and Republicans together worked in good faith to reach an agreement on a continuing resolution that will keep the government open beyond September 30. We are very close to finishing our work and hope to release text very soon."

Republican lawmakers, meanwhile, continue to debate various spending bills on the House floor this week as McCarthy looks to pass a so-called Continuing Resolution, or stop-gap funding bill, that would extend the current budget past its September 30 deadline. 

With only a narrow nine-seat majority in the House of Representatives, spending bills can be upended by a small minority of lawmakers, forcing Speaker McCarthy to rely on Democratic votes to ensure their passage. 

Conservative lawmakers seeking deeper spending cuts and heftier funding for border security, known as the Freedom Caucus and lead by Florida Representative Matt Gaetz, have thus far failed to support either a clean budget bill or a continuing resolution that would allow for more time to negotiate.

Others, including Tennessee's Tim Burchett, have said they will work to remove McCarthy as House Speaker if he looks to Democrats to support either a spending bill or a Continuing Resolution.

Moody's Investors Service warned earlier this week that the ongoing risk of a protracted government shutdown, which could come as early as Saturday midnight, may force it to lower the U.S.'s triple-A credit rating.

"Fiscal policymaking is less robust in the U.S. than in many Aaa-rated peers, and another shutdown would be further evidence of this weakness," Moody's said in a statement.

Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, pegs the chances of a shutdown at around 90%.

"While there is still a chance that Congress can reach a last-minute deal to extend funding past September 30, there has been little progress made and there is little time left. In the seemingly unlikely even Congress passes a short-term extension, we would still expect a shutdown later in the fourth quarter."

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