The Senate is likely to be divided when it comes to choosing a prime ministerial candidate in the next poll, which could dampen Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's chances of returning as premier after the election, according to experts.
Senate Speaker Pornpetch Wichitcholchai said senators are entitled to make different choices on the issue. Naturally, though, they would need to have a clear idea of who to vote for as prime minister in parliament before choosing the candidate.
However, no senators have made known their preference at this time out of concern they might trigger a conflict, he said.
The senators would tend to decide on the candidate primarily on the basis of whether or not the choice would lead to a stable parliament.
Mr Pornpetch's remarks came on the back of growing speculation that the senators will be split in their support, with one side chiefly backing Gen Prayut and the other favouring Deputy Prime Minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, who also leads the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP).
Gen Prayut is the presumptive prime ministerial candidate of the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party while the PPRP has vowed to nominate Gen Prawit for prime minister.
Mr Pornpetch admitted some senators were attached to certain figures. He declined to elaborate.
The senators were hand-picked by the coup-engineer National Council for Peace and Order, which is now defunct. Gen Prayut was chief of the council, which overthrew the Pheu Thai Party-led administration in 2014, and Gen Prawit wielded considerable influence over how the council was run.
The current constitution gives the Senate and the MPs a role in co-electing a prime minister in parliament. After the previous 2019 general election, the 250-seat Senate overwhelmingly voted for Gen Prayut, who was nominated by the PPRP, to be prime minister.
"Next time around, [senators'] vote for prime minister will be different, I think. It won't be so unified," the Senate speaker said.
However, Mr Pornpetch believed certain groups in the Senate might still vote the same way.
If the result of the next poll is decisive, Mr Pornpetch said the formation of the government should be swift, although the new administration should draw sufficient support from MPs to make it stable.
"The Senate will, of course, have a part to play in forging such stability, without which the House would be vulnerable to being dissolved early," he said.
Mr Pornpetch also warned the senators must avoid publicly acting in support of MP candidates in the lead-up to the next election as it would breach the legal requirement for them to remain politically neutral.
Also on Monday, Paisal Puechmongkol, a former adviser to Gen Prawit, said the next government would likely be made up of the biggest parties speculated to emerge from the election -- Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai and the PPRP.
Of the 250 senators, at least 50 back Gen Prayut and more than 100 are believed to be on the side of Gen Prawit, Mr Paisal said.
If Gen Prayut and Gen Prawit were separately nominated as prime minister, they would split the Senate and undercut the Upper House's support for each other, which in turn could hurt Gen Prayut's chances of resuming office as prime minister, he said.
Also, the UTN, being a newly-established party with a question mark hanging over the strength of its electoral base, might struggle to pull in at least 25 MP seats, the minimum number needed for a party to field a prime ministerial candidate, according to Mr Paisal.
Meanwhile, Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul said it was crucial for the next coalition government to gain the support of at least 251 of all 500 MPs from both the constituency and party list systems. However, wider majority support would keep the government in power, especially when it faces parliament votes on finance-related bills. A defeat on any such bill would prompt a collapse of the government.
Parliament president Chuan Leekpai said he would discuss with the government, opposition and Senate whips on expediting the deliberation and passage of important pieces of legislation -- including the national education bill and the charter amendment bill -- before the tenure of the current parliament meeting expires late next month.
