WASHINGTON — At the beginning of September, Democrat James Talarico was dominating the airwaves, having spent tens of millions of dollars on ads promoting his U.S. Senate bid as national Republicans publicly debated whose coffers should be tapped to rescue Ken Paxton in Texas.
Thirty days and $122 million later, it’s Talarico who is being swarmed by outside money as Republicans, led by the main outside group connected to Senate GOP leadership, have pumped unprecedented amounts of money into the Lone Star State.
The astonishing spike comes after Republicans entered September having bought less than $6 million worth of ads in the three months since Paxton locked up the nomination. Beyond the $122 million GOP spending blitz in September alone, the party has reserved another $66 million in future airtime through Election Day, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Paxton, who has been significantly outraised by Talarico, accounted for just $1.2 million of the GOP spending last month. He, too, is ramping up his activity now, launching a $20 million ad buy Friday, his first major statewide ad campaign.
Still, it’s the outside money that could fundamentally reshape a race that has leaned in Talarico’s favor, with most public polls showing the Democrat narrowly ahead. Texas PAC, the entity connected to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, has spent $131 million thus far, according to federal filings — dwarfing all other groups. President Donald Trump’s super PAC has also kicked in nearly $24 million.
Filings with the Federal Election Commission, which track independent expenditures that include TV, radio and digital ads, as well as mailers, paid text messaging and other forms of electioneering, show that outside groups from both parties have combined to spend over $205 million on the general election. Over 98% of that money has been spent in support of Paxton, funding a mix of ads promoting the attorney general and attacking Talarico, mostly aired on broadcast TV and streaming services.
By any metric, Republicans have spent an enormous amount of money to defend a Senate seat in a state where the GOP has not lost a statewide race since 1994, the longest active run of one-party dominance anywhere in the country. Democrats last won a U.S. Senate race in Texas in 1988.
What’s playing out is precisely the scenario Thune and other Senate Republicans feared during the primary, when they warned that a Paxton win over Sen. John Cornyn would jeopardize the seat and require nine figures of campaign cash in a cycle with numerous Senate battlegrounds.
All told, Texas’ 2026 Senate race had seen nearly $259 million in ad spending on the general election through the end of September, already surpassing the $202 million spent on the 2024 clash between Sen. Ted Cruz and Democrat Collin Allred.
The $259 million figure, for context, is more than 15 times what Victor Wembanyama will earn from the San Antonio Spurs next season. And it’s equivalent to over 32 million brisket sandwiches from Buc-ee’s.
That’s not to mention the expensive primaries in both parties earlier this year, especially on the GOP side. Across the primary and general elections, both parties — candidates, PACs and other outside groups — have spent a staggering $432 million on Texas’ Senate race.
Much of Texas PAC’s money has been used to relentlessly attack Talarico over his support of transgender Texans. The spots frequently include a clip of the Austin Democrat saying that “defending trans Texans is something we have to do every day,” along with repurposing a 2024 Trump ad by saying Talarico is “for they/them, not you.”
Talarico, meanwhile, has spent $61 million on ads since the general election began, per AdImpact, in which he has sought to positively define himself as a man of faith and emphasized his record as a teacher and a legislator. He has also attacked Paxton over numerous allegations of corruption and other improprieties — the very record that fueled establishment Republicans’ earlier fears of a Paxton nomination.
While Republicans are confronting the unnerving possibility of a statewide loss in Texas, they also have to play defense elsewhere. Senate contests in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Ohio have all seen tight polling, as Trump’s sagging job approval puts the GOP-controlled seats in play and draws resources away from pickup opportunities like Michigan and New Hampshire.
Texas, with 20 media markets and a bevy of competitive races, is among the most expensive states in the country for political campaigns. But the prospect of a Paxton loss appears to have forced the Senate GOP’s hand. Thune currently oversees a 53-47 majority, meaning Republicans could afford only two additional seat flips if Texas goes blue.
While Republicans flooded the airwaves in September, polls shifted only slightly in Paxton’s favor. The Texas Tribune’s poll tracker — which includes a weighted aggregate of all publicly released polls — found Talarico at 47.4% and leading by 3 percentage points on Sept. 1. One month later, Talarico is at essentially the same position — 47.3% — and now leads Paxton by a 2-point margin. That accounts for a recent internal poll from Paxton that put the Republican ahead by 3 percentage points.
While Talarico is being massively outspent, the Democrat — who has been the best fundraiser among Senate candidates in the country — is able to earn more per dollar than the outside groups because candidates have access to a lower unit rate by law.
According to AdImpact, Republicans had accounted for 72% of spending on broadcast ads in the Texas Senate race through the end of September. But that gave them just 54% of the actual broadcast airings, when measured by gross ratings points.
