New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich has a solid chance of keeping his seat in the upcoming elections, as the latest polls show him with a two-digit lead over his challenger, Republican Nella Domenici.
All polls from late August and September featured in FiveThirtyEight's aggregator show him with a comfortable lead, the smallest one being two 10-point ones: both were conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, the latest one between September 6 and 9 among 521 likely voters and showing the incumbent with 47% of the support compared to Domenici's 37%.
The other one took place between August 25 and 28 among 488 likely voters and had Heinrich with 43% of the support, while Domenici got 33%. The latest survey, in turn, shows a wider lead: published by SurveyUSA, it took place between September 12 and 18 and shows Heinrich with 47% of the support from 619 likely voters, while Domenici got 34%.
Considering these figures, Cook Political Report categorizes this race as a "solid" Democratic win.
Heinrich is considered to be a more moderate left of center Democrat, and he first took office in 2013. In 2018, Heinrich won reelection with about 54% of the vote in a three-way race against Republican Mick Rich and Libertarian candidate and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson.
Prior to his Senate tenure, he joined the AmeriCorps, worked as a mechanical engineer, managed nonprofits and founded a public affairs consulting firm.
He also was appointed in 2006 to be New Mexico's Natural Resources Trustee, spent four years on the Albuquerque City Council, and represented New Mexico's 1st Congressional District in the U.S. House from 2009 to 2013.
Domenici, on the other hand, has not previously held a public office, spending the majority of her career in the finance industry, working for large companies like Bridgewater Associates, Citadel and Credit Suisse First Boston. She also has a J.D. from Georgetown University Law Center, and a graduate degree from the Harvard Business School.
The New Mexico race has recently caught voters' attention, with tensions sharply increasing in recent weeks. Most recently, Domenici's campaign sent a cease and desist letter to Heinrich's campaign over a television ad on abortion.
"I'll never forget being in the grocery store with my daughter, when I heard that Roe was overturned," the ad begins, with a female OBGYN speaking in what looks like a medical office. "Like being crushed with a ton of bricks," another woman says. The ad also claims that a vote for her "is a vote for a federal abortion ban."
But according to her campaign, this does not accurately portray her actual views on the divisive issue.
"Nella has been unimpeachably clear in articulating her position on this very critical issue from day one," Domenici's campaign manager Noah Jennings said in a statement directed to Heinrich on social media platform X. "The fact that you now have to write a three-page letter doing more mental gymnastics than the U.S. Olympic team could handle is telling. You are lying to New Mexicans in your desperation to hold on to your political ambitions."
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