With opinion polls suggesting a close contest between Labor and the Coalition at the federal election on 21 May, the final result could come down to a handful of seats.
Here are the federal seats to watch as the election results come in:
New South Wales
Hunter
Hunter is a rural seat in coal country that covers Cessnock, Singleton and Muswellbrook. It has been Labor-held since 1936 but the party suffered a major swing against it in 2019 and the long-time member, Joel Fitzgibbon, has retired.
It is currently held by Labor with a margin of 3%.
You can read our profile of Hunter here.
Warringah
Warringah is a wealthy metropolitan seat spanning the Northern Beaches, Mosman and parts of North Sydney. Prior to independent candidate Zali Steggall snagging the seat from Tony Abbott in 2019, the seat has been Coalition-held since 1969.
It is currently held by Steggall with a margin of 7.3%.
North Sydney
North Sydney is an inner-city seat spanning 53 sq km across the harbour from the CBD. It has been held by the Coalition for all but six years since federation. However, the sitting MP, Trent Zimmerman, is facing a strong campaign from teal independent Kylea Tink and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 9.3%.
Wentworth
Wentworth is geographically the second-smallest electorate in the country, nestled into Sydney’s eastern suburbs. It is traditionally a safe conservative seat, however, independent Kerryn Phelps briefly held it following the retirement of former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. Teal independent candidate Allegra Spender is vying for the seat this time.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 1.3%.
You can read our profile of Wentworth here.
Reid
Reid is a Sydney seat that straddles the inner-west and western suburbs, extending from the Parramatta River to Croydon. Prior to 2013, it was extremely safe Labor territory until major redistribution changes in 2010 moved the seat east.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 3.2%.
You can find read our profile of Reid here.
Parramatta
Parramatta is a key western Sydney seat spanning Carlingford, Rydalmere, Toongabbie and South Wentworthville. The seat has been held by both sides of politics, but the Labor MP, Julie Owens, is retiring and the party controversially parachuted in former Kevin Rudd adviser Andrew Charlton to replace her.
It is currently held by Labor with a margin of 3.6%.
You can read our profile of Parramatta here.
Fowler
Fowler is a highly diverse electorate situated in Sydney’s south-west that takes in Cabramatta and Liverpool. It has been a safe Labor seat since its creation in 1984. However, the sitting MP is retiring and Kristina Keneally, who was parachuted in by the Labor head office, is facing a tightening contest from high-profile independent Dai Le.
It is currently held by Labor with a margin of 14%.
You can read a recent story on the race here.
Macquarie
Macquarie is a highly marginal electorate spanning the Blue Mountains and Hawkesbury regions west of Sydney, between Glenbrook and Mount Victoria. The seat has been held by Labor since 2016 but has pivoted between the two major parties.
It is currently held by Labor with a margin of 0.2%.
Gilmore
Gilmore is a rural seat on the south coast covering the Kiama and Shoalhaven local government areas, and was badly affected by the Black Summer bushfires. The sitting MP is up against high-profile Liberal candidate Andrew Constance, who gained popularity during the natural disaster.
It is currently held by Labor with a margin of 2.7%.
You can read our profile of Gilmore here.
Victoria
Goldstein
Goldstein is an inner-city seat in Melbourne’s south-east, taking in the affluent beachside suburbs of Brighton, Hampton, Sandringham and Beaumaris. It has been held by the Coalition since it was created in 1984 but teal independent Zoe Daniel has run a high-profile campaign.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 7.8%.
You can read our profile of Goldstein here.
Chisholm
Chisholm is a highly marginal seat in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, covering parts of Box Hill and Blackburn in the north to Chadstone and Wheelers Hill. It is a traditionally marginal seat, while a recent redistribution that shifted the seat south has reduced the Coalition’s margin by 0.1%.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 0.5%.
You can read our profile of Chisholm here.
Kooyong
Kooyong is an inner-city Melbourne electorate spanning affluent suburbs east of the CBD. The “jewel in the crown” of the Liberal party is being contested by teal independent Monique Ryan, and redistribution changes have partially eroded the margin of the sitting member and treasurer, Josh Frydenberg.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 5.7%.
You can read our profile of Kooyong here.
Corangamite
Corangamite sits to Melbourne’s south-west, taking in parts of Geelong and extending from Queenscliff to Torquay. New boundaries have substantially reduced the seat’s area without reducing Labor’s margin. It is a traditionally conservative seat, and three of Labor’s five wins have been since 2007.
It is currently held by Labor with a margin of 1%.
You can read our profile of Corangamite here.
Nicholls
Nicholls is a rural seat spanning 14,773 sq km west from Yarrawonga along the Murray River to Echuca, including the regional city of Shepparton. The sitting member, Damian Drum, is retiring, prompting a three-way contest in the traditionally conservative seat between the Nationals, the Liberals and popular Shepparton councillor Rob Priestly, running as an independent.
It is currently held by the Nationals with a margin of 20%.
You can read our profile of Nicholls here.
Higgins
Higgins, in Melbourne’s inner south-east, extends from Prahran to Malvern East, and takes in parts of Ashburton, Murrumbeena and Ormond. Higgins has been a Liberal seat since 1975 but a redistribution ahead of the election that added Windsor and removed part of Glen Iris and all of Hughesdale has favoured Labor.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 3.7%.
You can read our profile of Higgins here.
Queensland
Brisbane
Brisbane covers the CBD and inner-city suburbs on the northern side of the Brisbane River. Prior to a redistribution in 2010, it was safe Labor territory but has been held by the Coalition for the past 12 years. The Liberals are facing a strong contest from both Labor and the Greens.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 5%.
You can read our profile of Brisbane here.
Ryan
Ryan sits in Brisbane’s western suburbs, extending south from Mitchelton and Ferny Grove to Moggill. It has been held by Labor once since 1949 but the Greens have increased in popularity and internal Labor polling shows the party is also in contention to nab the seat.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 6.1%.
Flynn
Flynn is a rural seat with two-thirds of its voters living outside the main population centre of Gladstone, taking in farmland, coal seam gas drilling and unionised towns. The seat, created in 2007, was one of the most marginal in the country before the 2019 election. With the LNP MP retiring, One Nation and the United Australia party will have a strong influence this time around.
It is currently held by the Nationals with a margin of 8.7%.
You can read our profile of Flynn here.
Longman
Longman is a predominantly urban seat north of Brisbane stretching from Bribie Island and Caboolture to Woodford and Bellthorpe. Longman has swapped hands at four of the past five federal elections since it was created in 1996 and is shaping up to be another battle.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 3.3%.
You can read our profile of Longman here.
Griffith
Griffith covers inner-city suburbs towards the south of the Brisbane River, extending along the river from Morningside to Fairfield. It has been held by the Liberal party once since 1977 but has seen a strong preference push from Labor to the Greens.
It is currently held by Labor with a margin of 2.9%.
Leichhardt
Leichhardt covers the Cairns metropolitan area extending north along the Marlin Coast, including all the Torres Strait islands. The electorate tends to stick close to the state trend and used to be a Labor stronghold. However, Warren Entsch has held the seat for all but three years since 1996.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 4.2%.
Tasmania
Braddon
Braddon is a rural seat spanning 21,000 sq km in the north-west, covering Queenstown, Strahan, Burnie and King Island. It is more Liberal leaning than the rest of the state but the local senator Jacqui Lambie has confirmed her candidate will preference Labor above the Coalition.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 3.1%.
You can read our profile of Braddon here.
Bass
Bass spans nearly 7,900 sq km in Tasmania’s north-east, including Launceston, George Town and Flinders Island. The moderate Liberal MP, Bridget Archer, narrowly wrangled the seat from Labor in 2019 and will benefit from being preferenced above Labor by the Jacquie Lambie Network.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 0.5%.
You can read our profile of Bass here.
Lyons
Lyons is a rural seat and Tasmania’s largest, stretching along the east coast and extending west to the central and southern midlands. It has only been held by the Coalition twice since being created in 1984 but battles are historically tight.
It is currently held by Labor with a margin of 5.2%.
Western Australia
Curtin
Curtin is an inner metropolitan seat that spans the affluent western suburbs of Perth, including parts of Stirling, Mosman Park and Subiaco. It has been a safe Liberal or conservative seat since it was created in 1949. But this time, the sitting member is under pressure from independent Kate Chaney.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 13.9%.
You can read our profile of Curtin here.
Hasluck
Hasluck is an outer metropolitan seat covering Perth’s north-east corner, encompassing Guildford, Mundaring and part of Swan and Kalamunda. It has been held by Ken Wyatt since 2010 but is facing a swing to Labor.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 5.9%.
You can read our profile of Hasluck here.
Swan
Swan is an inner metropolitan seat in central Perth extending east from Como to Maida Vale. The Liberal MP, Steve Irons, is retiring after 15 years in parliament and, prior to his election, it was a swinging seat.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 3.2%.
You can read our profile of Swan here.
South Australia
Boothby
Boothby is an outer metropolitan seat spanning Adelaide’s blue-ribbon southern suburbs. The seat has been in conservative hands since the 1940s but with the sitting MP, Nicolle Flint, departing, this year is shaping up to be a three-way contest between Labor, the Coalition and teal independent Jo Dyer.
It is currently held by the Liberals with a margin of 1.4%.
You can read our profile of Boothby here.
Northern Territory
Lingiari
Lingiari covers the majority of the Northern Territory, with the exception of the Darwin municipality and most of Palmerston. It has been held by the Labor MP, Warren Snowdon, since it was created in 2001, but his departure this election may hurt the party’s support.
It is currently held by Labor with a margin of 5.5%.
You can read our profile of Lingiari here.
