LAS VEGAS — Braves pitcher Kyle Wright exemplified the attention that is required and bounty that can be reaped in betting Major League Baseball with his 21 wins last season.
On Thursday, every team opens on the same day for the first time since 1968. Armed with the new Baseball Prospectus (BP), an industry bible, and input from two experts, we will address the Cubs and White Sox.
Wright, though, deserves center stage.
Scant evidence portended greatness in the 6-4, 215-pound Alabama native. Two 2021 starts were uneventful. The Braves won that World Series, and Wright produced a sterling playoff start and two fine relief efforts.
Still, doubts lingered. The 2022 BP suggested a season in the bullpen.
On April 14, he was not among the Golden Nugget’s 91 choices for most MLB wins. In late May, William Hill didn’t list him among its 50 options for pitching triumphs and the Westgate SuperBook omitted him from its 102 selections.
A bona fide mystery. He started from the get-go, excellent in April, horrible in May. On June 1, he won in Arizona to improve to 5-3.
Two days later, he debuted on the SuperBook’s NL Cy Young list, at 40-to-1 odds. At 100-1, he soon appeared on that property’s most-wins sheet.
The Cubs beat him at Wrigley Field on June 18, but in 17 starts the rest of the way he lost only once. He finished an MLB-best 21-5, three wins ahead of the Astros’ Justin Verlander.
Wright’s SuperBook most-victories odds were capped at 40-1 a month before the season’s end, when such pools typically shutter. He finished 10th in NL Cy Young voting.
The big score was victories, showing that this stuff demands constant monitoring, a certain feel and, as usual, luck.
PUT UP OR SHUT UP
William Hill offers a Chicago proposition with the Sox spotting the Cubs 6.5 wins, at a price of -120, (risk $120 to win $100), the Cubs taking those victories at even money.
Over each team’s last three 162-game seasons, the Sox averaged 82 victories, the Cubs 76.3. So that differential is spot-on.
There are slight market differences, though, as Station Casinos pits the Sox at 83.5 wins (Over even, Under -130), the South Point projects 83 and DraftKings offers 82.5 (Over -105, Under -115).
(Prices and odds are subject to change.)
BP says the Sox finish 79-83, so those who believe the bible should shop at Stations to secure the largest differential cushion.
Chicago native Sam Panayotovich, betting analyst for the New England Sports Network and FOX Sports, still feels the sting of the White Sox.
“They burned a hole in my wallet last year,” he said. “The talent is all there, but marquee players need to stay on the field and actualize their potential. If that happens, [they] should reach 84 wins with ease.
“Having a lucid manager is a big deal, too, but it’s a put-up or shut-up year for this core.”
Pedro Grifol replaces Tony La Russa in the manager’s office. After nine productive seasons, Jose Abreu departed, too, as general manager Rick Hahn’s defensive realignments did not include the slugger.
Also, it’ll be closer-by-committee as Liam Hendriks, who collected 75 saves over the past two seasons, battles cancer.
In the AL Central, DraftKings favors Cleveland (+130), Minnesota (+215) and then the Sox (+250). William Hill released MLB odds in November, and the Sox have eked from 14-1 to 16-1 for the AL pennant, 25-1 to 28-1 for the World Series
Baseball is wheelhouse action for Long Island handicapper Tom Barton, who slightly buys what the Sox are doing but has not, and will not, risk a penny on them.
“I think they are a .500 team that has talent to win the division, but injury scares could see them in the 70-win range.”
JOKE DIVISION
The largest differentials in BP’s projections to current victory totals earmark Detroit Under 70.5 (BP has the Tigers 63-99) and Kansas City Under 68.5 (BP says 62-100) as the wisest plays.
Barton trumpeted Arizona Over 76.5 and bet -180 on Atlanta third baseman Austin Riley smacking more than 30 home runs. Panayotovich took San Diego Over 93.5.
Barton’s wife, the former Abby Sanvi, has roots in Effingham and Springfield, and was raised a Cubs fan. They might need every ounce of support they can muster, as BP projects them to go 73-89.
Stations has the Cubs’ victory total at 77.5, which DraftKings mirrors. The South Point is at 78.
Between the two squads, Barton is more optimistic about the Cubs.
“I think they’re also a .500 team, so [over] that 77.5 looks decent. Their division is a joke, so there are lots of potential wins there. Cody Bellinger was worth the risk, and I like Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer in the pen.
“Hayden Wesneski could shock everyone.”
In the NL Central, DraftKings gives St. Louis (-125) the edge, then Milwaukee (+175) and the Cubs (+650), who are 75-1 to win it all at William Hill, 35-1 for the NL pennant.
“I have valid concerns about the back end of the rotation,” Panayotovich said, “but the Cubs made some shrewd moves in free agency. That locker room is suddenly full of veterans who know what it takes to win.
“A .500 finish is very possible in Wrigleyville.”
Wright, by the way, is 50-1 on the SuperBook’s preseason NL Cy Young chart, 60-1 for most victories.
