SEATTLE — What the Seahawks can no longer do in 2022 is try to get by with a little help from their friends.
Over the holiday weekend, though, they mostly did.
Until Christmas Day, anyway, when the gifts from the rest of the league suddenly stopped coming when Green Bay pulled off an upset in Miami, 26-20, winning its third in a row to move into a tie with Seattle and Detroit at 7-8.
But the teams won’t finish in a three-way tie since Green Bay hosts Detroit to finish the season. And if Green Bay wins out to finish in a two-way tie with Seattle at 9-8, the Packers get the tiebreaker because of a better record in conference games.
Had Green Bay lost, the Seahawks would have been at 41% to make the playoffs, via fivethirtyeight.com.
Instead, the Packers’ win dropped Seattle to 32%.
Still, that’s basically right on par with the 30% chance Seattle had entering the weekend, despite a 24-10 loss to Kansas City, due to losses by everyone else in the running — Detroit (at Carolina), Washington (at San Francisco) and the Giants (at Minnesota).
And Seattle’s playoff formula remains fairly simple — win out and have Washington lose one game to either Cleveland or Dallas at home and Green Bay lose one of its final two games to Minnesota or Detroit (the Seahawks have a tiebreaker on the Lions) and, voilà, to the playoffs the Seahawks will go.
Seattle even got some help there with the Cowboys beating the Eagles and for now staying alive in the race for the NFC East and potentially having a lot to play for against Washington in the regular-season finale. Same with the Vikings still having a shot at the No. 1 seed as they head to Green Bay.
So, despite five losses in six games, the playoffs are still more than a remote possibility for the Seahawks, even if at the moment they would be out of them (with the Giants and Washington currently holding the last two spots).
“These last two games will be enormous for us, obviously,’’ Seattle coach Pete Carroll said following the loss to the Chiefs. “We are playing the championship of the season right now. That is how we are going to approach it to get it done and give us a chance to be in it in the end.”
But Seattle’s days of being able to lose and still stay in the playoff race are basically done.
Losses to either the Jets or Rams drop Seattle’s playoff odds to 11% or less, regardless of what happens anywhere else.
Part of what might seem an overly rosy calculation of Seattle’s playoff odds is that the Seahawks will be favored to win each of their final two games, each at home against the Jets and Rams.
Each has a losing record and only the Jets (with the same 7-8 record as Seattle) having anything tangible to play for, though New York’s playoff odds are scant, if a little better thanks to Miami’s loss Sunday.
But a Seattle team that has won just once since Nov. 6 can’t take anything for granted — especially after losing three in a row at home, two to teams with current losing records in the Raiders and Carolina.
And maybe befitting a team hovering around .500, the Seahawks lately have been a team that every time it seems to solve one problem, another creeps up.
Seattle’s run defense, the main reason it lost games to Tampa Bay, the Raiders and Carolina, played maybe the best it has all season in holding the Chiefs to 77 yards on 22 carries.
But suddenly a Seattle offense that remains 10th in the NFL in points at 24.3 per game can’t get it into the end zone when it really matters.
Seattle has been held to just two garbage-time TDs the last two games, and just 23 points overall.
The Seahawks have gone 4 of 13 and 2 of 14 on third down the past two games, which against the Chiefs compelled Seattle to go for it six times on fourth down.
According to statmuse.com, the six attempts are one off the NFL single-game record for fourth-down attempts. Seattle had gone for it just 12 times on fourth down before Saturday.
Seattle hit on three, but two came on the garbage-time drive, with the Seahawks failing on three others from the Kansas City 41, 34 and 29, all plays that prevented the Seahawks from making more of a game of it after the defense settled down and allowed Kansas City only 10 points in the final 38:56.
And while the defense has been better the last two weeks, holding the 49ers to 21 points (scoreless in the final 29 minutes), the defense hasn’t forced a turnover in three weeks while the offense has four — with an interception at the Kansas City at the 22 midway through the fourth quarter Saturday basically ending any suspense.
“We have to be more efficient,’’ Carroll said. “We were not efficient on third down. We need to be more consistent on offense. The last couple of weeks, defense has really started to step it up and that is what we need. … (But) we didn’t get the football today. It has been that in the last stretch of five out of six — it has been the football.’’
Seattle actually forced at least two turnovers in six straight games from weeks three to eight — the first time it had done that since 2013 — going 4-2 in those games. And Seattle has forced two turnovers in six of its seven wins this season.
But thanks to the recent turnover drought, Seattle has now been outscored 94-57 on points off turnovers this year, and 24-0 during the current three-game losing streak.
“That tells the story as much as anything, too,’’ Carroll said of the recent turnover disparity. “There are efficiency things we have to be better at too. We have to take care of the football and get the football. That is how the game works.’’
Seattle has two more chances to prove it can do it, getting victories it will need to win what is basically a five-team battle for the final two wild-card berths in the NFC behind the four division winners and either Philadelphia or Dallas as the fifth seed.
Here’s a look at each of the contenders for the sixth and seventh spots and what they have left this season:
New York Giants (8-6-1) vs. Indianapolis, at Philadelphia. Giants can clinch a playoff spot with a home win against the woeful Colts, leaving the other four teams playing for the final spot on the last weekend.
Washington (7-7-1) vs. Cleveland, vs. Dallas. Commanders will be favored to beat a struggling Browns team and make the Dallas game meaningful. Or Washington can clinch a spot if it wins next week and Seattle, Green Bay and Detroit all lose.
Detroit (7-8) vs. Chicago, at Green Bay. Lions blew a golden opportunity with a blowout loss at Carolina, and a loss to the Bears could eliminate them depending on what happens elsewhere.
Green Bay (7-8) vs. Minnesota, vs. Detroit. Packers have won three in a row and four of six to get right back in it and now finish with two in a row at Lambeau against dome teams. But a loss to Minnesota and a win by Washington next week would eliminate them.
Seattle (7-8) vs. Jets, vs. Rams: While we’ve focused on the positives so far, the Seahawks would be eliminated if they lose to the Jets and Washington beats Cleveland.
