NFL Network Analytics Expert Cynthia Freland took a look at some very important statistics from last season to determine the five most overperforming offenses in the league last year. Based on her model, which measured the difference between preseason expectations and actual game outputs, the Seattle Seahawks topped her list.
“I don’t have a way to isolate the win share of deep passes, but I can say that Geno Smith’s deep passing, especially early in the season, drives much of this final ranking,” Frelund writes. “Next Gen Stats shows that Smith’s 13 deep touchdown passes (20-plus air yards) paced the NFL in 2022. Nine of those came in the first eight weeks, and that hot start (Seattle went 5-3) changed the course of the Seahawks’ season. In the category of downfield passes (all pass attempts of 10-plus air yards downfield), Smith’s 27 TDs are tied for the most, with Josh Allen — and Smith had one fewer interception than Allen on those attempts (eight to Allen’s nine). Smith’s 112.8 passer rating on such passes ranked third among all QBs who attempted more than 50 downfield passes.”
.@cfrelund identifies the five units that most overperformed in the 2022 NFL season — plus the five units that fell the farthest short of expectationshttps://t.co/0gongoyJvL pic.twitter.com/sF2jX3sBEw
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) February 4, 2023
“The Seahawks’ pass catchers ranked 14th in win share before the season, but the combination of the O-line (which started ranked 30th and ended the season at 25th) and uncertainty at QB drove the low forecasted effectiveness of the passing offense,” Frelund continues. “Smith far exceeded that forecast, setting a franchise season record for completions (399), attempts (572), completion percentage (69.8) and passing yards (4,282). He was also the first Seattle QB to lead the NFL in completion percentage since Dave Krieg in 1991 (65.6 percent).”
In the simplest terms . . . while the Seahawks failed to go deep into the playoffs, Seattle logged a much, much better season than most predicted.
