They did their best to turn it into a celebration. They had hired the Thistle suite at Murrayfield, the home of Scottish rugby. Catering staff had laid out fresh pastries. But the mood inside was nervy. Edgy, even. No one quite knew what to think. Was this an ending or a beginning? Despite the positive spin, the upbeat exterior, this wasn’t the Scottish National party as it generally likes to be seen.
The SNP has dominated Scottish politics for decades. Now it is at a crossroads. Its leader for more than eight years has ruled almost as she pleased. Winning election after election and trusting in a party discipline that is the envy of leaders south of the border. A party way beyond the demands of normal democracy; one whose leaders normally appear by alchemy rather than through a vote of party members.
Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer would kill to have MPs as on message. Now, though, Nicola Sturgeon has called it a day. And no one quite knows why. Is it as straightforward as she claims – that she has just had enough? Or is there more to it than that? The SNP is being investigated for allegations of fraud. Sturgeon has been named in a damning report by a cross-party committee of the Scottish parliament for costing the government hundreds of thousands of pounds by declaring a preferential bidder for a ferry contract. Then there’s the economy and the NHS. Both on their knees. Many Scots would now prefer their government to be getting the basics right, rather than becoming a single-issue party for independence.
It’s been the longest short leadership campaign in history. Where hours felt like days. One riven by acrimony. One where the SNP’s sores that have been kept hidden for so long have been laid bare. Where the SNP’s mystique has been stripped away and voters have come to realise that it can be just as petty and small-minded as any other political party. A Pandora’s box. Unedifying. Disappointing. Most people with anything to do with the campaigns have been willing them to come to an end. Not least the Sturgeon continuity candidate and hot favourite, Humza Yousaf. He had somehow managed to turn a one-horse race into a close contest in less than six weeks.
But all mediocre things must come to an end. And come midday on Monday the last votes had been cast. All that remained was for the SNP to pretend this was a leadership contest that it had always wanted. No one seemed fooled. Reporters indulged in gallows humour while various SNP MPs and MSPs adopted rictus smiles and tried to act the part.
There was no sign of Sturgeon herself. She wouldn’t be there to anoint her successor. For one thing, her presence might soak up too much attention. For another, various SNP members might throw themselves at her feet and beg her to stay once they realised what they had done. There’s no denying Nicola has a presence. She looks and acts like a leader. More than can be said for the three hopefuls. All of whom, we were told, had written acceptance speeches in advance. It would be nice to think Ash Regan hadn’t spent too long on hers. She never had a prayer.
A few minutes later than advertised, the families of Yousaf, Regan and Kate Forbes filed in, followed by the candidates themselves a short while after. The SNP election organiser, Kirsten Oswald, gave a few words, declaring the election “historic” – whether this was a good thing or not, she didn’t elaborate – before inviting Lorna Finn to announce the result. No one had secured the necessary 50% on the first ballots, so it had gone to second preferences with Regan eliminated. And once those had been counted, Yousaf had won. With 52% of the vote compared with Forbes’s 48%. That ratio is turning out to be the nemesis of UK politics.
Yousaf looked more relieved than anything. As well he might. It was a lot closer than many predicted. More than anything, the SNP was just another muddle. In a straight choice between Yousaf, whom Forbes and Regan had dismissed as incompetent and mediocre, and whose time as a minister has hardly been a roaring success, and Forbes, who is against gay sex, sex outside marriage, and probably only thinks sex within marriage is allowed providing neither partner enjoys it, the SNP members had narrowly gone for the incompetent and the mediocre.
In his acceptance speech, he talked movingly of his pride in becoming the first Muslim leader of the SNP – or any UK political party, for that matter – but he was short on detail about what came next. He assured Forbes and Regan there was a place for them within his government, though quite how they might feel serving a man whose competence they trashed was left hanging.
He then ran through his to-do list: the cost of living crisis; the NHS – one in seven Scots is on a waiting list; independence. It turned out he was going to do everything. Though he couldn’t account for why Sturgeon had failed, or point to what he might do differently to succeed. It’s tricky being the continuity candidate. Especially when the sainted Sturgeon’s record is being unpicked by nearly half your own party.
Nor did things become much clearer during the Q&A with the media. He would succeed because he had a plan. Though he couldn’t say what that plan was. And he wasn’t going to fob people off with easy soundbites, he said in an easy soundbite. And he definitely didn’t think he needed to call a general election to establish a mandate, though he did think Sunak ought to have called one when he became leader. He was going to unite the country even though more than half didn’t want independence. It was all a bit underwhelming. He sounded like a leader created by ChatGPT.
There was one person with a smile on her face: Forbes. She didn’t look remotely upset to have lost. Rather, as she was surrounded by hacks at the end, she looked as if everything had worked out just fine. She had laid down a marker. It was now clear the SNP had to change. But luckily it wasn’t for her to sort out how. That was Yousaf’s headache. She could bide her time gracefully. She – along with Labour – may just have been the winner of this leadership election.
