Scottish Labour could drop to just 13 MSPs, with almost 20% of voters still undecided ahead of the Holyrood election on Thursday, a major new poll suggests.
A new multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll shared exclusively with the Press Association by More in Common spoke to more than 4,000 Scots between March 3 and April 26.
MRPs use voter intentions, demographics, previous voting behaviour and constituency information to project the number of seats parties could win.
Scottish Labour, the poll suggests, could lose out in every local constituency in the country, relying solely on the regional list for the 13 seats the party would win.
The party has dropped four seats since a similar More in Common poll two weeks ago.
Elsewhere, the SNP retains top spot, increasing by four seats since the last poll to 60, but still five short of the majority First Minister John Swinney is seeking to put more pressure on Westminster to grant another independence referendum.
Reform UK remains in second with a projected 22 seats, including constituency MSPs in Ayr and Banffshire and Buchan Coast.
The Tories sit in joint fourth with the Liberal Democrats on 12 seats and the Greens would return 10 MSPs, including a first constituency win in Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill.
Despite not being projected to win a majority, the SNP is within five points in five other seats, but is projected to win 10 other local constituencies by less than five points.
According to the poll, 18% of respondents said that they were undecided as the campaign enters its final week.
The poll also suggested a widening in constituencies, with the number of marginal seats – projected to be decided by less than five points – dropping from 39 to just 15.
Luke Tryl, the UK director at More in Common, said the SNP looks set to win, but the victory is “built on the collapse of other parties rather than a surge in their own support”.
“Our focus groups across Scotland find an electorate deeply uninspired by the choices before them, and the attitude of many we have spoken to could be best described as ‘meh’, which will see the SNP limp over the finish line with their lowest vote share in decades,” he said.
“Labour’s position looks to be deteriorating as the election approaches.
“The party that once dominated Scottish politics is now projected to win no constituency seats at all.
“This projection suggests Labour could be facing their worst Scottish defeat since devolution.
“Even where Labour is the tactical choice to stop the SNP, unionists seem unwilling to rally round Anas Sarwar’s party.
“One of the defining stories of this election is Reform.
“Four years ago they barely existed in Scottish politics – and for a long time it was assumed Nigel Farage’s party would not be able to break through north of the border.
“Now, they are on course to be the second largest party in Holyrood, overtaking Labour and the Conservatives, winning constituencies and picking up seats in every regional list.”
Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie – who would lose the Dumbarton seat she has held for 27 years if the findings of the poll come to pass – sought to brush off the poll.
“The only poll that matters is the vote on Thursday,” she said.
“After nearly two decades of SNP government, we have a chance to deliver change and fix the mess they have made of our NHS, our schools, our communities and our economy.
“Right across Scotland constituencies are on a knife edge and only Scottish Labour can beat the SNP.
“The SNP’s campaign has been defined by broken promises, half-baked gimmicks and desperate attempts to spread Reform lies.
“Reform’s campaign has been a shambles from day one and the only thing Lord Offord has a chance of winning is a yacht race with one of his six boats.
“A vote for either Reform or the SNP is a vote for more of the same broken status quo.
“Scottish Labour is fighting to defy the pollsters, win this election and deliver the change that Scotland needs.”
SNP campaign director Angus Robertson said: “This is another encouraging poll showing a SNP majority is within reach – but there can be no room for complacency and we are working hard for every vote.
“This poll shows growing SNP support as we are the only party focused on people’s priorities – taking action on food prices, delivering a £2 bus fare cap and rolling out GP walk-in centres across the country.
“Meanwhile, Labour have nothing positive to say and are barely ahead of fifth place.
“They want people to vote for an opposition to stop things happening, we are asking people to vote for an SNP government to get things done.
“The best way to ensure we can deliver is by electing a majority SNP government that supports people with the cost of living, locks out Nigel Farage and delivers the fresh start of independence that will bring down bills.”
Scottish Greens co-leader Gillian Mackay said: “If we are to build the pro-independence majority then we need to elect a record number of Scottish Green MSPs.
“Anything else risks a big backward step and the prospect of a Labour Party that will only put up more hurdles and barriers..
“We have shown the value of voting Green. With only seven MSPs we delivered free bus travel for everyone under 22, an end to peak rail fares and the scrapping of school dinner debt. With a record result we can do even more.”
