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Daily Record
Politics
Peter Davidson

Scottish independence: What every indyref2 poll has said in the last year as Supreme Court hearing begins

The UK's top court is set to hear arguments on whether Scotland can call another independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster government.

Nicola Sturgeon wants to hold another vote on Scotland's future on October 19, 2023, but the UK Government has refused permission which led to the First Minister asking the Supreme Court in London to rule if she can hold one without Liz Truss's say.

Five judges - Lord Reed, Lord Lloyd-Jones, Lord Sales, Lord Stephens and Lady Rose - will hear arguments from both sides over the next two days with an outcome expected later this year.

Ahead of the case the Daily Record has looked back at every independence opinion poll from the last year to see how both sides are doing in the debate.

Since October 27 last year there have been 23 opinion polls conducted by a number of outlets with the independence side leading in just three surveys.

Here's what the polls have said over the last year:

October 2022

October 4: Ahead of the SNP conference in Aberdeen two opinion polls gave the 'No' side a very narrow lead. A Savanta ComRes survey for the Scotsman where 1,029 people were asked about if Scotland should become an independent country found that 46 per cent said 'No' with 45 per cent answering 'Yes'.

Another poll of 1,067 people for The Times by YouGov on the same day gave the remain side a two per cent lead.

September 2022

September 16: A Deltapoll/Sun on Sunday poll gave the remain side a five per cent lead with 47 per cent saying 'No' with 42 per cent opting for the 'Yes' option.

Seven per cent of the 659 people surveyed said they did not know how they would vote if asked about Scottish independence.

August 2022

August 19: The first Scottish independence poll after Boris Johnson resigned as Prime Minster saw the 'No' side retain its lead. Another Panelbase/Sunday Times survey put the 'No' side on 48 while the 'Yes' camp achieved 46 per cent.

July 2022

July 1: A Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times earlier this year gave the 'Yes' camp a lead for the first time since February 2022 when 48 per cent of the 1,010 people asked said they wanted to leave the UK. 47 per cent of those surveyed said 'No', while five per cent were 'don't knows'.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and John Swinney will be hoping for a positive outcome (PA)

June 2022

June 1: A poll for STV by Ipsos MORI revealed that 46 per cent would vote 'No', while 45 per cent said they'd vote for independence with eight per cent saying they are undecided.

May 2022

May 25: A YouGov/Times survey found that 46 per cent chose 'No', but only 38 per cent wanted Scotland to break away from the UK. 11 per cent were undecided.

May 7: The 'No' side had a two per cent lead in a Sunday Times Panelbase poll published on April 30.

May 4: Survation's poll for the Scotsman ahead of the Scottish council election showed a two per cent lead for 'No'. 47 per cent would have voted against independence, with 45 per cent saying 'Yes'.

April 2022

April 9: A poll published for the Herald revealed that when removing undecided voters the union side had a six per cent lead.

April 4: Ballot Box Scotland's poll revealed 47 per cent for 'No' and 42 per cent for 'Yes'.

April 1: A YouGov/These Islands survey found the ' Yes ' campaign would have achieved 38 per cent, with 'No' on 44 per cent. Undecided voters made up 11 per cent which meant unionists had a five per cent lead.

March 2022

March 18: A Scotsman poll conducted by Savanta ComRes showed support for separation at 44 per cent. Of the 1,008 people asked 49 per cent said they would have voted to remain in the UK.

March 3: The Economist published the results of a poll again carried out by Savanta ComRes. Unionists had a one per cent lead.

February 2022

February 10: Nationalist were given a boost in their campaign with an Ipsos MORI poll showing a seven per cent lead in the poll in February 2022.

January 2022

January 19: A poll at the turn of the year revealed the sides were tied on 46 per cent each with eight per cent of the 1,004 people asked saying they were undecided.

December 2021

December 26: A Sunday Mail/Opinium survey also showed a tie in the results with 'Yes' and 'No' both achieving 44 per cent amongst the 1,328 people asked. 12 per cent were undecided.

December 1: STV's poll on December 1 gave independence a lead of nine per cent. It was the first time in eight polls that showed the 'Yes' side in the lead.

November 2021

November 23: At the end of November a YouGov survey for the Times gave the 'No' side a six per cent lead.

November 13: In the same month a Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times also gave the unionists a lead, this time of just two per cent.

October 2021

October 29: On the eve of the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow the unionists had a lead of three per cent in a Savanta ComRes/Scotsman poll.

October 27: A few days earlier a Panelbase poll for Scot Goes Pop gave the 'No' side a six per cent lead.

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