Peaceful transitions of power rarely make history. Europe’s litany of wars, invasions, and uprisings eclipse the far more boring tradition of well-managed plebiscites and legally recognized independence movements. Amid the horrors of 1944, who remembers Iceland’s quiet decision to separate from Denmark? But while orderly departures like this may be forgettable, they laid the groundwork for productive, sustainable, successful nations—and inspired other small nations, like Scotland, to pursue similar ambitions.
A 2014 independence referendum in Scotland delivered a “No” vote, but frustration with U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative government and fierce opposition to an unpopular Brexit has served to reinvigorate the cause. The Scottish National Party (SNP), which leads the campaign and has been in power for 14 years, scored a landslide victory in the Scottish elections in 2019. The pro-independence Scottish Greens now have five ministers in Scotland’s Parliament. A new pro-independence party, Alba, was also unveiled this month. Polls suggest that the majority of Scots now support independence, albeit one predicated on close regional relationships, including rejoining the European Union and seeking NATO membership in its own right. But what would Edinburgh’s foreign policy look like?
