EVERY Scottish Tory MP could lose their seat if Boris Johnson were to call a snap Westminster General Election, modelling has suggested.
The polling model also indicated that the SNP could be on for a landslide 55 Scottish seats, one short of their historic 2015 result which saw them win 56 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster constituencies.
The figures were calculated by pollster Mark McGeoghegan using Britain Elects’ model “Britain Predicts”.
After inputting the average of all polls in Scotland since May, McGeoghegan found that the SNP were predicted to win 55 Scottish seats, Labour two, the LibDems two, and the Tories none.
@BritainElects now allowing the input of Scotland-only figures for its election model. Here's the projected outcome based on the average of all polls since May: SNP: 55 (+7) Lab: 2 (+1) LD: 2 (-2) Con: 0 (-6) Tory wipeout. pic.twitter.com/UbT1Jmh5zK
— Mark McGeoghegan 🌻 (@markmcgeoghegan) July 6, 2022
The Conservatives currently hold six seats north of the Border, including Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross in Moray and Alister Jack in Dumfries and Galloway.
SNP deputy leader at Westminster Kirsten Oswald said the results of the poll were “encouraging”.
She said: "This is an encouraging poll, but the SNP will not take a single vote for granted. What is clear, though, is that the people of Scotland have had enough of this toxic and corrupt Tory government, and want to see them removed from every constituency in Scotland.
"However, only with the full powers of independence can Scotland rid itself of Westminster for good."
SNP MP John Nicolson added on Twitter: "So will Boris Johnson try to have an early election as a last desperate gamble? If he does, the @ScotTories would be wiped out. Deservedly so."
The model predicted Labour would win Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, a seat which Neale Hanvey narrowly won – while suspended from the SNP – in 2019. Hanvey (below right) has since defected to Alba.
Commenting on the modelling, McGeoghegan said it came “with the caveat that the electoral dynamics in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, and East Lothian may be confounding”.
He added: “The overarching drawback is that such models don't account for local variation.
“Tactical voting is one aspect of that, but they also do not account for the fact that Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath and East Lothian are represented by SNP-to-Alba defectors. Nor that Neale Hanvey was suspended from the SNP when he won in 2019. It's unclear what effect that might have in those seats."
East Lothian is currently represented by Kenny MacAskill (above left), who switched to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party in 2021.
The pollster also said it was "unlikely" that the SNP could take the seats of North East Fife or Edinburgh West "given voting patterns in the 2021 Holyrood and 2022 Local Elections".
He added: "The specifics of the model projection should be taken with some salt, but the direction of it – potential Tory wipeout, limited Labour gains, continued SNP dominance – is reliable."
If the Supreme Court rule that legislating for a second independence referendum is outwith the competence of Holyrood, then the SNP have stated an intention to use the next General Election as a “de facto” vote.
The figures used in McGeoghegan’s model, averaged of all polls since May, suggest the party would fall short of the 50% of votes it would be aiming for. However, it is unclear if votes for other pro-Yes parties such as Alba and the Greens may be enough to push it over the line.
Britain Predicts was built by Ben Walker, the co-founder of Britain Elects, with Michael Goodier and Josh Rayman of the New Statesman. It is described as “one of the more advanced daily predictors of a General Election result”.
Britain Predicts uses “a modified system of the strong transition model (STM)”. Created by Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus, this divides party support into “strong” voters who are unlikely to switch and “weak” ones who are.
McGeoghegan said the STM “tries to account for incumbency bonuses and varying propensity to switch between seats/parties”.
He added: “Should clarify that this model doesn't account for tactical voting (difficult at the best of times), so some of these [predictions] are less probable than others.
“NE Fife has thousands of Tory voters who could shore up (even grow) the LibDem majority to keep out the SNP, for example.”
The Scottish Conservatives were approached for comment.
Britain Predicts is available to use on the New Statesman’s website.
