Judges at the Supreme Court in London are used to their decisions being scrutinised by politicians. They found themselves at the heart of the protracted arguments over Brexit in 2019, and will no doubt rule on equally controversial issues in the future.
But the court’s judgement today has the potential to make an impact on Scotland like no other. It will issue a ruling on whether the Scottish Parliament has the right to stage a referendum on independence without the prior approval of Westminster.
Nicola Sturgeon asked the Lord Advocate to refer the matter to the Supreme Court earlier this year after the UK Government made it clear it would not agree to an IndyRef2. Supporters of the First Minister argue she has been forced into this position as a last resort.
The SNP leader had hoped there would be the same kind of cooperation between Holyrood and Westminster as there was when agreeing the terms of the 2014 referendum. Her party was the clear winner at the last Holyrood election and formed a pro-independence majority in parliament with the Greens.
The UK Government argues – and there are many Scots who agree – that the result from eight years ago must be respected. With no resolution in sight, Sturgeon has asked the court to attempt to unblock the constitutional log-jam.
John Curtice, the country’s top polling expert, says the country is split almost 50-50 on the issue of independence. He’s right when he says no one could predict the outcome of another referendum.
Many Scots would argue now is not the time for such a vote given all the other issues facing us – from out-of-control inflation to war in Europe and all its consequences. These views should not be discounted.
But the principle at stake today is an important one. Ultimately, it’s those living in Scotland who should decide on the future of the country. The UK Government cannot simply refuse forever more the option of another referendum.
The judges who will issue a ruling today will outline their expert opinion on what the law tells us. Yet if they decide that Holyrood cannot stage a referendum, the UK Government will come under huge pressure to find a political solution.
If they choose not to, we would be left with a scenario where the views of a majority of MSPs at Holyrood are ignored. To refuse another referendum in perpetuity would be a denial of democracy.
It should be up to Scots to decide on their future and no one else.
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