SCOTS would vote to leave the Union should an independence referendum be held tomorrow and the Conservatives face losing all of their Scottish MPs, a new poll has found.
The Ipsos survey, which was published on Wednesday afternoon, found a narrow two-point lead for Yes, on 51% compared to 49% support for staying in the Union.
The support for independence is down two-points since the pollster last asked the question in January.
Elsewhere, the poll put the SNP and Labour on level pegging in Westminster voting intention – while the Tories face a total wipeout.
Ipsos found that 36% of Scots adults said they would vote for the SNP in the General Election, while 36% said they would back Labour.
According to a seat projection run by pollster Mark McGeoghegan, that result would see both parties return 27 MPs to Westminster.
The LibDems polled at 5%, which McGeoghegan projected would see them return three MPs.
The Tories polled at 13%, which was predicted to see them lose all six of the Scottish constituencies they won in the 2019 General Election.
Nigel Farage's Reform UK polled at 4%, the Scottish Greens on 3%, and the Alba Party on 1%.
🗳️📊 New 🏴 poll from @Ipsos (+/- 25-31 Jan): Lab: 36% (+4) SNP: 36% (-3) Con: 13% (-1) LD: 5% (-1) Reform: 4% (+1) Greens: 3% (-1) Alba: 1% (nc) Seats (+/- 2019 notionals): Lab: 27 (+26) SNP: 27 (-21) LD: 3 (+1) Con: 0 (-6) (f/w 3-9 June) pic.twitter.com/V6axciZFZI
— Mark McGeoghegan (@markmcgeoghegan) June 12, 2024
In total, 55% of voters said they have definitely decided which party to vote for, while 42% say they may still change their mind before polling day.
On tactical voting, just under a quarter (23%) said they would vote with an intention to keep a party out rather than backing their preferred party's candidate.
Ipsos reported that the likelihood of tactical voting is higher among those who intend to vote Labour (34%) or Conservative (27%) than among those who intend to vote SNP (11%).
On party leaders, none received a positive rating. However, SNP leader John Swinney's negative two (40% satisfied against 42% disapproval), is far ahead of Labour leader Keir Starmer (on negative 12) and Tory leader Rishi Sunak (on negative 64).
Ipsos said that Sunak (below) had a "lower net rating than the Scottish public gave Boris Johnson ahead of the 2019 General Election (-52)".
Emily Gray, the managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, commented: “This election campaign in Scotland is about the persuadables, with 42% of likely voters saying they may change their mind by polling day.
“Although it currently looks a very close race between the SNP and Labour, there are signs that Labour may be in a stronger position than the SNP to win further voters over during the campaign.
“Of those who may change their minds, Labour is likely to be the main beneficiary, with 24% of this group saying they may switch to Labour, compared with 12% for the SNP.
“The Conservative vote looks soft, with 55% of those intending to vote Conservative saying they may change their mind – and those voters would be most likely to switch to Labour.
“Given the profile of marginal seats in Scotland, even small changes in vote share (and remember that polls have a margin of error too) can make a big difference to the final result – which means the parties still have a huge amount to play for in the remaining weeks of the campaign.”
SNP campaign director Stewart Hosie said: "This poll shows that on July 4, every vote for the SNP will be essential to get rid of this Tory government and put Scotland's interests first.
"At the start of this campaign, some polls put the SNP 10 points behind the Labour Party, on course to win seven seats – and this poll shows we're now neck-and-neck thanks to the strong and principled leadership of John Swinney.
"With Keir Starmer wedded to £18 billion of cuts, Brexit and creeping NHS privatisation, it's never been more important to vote SNP to protect our public services and secure a future made in Scotland for Scotland."
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1150 adults aged 16+ across Scotland between June 3 and 9.
