Scotland's UEFA coefficient ranking could drop as many as six places next year as a sliding doors moment threatens a significant tumble.
The nation currently sits 10th in the standings in Europe with seasons as far back as 2019/20 playing a part in the coefficient table.
However, next year, Scotland could drop to 16th in the UEFA standings with the drop off of the 2019/20 season playing a major role and the subsequent removal from calculations proving somewhat problematic for Scottish clubs.
This year's biggest sliding doors coefficient moment? Viktoria Plzeň has contributed the most association pts of any club so far. But it took a 90 + ’21 penalty to escape the #UECL 2nd qualifying round. Had Plzeň lost, 🇨🇿 would currently be ranked 20th. As it is, they are 13th. https://t.co/gqj5KaeJmZ pic.twitter.com/t1fRhTWOzJ
— Sam Svoboda (@samboda) November 13, 2023
That's because in 2019/20, both Celtic and Rangers progressed into the knockout stages helping to bank a healthy 9.750 coefficient points - the highest amount in recent seasons.
And as that total drops out of the pool for the calculations for next season, Scotland could drop to 16th behind a handful of better-performing nations leapfrogging our total. This does, however, remain dependent on future results in Europe this season.
For example, in 2019/20 Czech Republic sides scored just 2.500 in Europe compared to Scotland's 9.750 that year. Comparatively since then, the Czech Republic has scored 27.300 to Scotland's 23.500.
The importance of European results is even further exemplified by Viktoria Plzen's contributions to the Czech total this year.
The club scraped qualification through the Europa Conference League second qualification round with a penalty winner against Drita in the 21st minute of stoppage time in the second leg.
Plzen have then gone on to claim 7.850 coefficient points for the Czech Republic - the highest amount contributed by one club to a nation total so far.
Should Plzen have been eliminated then the Czech Republic would have been facing a possible 20th position for next season rather than a top 10 spot and overtaking Scotland.
So far this season, Scottish clubs have amassed 3.600 coefficient points. Rangers have banked 1.400, Celtic 1.000, Aberdeen and Hibs 0.500 and Hearts 0.200.
However, there remains potential for Celtic, Rangers and Aberdeen to add to their totals in the remaining group stage matches with Celtic and Rangers not eliminated from Europe.
Aberdeen, though, have been eliminated from their Europa Conference League group but still have two matches to play.
According to Fotcalc.com's coefficient calculator, as it stands Scotland will have five spots in Europe in 2025/26 due to the 2019/20 season still counting in the standings.
It means clubs the league winners would enter the Champions League league stage, with the runners-up entering the third qualifying round.
The Scottish Cup-winning side would enter the play-off for the Europa League, third in the league going into the Europa League second qualifier and fourth in the league going into the Conference League second qualifying round.
The issue could arise in European qualification spots in 2026/27 when the 2024/25 rankings impact continental places.
