Scotland’s population has grown at the lowest rate of any nation in the UK and is ageing at the fastest rate on record, according to the first data from last year’s census.
National Records of Scotland (NRS) estimated the country’s total population was 5,436,600 last year. Its increase of 141,220, or 2.7%, was driven entirely by inward migration.
Without people moving to Scotland, its population would have fallen by 49,800 since 2011, as deaths outstripped births. By comparison, overall population rose by 6.3% in England and Wales, and by 5.1% in Northern Ireland.
The data, produced after Scotland’s census drive last year was hit by high abstention rates, showed the country’s population was older than before – a rise partly driven by the post-second world war boom in births.
The number of people aged over 65 was 1,091,000, with a significant proportion of older people living in remote rural areas, often alone.
In Argyll and Bute on the west coast, Dumfries and Galloway, South Ayrshire, the Western Isles and the Borders, older people made up more than 26% of residents. In Glasgow it was 14% and Edinburgh it was 16%.
The Scottish government decided to delay staging Scotland’s census by a year until 2022, blaming the Covid crisis, even though the rest of the UK stuck with 2021 as planned. While the census in England and Wales had a 97% response rate, engagement in Scotland floundered, leading to extensions to the response deadlines, warnings that non-responders faced prosecution, and a £140m total bill.
With response rates particularly low in the poorest neighbourhoods, the Office for National Statistics diverted its Scottish field research staff from ONS projects to help NRS find enough people to go door-to-door to implore householders to fill in the census returns.
NRS confirmed on Thursday that Scotland’s overall return rate was 89.8%, which slightly reduced the statistical confidence rate in its figures. To fill in the gaps, NRS used “administrative data” held by other government agencies, such as the NHS and local councils.
Janet Egdell, NRS’s chief executive, was asked by an ITV Borders reporter what she believed was behind the low response rate. She initially replied: “Who knows? Perhaps I shouldn’t say that.”
Egdell, who took over as interim chief executive after the decision to delay the census was taken, went on to say it was an “important question” that would be evaluated after all the data was published. Further detailed releases are due next year.
She confirmed one key question would be whether the next census, due in 2031, would be aligned again with timings in the rest of the UK. Many critics of the Scottish government’s decision to delay the census say it contributed to the lower response rates.
Scotland’s ageing population trends are made more acute by the lower number of under-15-year-olds in Scotland. For the first time, the number of under-15s has fallen significantly below that of over-65s to 832,600; the number of over-65s in Scotland has risen by 22.5% since 2011.
Economists believe a lower proportion of younger workers increases the financial pressures on governments, because their wealth creation is likely to fall in proportion to the growing cost burdens of supporting an older population.
The Scottish Conservatives claimed the higher income tax rates and public service failures were to blame for Scotland’s lower population growth.
Angus Robertson, the Scottish constitution, external affairs and culture secretary, said the population challenges were worsened by Brexit, which made it harder to attract European migrants to Scotland.
