Forget what has gone before this summer. The wins at home against second string Italian and French outfits were gently reassuring. But today is – comfortably – the most significant test yet of Scotland's World Cup credentials.
A defeat would not automatically spell doom for the team's prospects of progressing to the knock-out stages out of the trickiest pool in this (and arguably any previous) tournament. Scotland are, after all, up against the second ranked team in the world, fully-loaded, playing on their own patch, and with a home World Cup looming over the horizon in less than a month's time.
We're still a month out from the tournament. Teams are still working things out. A dignified defeat would be entirely okay.
But if they fail to front-up – fail to put France under real pressure – then it will look pretty ominous for Gregor Townsend's team as they approach their tournament opener at the main event against reigning champions South Africa in Marseilles on 10th September.
This may well be the phoney war. And nobody wants to fire all their bullets before reaching the real gunfight. But rugby is a momentum sport, and we need to see three key pieces of evidence from the Scots tonights so as to be re-assured that they can hit the ground running in 29 days' time. They need to be at least competitive in that match to give themselves a fighting chance of still being relevant when they face Ireland in their final pool match on 9th October in Paris.
Firstly, the scrum and line-out needs to stack up for 80 minutes against one of the best set-piece teams in the international game. South Africa and Ireland also excel in this area, and the evidence from Scotland's two previous matches in this World Cup warm-up period is that they are prone to lapses at key moments.
Secondly, Scotland need to get close to something resembling parity in the battle of the breakdown. The selection of Rory Darge at openside flanker ahead of Hamish Watson feels like recognition of a changing of the guard, while Jamie Ritchie's return from a calf injury at blindside will add an extra edge, but the real test is whether the old warhorses of Grant Gilchrist and Richie Gray (both aged 33) can still provide the second wave any successful international team needs from their middle-rows.
Both were conspicuously low-key against France's second string at Murrayfield last weekend, but deserve an extra week to hit their stride. However, if they don't deliver tonight, then Scotland could be in for an extra long 80 minutes.
Thirdly, Scotland's midfield triumvirate of Finn Russell, Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones need to not only click but stay injury-free, because so much of Scotland;s game-plan is built around this three-pronged attack that losing even one of them for the big event doesn't bare thinking about.
These questions will be answered in the fullness of time, and the one thing returning captain Jamie Ritchie is sure of is that a lack of match fitness will not be an impediment to the team achieving all that it is aspiring towards – especially after spending the last weekend based in Nice in the south of France acclimatising for both this match and the tournament proper.
“It means we've adapted to what it's going to be like out here, particularly on the training side of things,” he said. “We're in a great place and our training sessions have been really consistent – they've started well, and they've finished well.
“There's not been a session where we've dropped off, even in the heat, which is testament to the guys' fitness and how hard we've worked.
“Personally, I'm feeling good and I’m really excited to get back playing,” he added, recognising that this is the first hit-out of Scotland’s World Cup warm-up schedule after recovering from a calf injury.
“I got more or less a full pre-season in last year but the start of that was probably inhibited by the fact I'd been out for eight months with a hamstring tear, so this is the first full pre-season I've had off the back of a full season of playing and I'm feeling in really good shape.
“We want a fast start, so that is something we have worked on by bringing it into our sessions all week, and we’re looking for more of an 80-minute performance,” Ritchie continued.
“We take loads of confidence from last week in that we didn't necessarily start that well, but we fought to come back and have a really great finish. Our fitness showed in that game because we really started to peak towards the end and played some of our best stuff.
“We also felt we were the better team when we played France in the Six Nations back in February. We were all a bit gutted after that game because we felt we were the better team but did not get over the line. So, we are looking forward to having another crack at them.”
Looking good in training, and in warm-up matches, is one thing. Delivering when the stakes are ramped up by a top class team is something entirely different. It's going to be interesting,
Scotland (v France at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Etienne, Saturday 8.05pm): D Kinghorn; K Steyn, H Jones, S Tuipulotu, D van der Merwe; F Russell (VC), A Price; P Schoeman, G Turner, W Nel, R Gray, G Gilchrist (VC), J Ritchie ©, R Darge, J Dempsey. Substitutes: S McInally, R Sutherland, J Sebastian, S Cummings, S Skinner, J Bayliss, G Horne, O Smith
France (v Scotland at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Etienne, Saturday 8.05pm): T Ramos; D Penaud, G Fickou, J Danty, G Villiere; E Ntamack, A Dupont ©; C Baille, J Marchand, D Aldegheri, C Woki, T Flament, P Boudehent, G Alldritt, C Ollivon. Substitutes: P Bourgarit, J Gros, U Atonio, F Verhaeghe, B Chalureau, S Macalou, M Lucu, L Bielle-Biarrey.
