Senior Trump advisers are telling top GOP donors that a pair of upcoming Supreme Court decisions are likely to bolster Republicans in the 2026 midterms — and transform the party's power to win elections for years.
Driving the news: Trump lieutenants Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio told donors at a Republican National Committee retreat over the weekend that rulings on political contribution limits and congressional redistricting could be transformational for Republicans — if they go the GOP's way.
- LaCivita and Fabrizio — who steer the president's cash-flush political operation and were senior strategists on his 2024 campaign — expressed confidence in the midterms despite doomsday projections about the party's prospects.
- During a Q&A session with RNC chair Joe Gruters in New Orleans, LaCivita told donors the decisions by the conservative-led high court "have the ability to upend the political map," a person in the session told Axios.
The two cases Trump's team believes could help Republicans maintain power:
1. Louisiana v. Callais
The court — which has a 6-3 conservative supermajority — is set to decide whether to gut Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, the 1965 law that prohibits the dilution of minority voting power in congressional redistricting plans.
- The law has resulted in the creation of "majority-minority" districts that ensure voters in predominantly Black areas can be represented by minorities.
- For years, Republicans have sought to weaken the law, arguing that it's federal overreach and unfairly creates Democrat-friendly districts.
- Democrats say the law prevents discrimination and ensures that minority voters are represented in Congress.
Court watchers say a majority of the justices appeared poised to weaken the Voting Rights Act based on oral arguments in October.
The liberal-leaning Fair Fight Action has warned that overturning the law could result in Republicans dismantling as many as 19 Democrat-held majority-minority seats ahead of the midterms — "enough to cement one-party control of the U.S. House for at least a generation."
- That, however, would require the court to rule quickly: Candidate filing deadlines in several states are coming up soon, and some already have passed.
- If the court overturns the law after next year's filing deadlines, it would impact congressional line-drawing for the 2028 election.
Republicans also are engaged in a Trump-backed mid-decade redistricting effort aimed at shoring up their tenuous House majority.
- It has run into some complications, as Democrats have launched a counter-redistricting push in several states targeting Republican-held districts.
2. National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) v. Federal Election Commission (FEC)
Oral arguments will be held Tuesday for this case, in which the justices will decide whether to eliminate a federal law that limits the amount of money big-money party committees can spend in direct coordination with favored candidates.
- Republicans argue the law violates the First Amendment and free political speech.
- Democrats say the law curtails corruption, and prevents major donors from flooding a candidate's coffers with massive sums.
- The case is widely seen as the most consequential campaign finance-related dispute to land before the court since the landmark Citizens United decision in 2010 that lifted restrictions on political spending by corporations, unions and other groups.
Campaign finance experts predict Republicans would benefit more if the court overturns the law because the GOP relies heavily on billionaire mega-donors such as tech mogul Elon Musk, casino executive Miriam Adelson and hedge fund manager Ken Griffin.
- Democrats also have big donors but are more dependent on small contributions.
