Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and his allies are planning to spend roughly $10 million in the next four weeks.
- "That's a round number," Cornyn told Axios.
Why it matters: Cornyn is targeting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) to turn the three-way Texas Republican Senate primary on March 3 into a two-man showdown.
- "We're gonna be in a runoff, so we got to pay attention to both of them," he said.
- The expected run-off is on May 26th. That's forcing Cornyn and his allies to calculate when to start draining down his sizable cash advantage.
Zoom out: $65 million has already been spent on TV advertising by Republican groups and super PACs, according to AdImpact.
- But if Cornyn loses the primary, avoiding a general election loss could be even more exorbitant for the Republican Party.
- The contest has been a headache for party leaders for months, as they weigh when — and how much — to spend to ensure the seat stays in the GOP column.
At a closed door briefing on Tuesday, Brendan Jaspers, the NRSC's political director, shared polling showing Cornyn would comfortably win a general election in Texas if he emerges from a contested primary.
- But trying to get Paxton across the line could cost hundreds of millions of dollars, he said.
The bottom line: Cornyn ended the year with $15 million in the campaign accounts he controls. A super PAC supporting him, Texans for a Conservative Majority, reported $5 million cash on hand at the end of the year.
- Paxton's campaign reported $3.7 million at the end of the year in cash on hand. A super PAC supporting him ended the year with $2.8 million in cash on hand. It wasn't very aggressive in 2025.
