Saturday’s Racing Tips
- Deep Havana (Ayr, 14.30) – 1pt each-way @ 10/1 (Unibet)
- Dark Issue (Ayr, 15.05) – 1pt win @ 11/4 (Bet365)
- Far Above Dream (Ayr, 15.40) – 2pts each-way @ 17/2 (William Hill)
- Arapaho Gold (Newbury, 14.12) – 3pts win @ 6/5 (Bet365)
There’s plenty of racing to get stuck into on Saturday, including the highlight of the Scottish flat racing season in the form of the Ayr Gold Cup, while there’s group action at Newbury, both of which feature in my Saturday racing tips.
Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap (14.30, Ayr)
Any race where betting sites go 8-1 the field is going to be a tough one to solve, and this Gold Cup consolation race looks just that, but we’ll have a go.
Favourites are 2-10 in the past decade, so a lower than average strike rate but not too bad considering how open these races usually are.
In terms of the draw, it’s another Ayr sprint where in the past decade low, high and middle numbers have all had a share of success, so there’s not a definitive pointer in that respect, nor is there a strong nudge towards high or low numbers on the forecast soft ground.
Havana Blue would be very high on the list for me, had it not been for soft ground, as all his better form is on a sound or fast surface. His stable companion Desert Falcon has course winning form and cannot be ruled out, while Trilby is of interest, particularly with his penchant for cut in the ground and DEEP HAVANA is another who may well act on soft going.
The Hamad Al Jehani-trained gelding won a 6f novice event at Chelmsford in 2023 before finishing second on four successive occasions in Qatar. Returning to these shores, he shrugged off a 500-day absence to win narrowly at Thirsk (6f, good). He’s got scope to improve further as he’s had just eight starts and I think an each-way interest on horse racing betting sites looks prudent.
Saturday racing tip 1: Deep Havana – 1pt each-way @ 10/1 (Unibet)
Ladbrokes "New Customers Get 50/1 Old Firm Offer" Firth Of Clyde (Challenge Cup) (Group 3) (15.05, Ayr)
Some talented fillies on show here, not least the favourite Silent Beauty. I was at Ripon when she won a Listed contest last month, when it rained heavily and softened things up. She coped with that well and won decisively. She’s clearly in great nick at present and could take some beating.
However, the bare form of that success wasn’t quite as good as the ½L second by DARK ISSUE in the Group 3 Dick Poole Stakes (6f, good to soft) a few days later and despite having won just one of her four starts, the daughter of Dark Angel should also have more to come.
Trainer Richard Hannon clearly rates her, as he wouldn’t have already aimed her at two races at this level, the first of those proving to be a below par effort at Ascot (6f, good to firm) in July.
She’s proven over this trip and also now on slow ground. If she is able to run to her best then she looks the value bet at the relative prices of the front two in the market on betting apps and they do look to be the likely pair to fight it out.
Saturday racing tip 2: Dark Issue – 1pt win @ 11/4 (Bet365)
Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) (15.40, Ayr)
In terms of prices, this is not as often a race for shocks as is sometimes suggested, with two of the last ten winners being a top-priced 28/1 in landing the prize, three favourites having won in that period and several others towards the head of the market.
Nonetheless it’s a tough contest to fathom due to the sheer volume of runners and you could spend a day studying it and still not find the winner! Binhareer heads the market this time. He’s trained by William Haggas, who has saddled one of those last ten winners of this race.
The favourite is essentially a Group horse running in a handicap and it may be that he just has too much class for this field. However, his price is skinny enough when there is the potential for traffic issues on route. He does have plenty of positives though, not least his ability over this trip and ground and if you’re intent on siding with him I’m not going to say he won’t win.
Twilight Calls has been red hot in these types of contest all season and he could again go well. However, he ran out of gas at Doncaster, close to home, last week, and that was over slightly shorter than this. All his best form is over the minimum trip and they go some gallop here, which might find him out late on again.
I’m looking for a little bit of value, with Fine Interview, Tuco Salamanca and Dance In The Storm among those meriting serious scrutiny but the slide rule has come down on FAR ABOVE DREAM.
James Owen’s gelding is another ultra-consistent sort in these types of races. He won his first two starts of the season (both 6f), ran a big race when fourth in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, was not far away (2L sixth) in the Stewards’ Cup at Glorious Goodwood, before a career best when pipped by a nose at York last time (6f, good to soft) places (or more if your bookmaker offers it) in this field.
Saturday racing tip 3: Far Above Dream – 2pts each-way @ 17/2 (William Hill)
Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (14.12, Newbury)
After a couple of tough handicaps at Ayr, where going to turn to the classiest race on the Newbury card for this selection. It probably won’t take a genius to work it out but it’s with some confidence that I’m siding with ARAPAHO GOLD, who really has made a big impact in this, his juvenile campaign.
He appears to be the apple of trainer Michael Dods’ eye and there’s no wonder. He’s unbeaten in four starts, winning three on fast ground and then showing he can handle easier conditions at York last time. While he has bags of toe, he also saw out 6f right through the line on good to soft and the forecast of good ground here ought to be perfect.
He has pounds in hand on this field, as well as better speed figures and yet he’s odds against at the time of writing, on account of Andrew Balding (whose late father Ian is remembered by the title of this contest) running Jolivette.
Realistically, that filly and Nabati are the only two in the field on all known form who could throw down a serious challenge but if the selection runs to the level he did at York, they’ll need to improve a fair bit to beat him.
Saturday racing tip 4: Arapaho Gold – 3pts win @ 6/5 (Bet365)
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