San Diego State Vs Nevada: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
The Wolf Pack will host the San Diego State Aztecs on Saturday as Nevada hopes to snap a five game losing streak.
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Nevada Returns To Reno Hoping To Snap Five Game Losing Streak Against The Aztecs
WEEK 7: Nevada Wolf Pack (2-5, 0-3 MW) vs. San Diego State (3-3, 1-1 MW)
WHEN: Saturday, October 22nd –7:30 PM PT/8:30 PM MT
TV: CBS Sports Network
STREAMING: CBS Sports Network available on the streaming sites such as Fubo and Hulu Live. (Click here to subscribe to Fubo)
RADIO: Nevada is on ESPN 94.5 in Reno and San Diego State is on San Diego Sports 760.
SERIES RECORD: San Diego State leads the series 8-6. Last meeting was in 2021 in Carson, CA when the Aztecs won 24-21.
WEBSITES: NevadaWolfPack.com, the official Nevada athletics website | GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website.
ODDS: San Diego State (-7)
SP+ PROJECTION: San Diego State by 3.2
FEI PROJECTION: San Diego State by 3.3
The Nevada Wolf Pack return to Reno to take on the San Diego State Aztecs on Saturday night.
The Wolf Pack lost their fifth game in a row last Saturday when they lost to Hawaii on the road 31-16. No sugarcoating it, Nevada was simply outclassed by Hawaii and could not keep pace with the Rainbow Warriors. Now Nevada is 2–5 and hopes for a bowl bid seem very, very distant. Nevada is now playing for pride with five games left in this brutal 2023 season.
The Wolf Pack are taking on a San Diego State team that is 3-3 and coming off a bye week. The Aztecs last game was a 16-14 victory in Honolulu over Hawaii back on October 8th.
San Diego State is not playing like a top level Group of 5 team from years past but they have won enough games to stay alive in the race for the Western division of the Mountain West.
Can the Wolf Pack break their five-game losing streak by defeating the Aztecs?
Here are my three keys and a prediction for Nevada-San Diego State
Do a better job at defending the run
Last week against Hawaii, the Wolf Pack gave up a total of 223 rushing yards at an average of 4.8 yards per attempt. Dedrick Parson was responsible for 136 of those rushing yards Hawaii put up against the Wolf Pack. The Wolf Pack’s run defense was like swiss cheese on Saturday night with all the holes for Hawaii’s offense to run through with little resistance.
The Aztecs once again have a good run offense and a dismal passing offense. The Aztecs fired their offensive coordinator early in the season and have been their usual run-oriented selves The Aztec rush offense is averaging 176 yards on the ground this season which is good for third in the Mountain West conference in that statistic.
While the SDSU run offense has been good, the passing offense is still pretty bad. SDSU is only completing 48.9 percent of their passess this season and averaging only 108 passing yards per game . Both of those passing stats are good for next to last in the Mountain West for San Diego State. The Aztecs announced on Tuesday that Jaylen Mayden will start at QB over Braxton Burmeister in the hopes that Mayden can jump start the passing offense.
Even with change at QB, San Diego State is good at running the ball and that is about all they are good at on the offensive side of the ball. Nevada has to play better defense against the run if they are going to stand a chance on Saturday night.
If Nevada struggles to defend the run, then expect Aztec running backs Jordan Byrd and Jaylon Armstead to put up numbers similar to what Hawaii’s Dedrick Parson put up against the Wolf Pack last week.
Give the ball to your veteran running backs in Taua and Lee
In last week’s loss to Hawaii, running backs Toa Taua and Devonte Lee combined for 20 carries for 25 yards.
Toa and Lee are supposed to be the main playmakers for the Wolf Pack this season and for them to only carry the ball a combined 20 times is not acceptable.
Nevada’s offense has so few options and it behooves the Wolf Pack coaching staff to get the ball into the hands of Taua and Lee as many times as they can on Saturday.
Against Hawaii, the Wolf Pack also got Oregon transfer Cross Patton involved in the running game. That can only help the Wolf Pack develop another option to use on offense.
But Nevada must get Toa Taua and Devonte Lee involved early and often on offense. Nevada’s putrid offensive line must step up their play and provide running lanes for Taua and Lee to get going on offense if they are to win on Saturday.
Speaking of Nevada’s poor offensive line….
Find an actual strength and build on that.
After seven games, the 2022 Nevada Wolf Pack have no discernible strengths to carry them through the remainder of this season.
The Wolf Pack are ranked at or near the triple digits in pass offense (118th),run offense (99th) an alleged strength going into the season) and run defense (110th). The lack of a good pass and rush offense can be attributed to poor offensive line play which has been an issue for Nevada for almost a decade.
The only thing that Nevada is good at is forcing turnovers (9th in the nation in turnover margin) but relying on an opposing team to give up multiple turnovers is not a sound strategy (it is like putting all of your assets into Bitcoin).
With bowl eligibility pretty much gone, Nevada and its coaching staff must find some type of strength the team can build on. It probably won’t do much to get Nevada back to winning football but it will be a good step towards building positive momentum heading into the offseason.
Finding an area of strength can help Nevada carve out an identity and something to build on for 2023. It needs to start this week against San Diego State.
Prediction and Score
For Nevada to have a chance to defeat San Diego State, they must shore up their run defense after an abysmal performance last week against Hawaii. On offense, Nevada must get the ball to their playmakers such as Toa Taua, Devonte Lee and wide receivers like Jamaal Bell in order to move the ball and score points.
However, I just don’t think Nevada is capable of consistently getting the ball to their playmakers on offense and moving the ball to score points. Also, Nevada is not good on either the offensive or defensive side of the ball this season. The regular and advanced stats show that Nevada is abysmal and there are no signs that the Wolf Pack will get better anytime this season.
The Aztecs are far from an elite team but they have enough on defense and a new QB in Mayden that they should defeat Nevada on Saturday.
Score Prediction: San Diego State 28 Nevada 17
