Sam Warburton believes Wales have a "shot to nothing" as they bid to defend their Six Nations title amid plenty of high-profile injuries.
Justin Tipuric, Josh Navidi and Ken Owens are all ruled out of the upcoming 2022 tournament, which sees Wales host France, Scotland and Italy in Cardiff, while Alun Wyn Jones, Taulupe Faletau and George North will miss at least the bulk of it.
Wales recorded two wins from four - against Fiji and Australia - during the autumn when their squad was also injury-ravaged, but they are not being given much hope by the bookies, at least, to become back-to-back winners given the recent form of England, Ireland and France - who denied Wales a Grand Slam last year - plus a resurgent Scotland side in the mix.
"I think they have a shot to nothing, given their injury problems and the way Covid cancellations and postponements have affected their regional teams," Warburton writes in his column for The Times.
" It was a similar position last year in all honesty, when they went on to become champions, riding some luck along the way with all the opposition’s red cards, and ironically the game in which they probably played their best — against France — they lost.
"The one thing I will say about Wales is that maybe we have not praised their discipline enough. What they are very good at is staying in games, staying within seven to ten points and then backing their fitness, but I do worry that for this campaign they have not got the experienced players they had last year to help them through those tough periods."
While he admits France are his favourites to claim this year's Six Nations trophy, Warburton also warns that Scotland should not be discounted.
After Scotland led 17-8 at half time against Wales last year, a second-half try from Gary Graham was disallowed for blocking, Liam Williams hit back with a try to narrow the gap to two points and then Zander Fagerson's sending off swung momentum Wales' way to win 25-24.
"I remember talking to Stuart Hogg about this and saying that had that try been allowed, that would have been the game for Scotland and they could easily have gone on to win the Championship instead," he explains.
"Scotland have improved a great deal and if I were head coach Gregor Townsend, I would be highlighting that moment and telling my players how close they are. There will be a lot of focus on France, Ireland and England leading into this year’s competition, but Scotland are genuine contenders too in my opinion."
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