KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The Chiefs are on to the AFC Championship Game once more, albeit not at full strength.
They await Buffalo or Cincinnati.
In Kansas City ... or at Atlanta.
The Chiefs secured their spot in a fifth straight AFC title game with a 27-20 win on Saturday against the Jacksonville Jaguars at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, though it came at a cost.
Star quarterback Patrick Mahomes left the game in the first half, and then returned in the second, with a high-ankle sprain. He hobbled throughout the second half.
But the win sets up yet another link in a trend. Or an NFL first. The Chiefs will either host the conference title game for a fifth straight season — or they could play at a neutral site for the first time ever.
That’s up to the Bengals and Bills, who play at 2 p.m. Sunday in Buffalo. If the Bills win, they will meet the Chiefs in Atlanta next weekend. If the Bengals win, though, they’ll be headed to Kansas City in search of their fourth straight win against the Chiefs.
Let’s look at the potential matchups with each, and consider that Mahomes’ looming health will play a big part in whichever matchup it turns out to be.
Bills (13-3 regular season, AFC East champ, No. 2 seed)
The Bills have been Football Outsiders’ top team for the bulk of the season, and they remain so now. The problem in this potential matchup is the Bills just don’t have any glaring weaknesses. They’re second in offense, fourth in defense and first in special teams, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics.
They are, however, notably different than when they won in Kansas City in Week 6 — future Hall of Fame edge rusher Von Miller is out for the season. His acquisition was among the biggest in the AFC arms race last offseason, and it made perhaps the biggest impact in the Bills’ regular-season win.
Still, they finished the year as the NFL’s fourth-ranked overall defense and had the same ranking against the pass. There is no team in football better at defending tight ends this year, and that’s obviously where the Chiefs prefer to throw the football.
Defensively, you’re basically banking on quarterback Josh Allen making some mistakes, which to be fair, he’s been prone to do. He led the NFL with 19 turnovers in the regular season, despite playing one fewer game. He has fumbled the ball an astounding 16 times, including three in the wild-card scare against the Dolphins. He’s turned it over seven times in his last three appearances.
According to ESPN, only two quarterbacks in the last 45 years have paced the league in turnovers and reached a conference championship game.
But he’s still quite good nonetheless, still good with both his arm and his feet, still has a true No. 1 in Stefon Diggs, and he’s not going to fear playing the Chiefs. In the last two meetings with KC, he has thrown for 658 yards and seven touchdowns, and he’s rushed for 100 yards on 5.9 yards per carry.
In all, the Bills have been the best team in football this season. That’s still my opinion, even if the Chiefs clipped them for the No. 1 seed. The ensuing difficulty ratings are based on a curve, and the Bills set that curve.
— Difficulty rating: 10/10
Bengals (12-4 regular season, AFC North champ, No. 3 seed)
A lot has been made of the Bengals quote-unquote solving the Chiefs, and when you beat a team three times in 12 months, it’s hard to diffuse that narrative.
We should keep in mind, though, that all three came by just a field goal, one of them in overtime. So the Chiefs have some things to turn around, yes, but they’re not at the back of the field, needing to lap every car in the race just to catch the leader.
The Bengals are a good team — they all are this time of year — but they seem to be at their very best against the Chiefs. They tend to win up front — both sides of the line — which is a bit peculiar considering that’s not exactly their biggest strength against anyone outside of Kansas City.
Especially now. The Bengals are missing three offensive linemen — though they claim two of them have the potential to return during these playoffs — and they already ranked below average at pass protection, even as quarterback Joe Burrow has made a notable effort to get rid of the football more quickly.
The Chiefs have just one sack in each of their last two meetings with the Bengals. That can’t happen. This is where you have to beat them, considering their wide receiver trio is the very best in the league.
Same story on the other side of the ball. The Bengals are 29th in the NFL in sack percentage, despite blitzing a bit more than those numbers would indicate, yet they give the Chiefs fits. They train their linemen to stay in their respective lanes against the Chiefs to prevent Mahomes from scrambling and extending plays — something that already will be at stake with the ankle injury. Which means someone is going to have to break open on their own.
That’s doable, by the way. The Bengals allow the 23rd most passing yards in the league, and they particularly struggle on third downs. They tend to defend top receivers well, but some secondary options can pry loose. That’s actually precisely how the Chiefs have designed their offense — dating back to the offseason trade off Tyreek Hill.
But we’re in a believe-it-when-we-see-it stage with this matchup. This is the only team to beat Patrick Mahomes three times in his career.
— Difficulty rating: 9/10
