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Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles Times
Sport
Sam Farmer

Sam Farmer's Week 11 NFL picks

The Los Angeles Times' NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week's matchups. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Last week's record 7-7 (.500); season 89-60-1 (.597). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 8-6 (.571); season 71-76-3 (.483). Off: Jacksonville, Miami, Seattle, Tampa Bay. Times Pacific.

Titans (6-3) at Packers (4-6)

Thursday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Packers by 3. O/U: 41.

A home game on a short week favors the Packers, who are coming off a big win. Titans are banged up, especially on defense, but Derrick Henry can do some damage against this bad run defense.

Prediction: Packers 21, Titans 20

Browns (3-6) at Bills (6-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 8 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

After an emotional loss, the Bills bounce back in a big way with Josh Allen carving up a suspect secondary. The Browns were pushed around by the Dolphins last week to drop to 1-3 on the road.

Prediction: Bills 34, Browns 17

Eagles (8-1) at Colts (4-5-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Eagles by 6 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Colts are riding high after beating the Raiders in Jeff Saturday's coaching debut. Jonathan Taylor should get some traction against a shaky Eagles run defense, but Philly will rebound from loss.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Colts 18

Jets (6-3) at Patriots (5-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Patriots by 3 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

Prove-it game for the Jets, who never seem to be able to beat the Patriots. Watch for Jets to establish the run and lean on Zach Wilson and a short passing game. Lot at stake. Visitors can win this.

Prediction: Jets 24, Patriots 21

Bears (3-7) at Falcons (4-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Falcons by 3. O/U: 49 1/2.

The Bears have made games interesting with Justin Fields running, even though they've lost six of seven. The Falcons aren't much better and just got thumped by Carolina. Chicago finally gets it done.

Prediction: Bears 28, Falcons 24

Panthers (3-7) at Ravens (6-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Ravens by 13. O/U: 41 1/2.

Baltimore is better but the Panthers have some grit and can hang in games when they're big underdogs. The Ravens eventually pull away in this matchup, but Carolina makes it interesting.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Panthers 16

Commanders (5-5) at Texans (1-7-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Commanders by 3 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Could be a trap game for Washington, which has won four of five and spoiled Philadelphia's bid for a perfect season. Commanders should be able to control the clock with the run, but it's close.

Prediction: Commanders 23, Texans 21

Rams (3-6) at Saints (3-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Saints by 4 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

Matters already were going poorly for the Rams, and then they lost Cooper Kupp to ankle surgery. Saints are in a spiral, too, having scored a total of 23 points the last two games. But they're at home.

Prediction: Saints 18, Rams 14

Lions (3-6) at Giants (7-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Giants by 3. O/U: 44 1/2.

After losing five in a row, the Lions have won two straight and are gathering confidence. Saquon Barkley should take a pin to that balloon, though, and Detroit will have a tough time stopping him.

Prediction: Giants 31, Lions 27

Raiders (2-7) at Broncos (3-6)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Broncos by 2 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Just wince, baby. Neither coach inspires confidence. Barring a tie, somebody is going to win, though, and the Raiders have more firepower. The Broncos have broken 20 points only twice this season.

Prediction: Raiders 21, Broncos 17

Bengals (5-4) at Steelers (3-6)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Bengals by 4 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Bengals are rested after a week off, and they can score in bunches. The Steelers haven't proved that. Pittsburgh is showing signs of life, but Cincinnati evens the score in the season series.

Prediction: Bengals 28, Steelers 23

Cowboys (6-3) at Vikings (8-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Cowboys by 1 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Cowboys have a ferocious pass rush and create havoc. Kirk Cousins is ready for that, though, and the combination of Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson is a lot to handle. Plus, Minnesota's at home.

Prediction: Vikings 27, Cowboys 24

Chiefs (7-2) at Chargers (5-4)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 5 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

The Chargers tend to play the Chiefs tough, so should be interesting for a while. But the Chargers are broken down, just losing two more interior stoppers on their defensive line. Kansas City pulls away.

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Chargers 21

49ers (5-4) at Cardinals (4-6)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 8 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Colt McCoy running a depleted Cardinals offense? Go with the 49ers, who are continuing to gain traction in the NFC West and have lots of ways to move the ball. Neutral site and altitude are factors.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Cardinals 21

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