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TechRadar
TechRadar
Graham Barlow

Sam Altman says AI is progressing faster than Moore’s law as he predicts AGI is ‘coming into view’, and it's leaving me worried about the future

Sam Alman.

Moore’s law, named after Gordon E. Moore, the co-founder of Intel, states that the number of components on a single chip doubles every two years at minimal cost. It’s not exactly hard science, but his simple observation of how rapidly chip technology was progressing back in 1965, has proved to be pretty useful for predicting where technology will be in the years to come.

In his latest blog post, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, makers of ChatGPT, just stated that ‘ Moore’s law changed the world at 2x every 18 months; this is unbelievably stronger. ‘ Altman was referring to the massive price drop we've seen for AI usage. For developers, this is measured in token cost, and the token cost to use AI has been falling about 10x every 12 months. Between early 2023 to mid-2024, the price per token for using ChatGPT has dropped about 150x.

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