It’s a day that ends in “Y” so an NFL salary cap expert is anxiously studying the New Orleans Saints’ outlook. But this time they’re making predictions about it. Over The Cap’s Nick Korte writes that these five Saints veterans are entering dangerous territory, and that they’re in jeopardy of losing their roster spots in 2024.
Using a concept termed “contract fate” created by studying how teams treat veteran players after signing contracts, Korte found five outcomes were possible after players put pens to paper — negative “fates” like termination and pay cuts, along with positive “fates” in extensions and pay raises, along with a “fate” that’s fair for both the player and team in which the contract expires as written.
Korte then studied a sample size of more than 2,000 NFL contracts to find how often each “fate” occurred. And 50.7% of players are terminated before their contracts run out, while another 11.6% take pay cuts; a combined 62.3% of contracts ended with a negative outcome for the player. After breaking it down further into position groups, Korte took a look around the league and put together a list of players with “odds of negative contract fate” in 2023.
In other words, Korte suggests, these players might be fighting for their jobs in 2024. Despite having signed multi-year deals with the Saints, they’ll need to play at a high level in 2023 to return the following season. New Orleans is in the red by more than $63 million next year, though they can reach cap compliance again through another round of their usual restructures. Still, departures are possible.
Let’s break down each case and see whether we agree or disagree with Korte’s assessment:
TE Taysom Hill
Odds of negative contract fate: 65.0%
Age in 2024 season: 34
Cash owed in 2024: $10,000,000
Contract length: 4
Seasons completed after 2023: 2
A pay cut feels possible here — the moves the Saints have made at tight end, signing Foster Moreau and extending Juwan Johnson, have ensured Hill can stay in his position-flexible role but they also make it tough to justify a cap hit north of $15.7 million in each of the next two years. He’s restructured his contract several times which means the choices are another restructure (saving $6.6 million but increasing how much dead money the team owes in the future), a separation, or a pay cut.
Hill shouldn’t agree to give money away, but the team may not give him other options. They could trade him (to Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos?) but doing so before June 1, 2024 would even more money. If he plays well and has another productive season like in 2022, when he posted career-high rushing numbers, he’ll be back for 2024 one way or another.
SF Marcus Maye
Odds of negative contract fate: 75.0%
Age in 2024 season: 31
Cash owed in 2024: $7,500,000
Contract length: 3
Seasons completed after 2023: 2
Maye missed six games with injuries last year and he’s probably going to be suspended for three more this season, and he has a history of durability issues. He does bring sideline-to-sideline speed few other defenders can boast in the Saints secondary but he was a poor replacement for Marcus Williams last year, and so far he hasn’t lived up to his contract. It’s very likely that the Saints would release him with a post-June 1 designation (saving $7.5 million) if he’s not willing to accept an outright pay cut, but that’s his decision to make.
SF Tyrann Mathieu
Odds of negative contract fate: 75.0%
Age in 2024 season: 32
Cash owed in 2024: $9,000,000
Contract length: 3
Seasons completed after 2023: 2
It doesn’t feel like Mathieu is going anywhere any time soon even if he is going to be stepping into the last year of his contract in 2024. He was an every-down defender for New Orleans last year and improved as the season wore on and his role became more clearly-defined. He’s taking on more of a leadership role this summer. Now, his $12 million cap hit next year if heavier than the Saints normally prefer, but it’s more realistic to think they would lower it through another restructure (saving $5.8 million) or an outright extension (saving up to $6.2 million) than moving on from him or asking him to take a pay cut. OTC missed the mark here.
LB Demario Davis
Odds of negative contract fate: 78.1%
Age in 2024 season: 35
Cash owed in 2024: $12,000,000
Contract length: 3
Seasons completed after 2023: 2
Davis is tied with Travis Kelce and Cameron Heyward as the oldest players on OTC’s list, so it’s reasonable to wonder how many years he has left in the tank. But he’s still playing at an All-Pro level late into his career, and the Saints shouldn’t feel motivated to move him unless his performance craters out in 2023 (and his performance at training camp suggests that’s unlikely). He just received a pay raise and extension in 2022, so the Saints wouldn’t exactly be negotiating from a position of strength in turning around to ask for a pay cut just two summers later. It’s more likely Davis has to tweak his contract than Mathieu, but odds are he’ll see it through to the end.
RB Alvin Kamara
Odds of negative contract fate: 83.3%
Age in 2024 season: 29
Cash owed in 2024: $11,800,000
Contract length: 5
Seasons completed after 2023: 3
This is the biggest question mark on the list. Kamara’s $18.8 million cap hit is already substantial, and the Saints could play hardball by considering a post-June 1 cut (saving $11.8 million) or a trade, which would save just $1.6 million before June 1 or $11.8 million after that date. Kamara’s 2025 cap hit soars up to $29 million, though, so something has to give before the team reaches that point. He’s expressed his hope for a Cameron Jordan-style lifer deal, and maybe he and the team can get something done. But this does feel like the most realistic scenario where something drastic might happen if both sides can’t reach a compromise. You hope the Saints can do right by Kamara (it’s hard out there for free agent running backs), but at the same time he needs a bounce-back campaign in the worst way.
