The #Saints haven’t converted more than 4 third downs in a game since their Week 8 win against the Raiders.
Buy Saints Tickets— Ross Jackson (@RossJacksonNOLA) November 28, 2022
Over the past few weeks the New Orleans Saints coaching staff has addressed a common thread. “We’ve got to be better on third down,” is a notion that has been commonly expressed by both head coach Dennis Allen and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. Over the course of the last four game, the Saints have not converted more than four third downs in a game. The last time they did came against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 8. Against them the Saints went 7 of 12 for an impressive 58% conversion rate. If you include first downs granted by penalties, the numbers boost to 8 of 13 for 61.5%, tying the NFL’s fourth best rate that week.
Since then, however, New Orleans has struggled on third down:
- Week 9 vs. the Baltimore Ravens: 3/11 (27%)
- Week 10 at the Pittsburgh Steelers: 3/12 (25%)
- Week 11 vs. the Los Angeles Rams: 4/11 (36%)
- Week 12 at the San Francisco 49ers: 4/11 (36%)
Over those four weeks, an additional 3 third down plays resulted in a penalty against the Saints and 1 first down was award by injury. That makes the Saints a combined 15 of 49 on third downs since Week 9. Ranking them No. 25 in third down conversion percentage during that stretch at a 30.6% clip.
The bad news for New Orleans is that these situational woes may continue. With five games remaining, the Saints will face three teams whose defenses rank in the NFL’s top-15 in third down stop percentage. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank No. 9 with the Cleveland Browns directly behind them at No. 10. The Saints’ Week 17 opponent the Philadelphia Eagles clock in at No. 15. As for the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans could catch a break against them as they rank at Nos. 20 and 30 respectively. However, New Orleans converted on 4 first downs in their Week 1 matchup with the Falcons and just 5 when they visited Carolina in Week 3.
So, things could continue to be a struggled Carmichael and his offense as the season goes along. Allen shared his thoughts on how the team’s struggles on third downs during his Monday presser. “You have to put yourself in positive situations,” Allen said. “And then when you’re in those situations you have to execute. And if you’re a step off, then those usually end up in non-conversions as opposed to conversions.”
The tricky part about that is that even when the Saints end up in positive situations, they often do not find the success they would expect. Here are how the Saints’ 49 third downs over the last four games has broken out. We’ll group them by down and distance and explore what New Orleans has done (or has not been doing) that has led to their struggles.
Third and 0-3: 8/14 (57.1%)
Unsurprisingly, this is where the Saints have been at their best on third down. The 57.1% conversion rate over this stretch is better than the NFL’s season-long average of 55.8%. But there are a couple of concerning realizations when these numbers dissected a bit further.
The first is the usage (or lack thereof) of offensive weapon Taysom Hill. Against the Raiders in Week 8, Hill was responsible for two converted first downs. One as a receiver and another as a rusher. The former BYU quarterback has been very successful on third downs this season. Hill carries a 63.6% conversion percentage when involved as a rusher or receiver this season on third downs. Those numbers just to 75% in short-yardage attempts (0-3 yards) throughout the season. To go from that to just one touch in a key situation is a bit surprising. Hill’s single third and short run over the last four weeks resulted in no gain against the Rams.
The second realization comes when you consider the opponent the Saints have had the most success against on third and shorts. 4 of their 8 conversions in this range came in Week 12 (their only success attempts of the game) against the 49ers. While San Francisco has one of the NFL’s best defenses overall, their third and short game leaves much to be desired. Going into their matchup with New Orleans, coordinator DeMeco Ryans and his defense were surrendering an NFL-worst 78% on third downs of 3 or fewer yards to go.
Against the 49ers the Saints were 4/5 (80%) on such attempts. But, against the Ravens, Steelers and Rams New Orleans went just 4/9 (44%). That means that even the area where they have found the most success is aided by poor performance on the other side of the ball. New Orleans has struggled to be defined by their own strengths this season and in turn are often defined by their opponent’s struggles. This is a prime example.
Here are some of the statistical breakdowns for these attempts:
- Andy Dalton: 7/8 for 98 yards, 5 first downs converted as a passer, 1 as a rusher.
- Running back Alvin Kamara has just three carries in this range with a lone successful conversion from 1 yard out.
- His backfield partner Mark Ingram has a rush for a first down
Third and 4-6: 3/11 (27.3%)
These numbers are particularly concerning. As Allen outlined in his Monday presser, getting into manageable situations is half of the battle while execution is the other. New Orleans has found themselves converting just 11 of 25 attempts against manageable distances ranging from 6 yards to go to 1. But their lack of success in converting from 4 to 6 yards out is a major issue.
Often times, this is the target range for teams trying to stay “ahead of the sticks” or in optimal range for a fresh set of downs. Across the NFL throughout the 2022 season, the league average conversion rate is 42%. So for the Saints to sitting at 27.3% in this range is damning. Surprisingly, the passing game is the largest culprit for the team’s recent struggles here.
Dalton has only completed 3 of 8 passes in this range. He’s done so for just 23 passing yards and an interception. He’s also been sacked once for -7 yards. 2 of the completions led to first downs but Dalton has a remarkably low 6.3 NFL passer rating on these dropbacks. That’s the worst of any quarterback across the league in this range since Week 9.
The third first down out of these plays was awarded by penalty, holding on 49ers cornerback Deommodore Lenoir in coverage against rookie wide receiver Chris Olave. Much like Hill, Olave could stand to be a larger focus on third downs for the Saints offense moving forward. Since the Ravens game, he has 6 catches on 11 third down targets which have led to 4 first downs including a receiving touchdown.
Something to watch next week: the Buccaneers have held teams to a 27.3% third down conversion percentage on third and 4-6 to go this season. The Saints will be matching up with a defense that is forcing exactly the same struggles the team has already been suffering. If they continue to be defined by their opponent, this does not bode well for New Orleans.
Third and 7-10: 4/14 (28.6%)
This is where Dalton has been at his best on an individual basis. He has 7 completions on 10 attempts for 106 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns and an interception. He’s also been sacked twice for a combined loss of 17 yards, unfortunately. But his 104.6 passer rating in these situations is the best you will see from him on third downs since Week 9.
The issue is that only 4 first downs have been achieved in this situation. Some of that can be chalked up simply to the fact that defenses know exactly what to expect. Dalton has dropped back on each of these 14 snaps. 10 completions, 2 sacks, and 2 non-plays due to penalty. Outside of that, the Saints have no counter-punch from 7 or more yards out. That’s not unique to New Orleans, however.
Third and 11+: 0/10 (0%)
Welcome to the pits. Now, to be fair, the Saints are one of 10 teams in the NFL that have a 0% conversion rate from this distance on third down. The best in the NFL in this range are the New York Giants who have converted 5/13 in the last four weeks. The takeaway here, though is that New Orleans is tied for the third most snaps from third and 11 or more yards to go with 12. Struggles to win on early downs have been a common theme throughout the season as well and since Week 9, things haven’t taken a turn for the better in that category.
Dalton has done most of the lifting on these snaps. On eight dropbacks he’s completed 4 of 6 passes for just 30 yards and has scrambled twice. There’s no denying that a 5.0 yard per passing attempt average is not ideal for third and 11 or more. This has been a hot-button issue for fans watching games, the team’s lack of attacking nature when it comes to the sticks, but lots of NFL teams will make the choice to get out of the drive without a turnover and send on the punt team.
One of these completions was also a third and goal from the 14-yard line which led to an 8-yard completion from Dalton to wideout Rashid Shaheed. The remaining two snaps were a 5-yard run by Kamara and a 7-yard sack of Hill, the second of back-to-back sacks against the Rams.
Conclusion
The Saints need to get better on third downs. And quickly. One way to go about it would be relying on Hill and Kamara more in third and short situations while leaning on Olave and the passing game a bit more in other manageable downs. But the approach on third and long: screens, throws to flats, draw, etc. is unlikely to change. Unless the Saints decide to throw the kitchen sink out on the field over their last five contests. Getting back to the mentality that served them well against the Rams.
But as aforementioned, the upcoming opponents won’t make things easy. This is where identity and defining yourself as a team comes into play. Things can not be consistently dictated by what the opposing team struggles or is successful against. New Orleans has to find a way to impose its own will, especially in these important, situational areas.
