This isn’t much of a silver lining, but it’s something. Marcus Williams agreeing to leave the New Orleans Saints on a five-year contract with the Baltimore Ravens in free agency could return a compensatory draft pick in 2023, depending on how the team’s other moves shake out.
It isn’t something to bank on too seriously just yet. If the Saints sign a qualifying free agent of their own (someone who has unrestricted status, and whose contract expired without them being released from it) to a similar value, that could negate a possible pick rewarded for letting Williams go.
So, for example, if the Saints sign pending free agent safety Tyrann Mathieu to a contract averaging $14 million per year then they wouldn’t qualify for a compensatory pick next year. But if they sign recently-cut wide receiver Jarvis Landry to a contract at the same average annual value, they would still project to get that extra selection.
Free agency hasn’t even legally kicked off yet, and the Saints have several other players who could return comp picks if they leave. And there are players New Orleans could sign that put any possible comp picks in jeopardy. But which round could fans expect a comp pick for Williams to slot in at?
A fourth rounder feels most likely (the highest compensatory pick allowed is a third rounder), given recent history. The Saints are expected to receive a compensatory fourth round pick in the 2022 NFL draft after losing defensive end Trey Hendrickson last offseason. Hendrickson signed a contract averaging $15 million per year, which is slightly above what Williams is getting.
That’s the bigger part of the equation. But comp picks are also determined by how often those players were getting on the field with their past team. In this case, Hendrickson was a part-time player; he only saw 500-plus snaps once with New Orleans, so that dropped his value quite a bit in the comp pick formula. Compare that to Williams, who has played 900 or more snaps in four of five seasons (dropping to just 880 snaps in 2020). It’s very possible the scales could tip the other way and send New Orleans a third rounder in 2023.
So that’s our best guess: expect a compensatory fourth rounder (which would fall in the 130’s), but hope for a third (in the 100 to 105 range). Maybe they surprise us. Keep in mind that this could all change in a hurry once the Saints start signing other free agents. If they add more qualifying players than they lose, regardless of their contract value, they won’t earn any comp picks at all.
