Check any New Orleans Saints community online and you’ll find fans calling for wholesale changes to the black and gold. There are people upset in the Facebook comments, the Saints subreddit, super forums, message boards, and Twitter groups all around — and more than a few want the Saints to tear it all down and start over, trading whoever they can to get draft picks and, they think, much-needed salary cap relief.
But because the Saints have so many players playing on restructured contracts, most of their roster is already on the NFL minimum salary. That makes offloading them easier because an acquiring team is only on the hook for their remaining base salary (unless they agree to take on other payments during negotiations) but it also minimizes the salary cap savings New Orleans would recoup by moving players.
To illustrate that point, here are the most expensive remaining salaries on the books for 2022:
- K Wil Lutz: $2,077,778
- DT Shy Tuttle: $1,486,833
- QB Andy Dalton: $1,210,000
- RG Cesar Ruiz: $1,077,177
No other player would cost an acquiring team to pay more than $1 million in their base salary the rest of the season. But it’s more complicated than that. The new team would take on the rest of that contract and future payouts for base salary, roster bonuses, workout bonuses, and so on (though the Saints will still have any prorated bonuses counting against their own salary cap as dead money).
So while the Saints could theoretically trade, say, Michael Thomas to a new team (with his new squad paying him only $632,500 for 2022), that team would have to pay his $15.5 million base salary in 2023, and the Saints would still be counting more than $25 million against the cap due to previous restructures and his signing bonus. That could be negotiated down by consolidating various bonuses into salary and asking the new team to pay them instead, but the counterbalance to that kind of maneuver would be less-valuable trade compensation. The Saints would be approaching it from a position of weaker leverage. Over The Cap’s Jason Fitzgerald laid out all of their 2023 options in greater detail, but the point is that the Saints aren’t in a position to kickstart the rebuild with many moves at the 2022 deadline.
All of this has been said to say that a fire sale isn’t coming for New Orleans — at least not a productive one. If the Saints do tear everything down to the foundation to start a rebuild, it won’t do much to improve their salary cap outlook nor their stockpile of draft assets. All it really accomplishes is further eroding their roster.
But maybe it gets to a point where changes are necessary. There could be a point of no return where you wave the white flag and just offload whoever you can for whatever you can get back. That feels unlikely with Mickey Loomis still on top of the orgchart as the NFL’s longest-tenured general manager. He and the Saints told everyone who would listen that this team was ready to compete, and that Allen was stepping into a perfect situation. Changes on the coaching staff feel more realistic than roster turnover. In the end, though, I think the Saints are going to ask for patience from fans and try to spin this all on injuries derailing their season early on. They’ll do what they can to keep their core together another year or two before making any big moves.
But, hey, maybe they get started now. If that’s the case, here are some trade candidates who could be on the move by the Nov. 2 NFL trade deadline:
DE Marcus Davenport
The Saints restructured Davenport’s fifth-year option earlier this year, which means he’s on track to test free agency next March while leaving behind a whopping $7.6 million as dead money. Trading him now would cost the acquiring team a meager $632,500 for the rest of the season, but then they’ve got to consider whether to extend him themselves come the offseason. A Super Bowl contender could try and get Davenport now, and the Saints should take a good offer if they get one — but it all depends on whether they plan to re-sign Davenport or part ways with him.
It’s really difficult to gauge what kind of return New Orleans might hope for here. Davenport’s lengthy injury history and up-and-down play make for few comparisons. A best-case scenario would be something similar to the Frank Clark trade back in 2019, which brought back first- and third-round selections in 2019 plus a 2020 second rounder. That would be a nice haul for New Orleans but what team is going to pay that? The Jadeveon Clowney trade that same year only cost a third rounder and a couple of players, so that may be a better comparison.
K Wil Lutz
It would be wild to see the Saints trade Lutz right now given how unstable their kicking game was without him a year ago, but it makes sense from a cold, detached, efficiency-focused perspective. If all you care about is the finances, Lutz could be moved this year and free up more than $2 million in salary cap space, and the Saints could probably get league-average play from a replacement on the NFL minimum salary. Lutz is entering the final year of his contract in 2023, and trading him now would save the Saints $3.7 million next year, more than almost any other player. Maybe Lutz could be traded to a contender dealing with kicking woes and bring back a fifth- or sixth-round pick.
DT Shy Tuttle
Tuttle isn’t the kind of player you’d want to trade, but he’s someone you may have to move on from to put out fires elsewhere. He’ll be a free agent after the season and any team acquiring him could hope to bring back a compensatory draft pick to negate what was given up to get him. He’s been a good player in New Orleans’ rotation but he may be expendable now that Malcolm Roach has returned from injured reserve. Personally I wouldn’t trade him (I’d rather bet on him being a long-term fix at the position with David Onyemata declining), but you never know. The Saints have made confusing personnel decisions before. Other teams would probably offer a seventh round pick in 2024 for Tuttle.
WR Marquez Callaway
A team acquiring Callaway only has to pay him $546,944 the rest of the season before he qualifies for restricted free agency in 2023, so that’s mightily affordable for a young receiver who has shown some promise. But it’s tricky. The Saints must only consider trading Callaway if they’re confident that Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry will return soon from injuries and finish out the season without a hitch — otherwise, Callaway is too valuable as a backup. Whether Landry will re-sign and whether Thomas will be retained next year matters, too.
If Callaway were to be moved, the Raiders-Falcons Bryan Edwards trade from earlier this offseason makes sense. Las Vegas sent out Edwards and a conditional seventh rounder in exchange for Atlanta’s fifth-round pick. That’s reasonable compensation for a player like Callaway, but again, you have to consider other factors here.
What about the star talent?
You’ll see crazy people on social media saying the Saints should trade Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Cameron Jordan, Marshon Lattimore, and “all of them” who might have value, but it’s not going to go the way they’re thinking. Change for its own sake isn’t necessarily a good thing, and the Saints have written themselves into a corner where it’s actively detrimental to start a fire sale right now.
We’re breaking all of this down not to suggest the Saints should begin fielding trade offers for these players, but to illustrate how bad of an idea that would be and how little they have to gain by doing it. It’s hustling backwards every step of the way. Let’s look at the numbers:
- RB Alvin Kamara: Acquiring team pays $632,500 in 2022, $9.4 million in 2023 with Saints liable for $14.3 million in dead money (saving about $1.7 million). New Orleans might get a first round pick for Kamara, or a bundle of mid-rounders like the Christian McCaffrey trade
- WR Michael Thomas: Acquiring team pays $632,500 in 2022, $15.5 million in 2023 with Saints liable for $25.4 million in dead money (saving about $2.8 million). Given his injuries, contract status, and rocky relationship with the team, Saints may at best get a second round pick for him
- DE Cameron Jordan: Acquiring team pays $684,444 in 2022, $13.9 million in 2023 with Saints liable for $23.4 million in dead money (saving about $2.2 million). Given his age and contract status, Jordan would probably return a fifth rounder just like Calais Campbell did a few years ago
- CB Marshon Lattimore: Acquiring team pays $632,500 in 2022, $14.5 million in 2023 with Saints liable for $28.5 million in dead money (costing an additional $6 million). Trading Lattimore right now isn’t an option given the costs involved, but it’s something to watch next summer. It’s possible another team makes it worth their while by offering multiple first round picks like with Jalen Ramsey back in 2019, but that’s unlikely
- C Erik McCoy: Acquiring team pays $617,222 in 2022, $1.08 million in 2023 (not including a $10 million roster bonus due later in the offseason) with Saints liable for $6.4 million in dead money (saving them $6.2 million against the cap). McCoy won’t be traded after signing a long-term extension recently, but other teams would probably offer a second rounder — which is less than he’s worth to New Orleans
There are some other pieces other teams could call about, and frankly the Saints may feel more obligated to move on from them.
- DE Carl Granderson: Acquiring team pays $589,722 in 2022, $3.7 million in 2023 with Saints liable for $160,000 in dead money (saving $3.9 million against the cap). Granderson could probably return a sixth round pick, as was the case for Markus Golden when he was traded in 2020
- LG Andrus Peat: Acquiring team pays $684,444 in 2022, $11.8 million in 2023 (with Saints liable for $16.9 million in dead money, saving $1.3 million). Maybe a team offers a fourth or fifth rounder for Peat like the Patriots got for Shaq Mason earlier this year, but New Orleans likely just needs to ride this out
- S Tyrann Mathieu: Acquiring team pays $916,667 in 2022, $7 million in 2023 with Saints liable for $7.6 million in dead money (saving $1.3 million against the cap). Injuries and negative game scripts have made Mathieu a bad fit in their defense, and he might be better off with a contender. Maybe you can find a team that would trade him for third- and fifth-round picks like Darius Slay was moved, but I doubt it given how long Mathieu hung around in free agency
And, hey, let's talk about Taysom Hill
So this really hinges on Sean Payton, because he half-jokingly said he’d be happy to take Hill’s contract with him wherever he ends up coaching next year. It would be really odd to see the Saints trade Hill right now (even though an acquiring team is only on the hook for $672,222 in 2022) because it would leave behind $13.8 million in dead money for New Orleans to deal with next year. The Saints would only save $50,000 by trading Hill before June 1, 2023.
So let’s say Payton goes somewhere like the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Saints are open to sending Hill with him after that date — in which case New Orleans saves $9.9 million against the cap while paying out just over $4 million in dead money. Who knows what Hill is worth to Payton (no way he pays up a first rounder after whatever his new team paid to get him, right?) but we can’t write this off altogether.
Conclusion
So you can see how limited the Saints’ options are after running through the list. They’ve got a number of high-priced players rostered for next season, and making many moves now would be premature. It’ll be smarter to wait the year out and attack things in the spring with a clean slate and a fresh perspective — maybe with new leadership in place — and when they have more options at their disposal like designating post-June 1 cuts and a better sense of the free agency landscape.
And after they traded C.J. Gardner-Johnson at a loss to open the season, it’s probably best the current team leadership sit out the deadline rather than move too quickly and hurt themselves further.
