Sometimes the timing of things just seems like more than a coincidence. For instance, I saw this tweet the other day and it drew a bit of a side eye.
Red-zone success can make or break a season@JwPalms breaks down how Derek Carr can help improve the #Saints in that area
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) June 23, 2023
Wait, Derek Carr will *improve* a team’s red zone efficiency? Color me skeptical.
For those unfamiliar, Carr has always had issues in the red zone. It’s one of those things he’s known for round these parts, like fumbling while diving for the pylon.
But OK, so if this guy thinks Carr is the answer to the Saints’ red zone woes, the Saints must be worse off than the Raiders in that area.
Not so much.
Here’s where that more-than-coincidental seeming timing comes into play. Just 21 hours later, this was posted, giving us all the red zone percentages of all 32 NFL teams.
play success rate inside the red zone:
56% – DAL
55%
54% – NYG
53%
52%
51%
50%
49%
48% – TEN
47% – ATL, KC
46%
45% – MIA, DET, MIN, CAR, DEN
44% – CIN, LAC
43% – PHI, BUF, SF, JAX, PIT, LAR
42% – CHI, ARI, GB
41% – NO, TB
40% – LV
39% – CLE
38% – WAS, NYJ
37% – IND
36% – BAL
35%…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 24, 2023
As you can see, the Saints were actually better in the red zone last season (41%) without Derek Carr than the Raiders were (40%) with Carr.
Mind you, that was with the trio of Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill lining up behind center in New Orleans.
Equally interesting is the position of Josh McDaniels’s old team in these rankings.
By far the worst team in the NFL in red zone efficiency was the Patriots at 31%. Clearly the Patriots are not better off without McDaniels running the offense. I mean, if you’re thinking it was the offensive scheme in Las Vegas that was holding Carr back.
But who knows? Maybe the Saints can catch lightning in a bottle and Dennis Allen can get the kind of red zone abilities no other Raiders coach — including himself — could consistently get from Carr.
