Sadiq Khan’s flagship policy to tackle London’s toxic air is at stake in a High Court showdown over the expansion of the ultra low emission zone.
Five Tory councils claim the Mayor acted unlawfully in the way he has proposed to widen the zone to the Greater London boundary on August 29.
They hope the July 4 hearing — which they have dubbed “independence day” for outer London — will result in a humiliating defeat for Mr Khan and imperil his chances of winning a record third term. Aides say Mr Khan remains “confident” of victory.
But allies and adversaries agree that any delay will increase the likelihood that next May’s mayoral elections will become a referendum on the Ulez.
Opponents are also hoping the row will become the key issue at the by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip on July 20, which was triggered by Boris Johnson’s resignation.
Transport for London is “disaster planning” four possible outcomes from the legal battle, the Standard has learned.
These range from the court giving the green light for the expansion, ordering minor or major changes, or requiring the entire consultation to be restarted, which could take months.
Gareth Bacon, Tory MP for Orpington and a leading Ulez critic, said a court defeat would have huge political significance, leaving Mr Khan an “achievement-free mayor”.
He accused Mr Khan of “tyranny” and said: “The mayor has been told repeatedly that the people of outer London don’t want this. He has ignored them.”
Nick Bowes, a former senior aide to Mr Khan, said defeat would “undoubtedly be a blow” – and would also leave a £200m-a-year hole in TfL’s finances.
“Should the courts block him, the Mayor could still chose to press on with Ulez expansion, but consultations and processes would need re-running,” Mr Bowes, now managing director of London Communications Agency, said.
“Even if it were possible to do all of this in a couple of months, it’d bring the go-live date awfully close to next May’s election.
“This is something I suspect he and his team will want to avoid, increasing the chances of it getting kicked beyond next May. But by doing so, the risk is that a commitment around expansion becomes a major dividing line at the next election.”
Mr Khan insists the Ulez expansion is driven by his wish to cut the 4,000 premature deaths a year in London that are linked to air pollution.
But opponents focus on the cost-of-living crisis. Thousands of motorists a day will be liable for £12.50 levy — many without the ability to upgrade their car or van or to switch to public transport.
Rosamund Adoo-Kissi-Debrah, whose daughter Ella was the first person to have air pollution listed as a cause of death on her death certificate, said the Ulez decision was about far more than the mayor’s political legacy.
She said the expansion would be “a massive step forward in limiting public exposure to tailpipe emissions and all the health risks that come from them”.
She said: “I don’t know when the cost of living is going to be over. Does that mean we continue to breathe dirty air in the meantime? This isn’t so much about Sadiq. It’s about public health in London. It must go ahead.”
Professor Frank Kelly, a world authority on air pollution at Imperial College London, said air quality in outer London breached World Health Organisation guidelines.
“This means that the health of everyone living and working in outer London is affected every day,” he said. “Of most concern to me is the impact that traffic fumes have on the growth and health of children’s lungs.
“Given that lung growth stops at around 18, by failing to improve air quality in London, children living here will carry this lung deficit, and the negative consequences thereof, with them throughout life.”
It was on November 25 last year that Mr Khan decided to press ahead with the expansion, despite it having been rejected in a TfL consultation.
Nor was it mentioned in his 2021 mayoral manifesto, which simply proposed to expand the original central London scheme up to the North and South Circular roads.
Of the 57,937 consultation responses, 59 per cent were opposed and 41 per cent in favour – including eight per cent who backed the expansion, but at a later date.
Mr Khan said the consultation had been “hijacked” by pro-car campaigners, many from outside London.
On April 12, the High Court approved a request from the four Tory boroughs — Harrow, Hillingdon, Bexley and Bromley— and Surrey County Council for a judicial review of the expansion plans. On May 25, the legal grounds were widened.
Mr Khan is accused of acting beyond his powers by varying the current Ulez regulations (rather than creating a new legal entity) to expand the scheme, and of “acting irrationally” in how he set up the £110 million scrappage scheme by failing to consider motorists living on the outskirts of London.
The additional claims allege the consultation was “unlawful and unfair” and “confusing” because of a failure to give sufficient CCTV number-plate data about Ulez compliance rates, and raised more issues with the scrappage scheme.
The hearing is expected to last two days. TfL says it will “robustly defend” the mayor’s case.
Paul Osborn, the Tory leader of Harrow council, believes the councils have “a realistic chance of winning”. He said: “That is the best we could ever hope for.”
Asked what the political implications of defeat would be, Mr Osborn said: “I think it would be a devastating blow to the mayor. I think he has staked a lot on this.
“I think the Mayor is going to lose outer London regardless of the court case. It’s broken the bond with outer London. I have never known anything like this where people are overwhelmingly against something but it’s still being pushed through.”
But TfL has a decent record of defending its consultation schemes at the High Court. Lord Hendy, the former TfL commissioner, told LBC: “I suspect they will succeed simply because it’s a good organisation and they have done it before.”
By chance, July 4 is also the day that voting opens for Conservative members in London to choose their mayoral candidate.
All three shortlisted contenders – Susan Hall,Dan Korski and Moz Hussain – have vowed to scrap the expansion immediately upon taking office.
The Ulez expansion that has been raised at Prime Minister’s Questions. Last week Rishi Sunak accused Mr Khan of imposing it “against the overwhelming views of residents and businesses”.
On June 26, MPs will debate a petition, signed by more than 26,000 people, that calls on the Government to remove the mayor’s power to impose road charges.
According to TfL, the expansion will result in the number of “non-compliant” cars being driven in outer London falling from 160,000 to 46,000 a day, while the number of “non-compliant” vans will reduce from 42,000 to 26,000.
But the total number of motorists who will be affected by the expansion is hotly disputed. Mr Khan says that nine in 10 drivers will be exempt.
A new analysis of DVLA figures by TfL last month revealed that 16 per cent of cars registered to an address in outer London last year would be liable to pay – as would almost 50 per cent of vans.
Anti-Ulez protesters have targeted the 2,750 enforcement cameras being erected in outer London. Almost 100 incidents that been reported, in which more than 200 cameras have been vandalised or stolen. The attacks are described as “gardening” on Facebook groups.
About £85m remains in the scrappage scheme. About 7,000 applications – the majority from small businesses – have been approved, but funds are expected to last until November.
Eligibility will widen at the end of July, when 875,000 London families receiving child benefit can apply for grants of up to £2,000 to upgrade their car. However only a minority of motorists wanting to replace their vehicle will receive help.
Mr Khan sees the Ulez as a “matter of social and racial justice” – saying those who suffer the worst effects of toxic air are the least well-off Londoners.
He pledged to stick to his plan even if Labour fails to win the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, where the Conservatives hope an anti-Ulez campaign will allow them to retain Boris Johnson’s seat.
Asked by the Standard whether he will re-consider the expansion were Labour lose the seat, Mr Khan said: “No, I’m quite clear that we want to expand the Ulez towards the end of August.
“We want those in outer London, including in Uxbridge and Ruislip, to see the same benefits and clean air that we’ve seen in central and inner London.
“Although Ulez wasn’t an easy decision for me to make, it’s the right thing to do, because it’s important that we tackle air pollution and the climate emergency rather than kicking the can down the road.”
Two different questions about #ULEZ in @RedfieldWilton #London poll. Two contrasting sets of responses. @GwynTopham @lse_london @TfL @BBCTomEdwards @RossLydall @simonharrisitv pic.twitter.com/6kDqRiTtWi
— Dave Hill (@DaveHill) June 17, 2023
Will he be saved on polling day by the “silent majority” he believes favour action on air pollution?
A poll of 1,100 Londoners by Redfield and Wilton and the OnLondon website, published at the weekend, found 47 per cent support for the Greater London Ulez and 32 per cent opposed.
In his book Breathe, Mr Khan argued that policies such as the Ulez were no longer “political kryptonite”. He wrote: “The case for tough action on the environment is one that concerned citizens, activists and politicians can win.”
In a fortnight at the High Court, and in the mayoral elections next May, London will discover if he is right.
