March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH24) are trending up +0.02% this morning as investors geared up for crucial U.S. PPI data and earnings from big U.S. banks.
In Thursday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed, with the blue-chip Dow notching a record high and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 posting a 1-1/2 week high. Salesforce Inc (CRM) gained over +2% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after Baird upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $300. Also, Netflix (NFLX) rose more than +2% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Citic Securities initiated coverage of the stock with an Add recommendation and a price target of $485. On the bearish side, Warner Bros Discovery Inc (WBD) slid over -3% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after Redburn Atlantic downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy. In addition, Tesla Inc (TSLA) fell over -2% following a Bloomberg report indicating that the electric vehicle giant had informed employees at its California car plant about wage hikes across its U.S. factories.
The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed consumer prices rose +0.3% m/m in December, compared to an expected rise of +0.2% m/m and higher than the +0.1% m/m reading in November. On an annual basis, headline inflation rose +3.4% in December, accelerating from November’s +3.1% reading. Economists had expected a growth of +3.2% y/y. Also, U.S. core CPI eased to +3.9% y/y in December from +4.0% y/y in November, the smallest increase in 2-1/2 years but higher than the +3.8% y/y estimate. In addition, the number of Americans filing for jobless claims the past week unexpectedly fell -1K to a 2-1/2 month low of 202K, stronger than expectations of 210K.
“[Thursday’s] numbers showed inflation is stronger than expected, and the labor market still appears to be solid. If nothing else, this type of data won’t nudge the Fed to move any faster on rate cuts,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester on Thursday pushed back against the prospect of a rate cut in March and stated that the inflation figures indicated policymakers still had more work to do. “I think the December CPI report just shows there is more work to do, and that work is going to take restrictive monetary policy,” Mester said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month and a 68.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March meeting.
In other news, oil prices climbed over +4% after the U.S. and its allies launched collective military strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen in response to their attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
On the earnings front, big banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C), along with leading U.S. carrier Delta Air Lines (DAL) and health insurance giant UnitedHealth (UNH), are slated to release their quarterly results today.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the December PPI will stand at +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, compared to the previous values of 0.0% m/m and +0.9% y/y.
U.S. Core PPI reading will also be closely watched today. Economists expect December figures to be +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of 0.0% m/m and +2.0% y/y.
In addition, investors will be looking toward a speech from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.
In the bond markets, United States 10-year rates are at 3.989%, up +0.25%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.96% this morning as investors digested U.K. growth data and expressed optimism about the potential for interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank. Gains in real estate and energy stocks are leading the overall market higher. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday that Britain’s economy experienced slightly stronger growth than anticipated in November. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde said Thursday that the “hardest and worst bit” concerning inflation was likely behind, and she conveyed that interest rates would be reduced if the ECB had the certainty that inflation had fallen to the 2% level. Investors have priced in at least five rate cuts in 2024, with traders estimating approximately a 30% likelihood of the initial move occurring in March. In corporate news, Airbus Se (AIR.FP) gained over +2% after the planemaker reported record annual jet orders and affirmed an 11% growth in 2023 deliveries.
U.K.’s GDP, U.K.’s Industrial Production, U.K.’s Manufacturing Production, U.K.’s Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change, France’s CPI, and Spain’s CPI data were released today.
U.K. November GDP has been reported at +0.3% m/m and +0.2% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.2% m/m and +0.2% y/y.
U.K. November Industrial Production stood at +0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.3% m/m and +0.7% y/y.
U.K. November Manufacturing Production came in at +0.4% m/m and +1.3% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.3% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
U.K. November Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change was at -0.2%, weaker than expectations of -0.1%.
The French December CPI arrived at +0.1% m/m and +3.7% y/y, in line with expectations.
The Spanish December CPI stood at 0.0% m/m and +3.1% y/y, in line with expectations.
Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.16% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.50%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower today as investors digested mixed economic data, with attention turning to the upcoming policy rate decision early next week. Utilities stocks gained ground on Friday, while artificial intelligence stocks underperformed. Tech giants and mainland developers listed in Hong Kong also retreated. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday that China’s consumer prices fell for a third consecutive month in December, albeit at a moderated rate, while factory-gate prices extended their prolonged slide, underscoring the enduring presence of deflationary pressures in an economy grappling to achieve a robust recovery. Separately, customs data on Friday revealed that China’s exports increased for the second consecutive month in December compared to the same period the previous year. However, annual exports in the world’s second-largest economy experienced the first decline in seven years, attributed to a slowdown in demand. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China is anticipated to lower the rate on its one-year policy loans, known as the medium-term lending facility, by 10 basis points to 2.4% on Monday, as indicated by the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 15 economists. The PBOC is also expected to inject a net of 121 billion yuan ($16.9 billion) through the MLF to enhance liquidity and meet the demand for funding.
“Consumption will likely pick up into the Lunar New Year, but more stimulus is needed to boost household spending and eliminate deflationary pressure,” UBS analysts said in a note.
The Chinese December CPI has been reported at +0.1% m/m and -0.3% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.2% m/m and -0.4% y/y.
The Chinese December PPI was at -2.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of -2.6% y/y.
The Chinese December Trade Balance stood at $75.34B, stronger than expectations of $74.75B.
The Chinese December Exports arrived at +2.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.7% y/y.
The Chinese December Imports came in at +0.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% y/y.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, reaching a 34-year high and recording its best week since March 2022, propelled by the anticipation of the Bank of Japan sustaining its ultra-loose monetary policy and the yen’s weakness. Energy and industrial stocks led the gains on Friday. Ministry of Finance data showed on Friday that Japan recorded its largest current account surplus for the second straight month in November. Also, finance ministry data on Friday revealed that in the week ended January 6th, foreign investors purchased a net 296.2 billion yen ($2.04 billion) worth of Japanese equities, marking a shift from two consecutive weeks of being net sellers. In corporate news, Fast Retailing Co Ltd climbed over +6% after the parent company of global apparel brand Uniqlo reported a 25% increase in its operating profit for the first quarter, driven by robust overseas sales. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +6.26% to 22.40.
“Foreign investors think the Japanese market is relatively better than other markets: it is not as extended as U.S. markets, and the economy is better than Europe or China,” said Shinji Abe, an equity strategist at Daiwa Securities.
The Japanese November Current Account n.s.a. stood at 1.926T yen, weaker than expectations of 2.385T yen.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Tesla Inc (TSLA) fell more than -2% in pre-market trading following the company's decision to reduce the prices of both the Model 3 and Model Y in China. The automaker lowered the starting price of the Model 3 sedan by -5.9% to 245,900 yuan, while the starting price of the Model Y sport utility vehicle decreased by -2.8% to 258,900 yuan.
Future Fintech Group Inc (FTFT) plunged over -4% in pre-market trading after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission charged the company's CEO, alleging manipulative trading in FTFT stock and a failure to disclose his beneficial ownership and transactions in the stock.
Twilio Inc (TWLO) rose more than +2% in pre-market trading after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $82.
Snowflake Inc (SNOW) dropped over -1% in pre-market trading after Barclays downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $198.
ZoomInfo Technologies Inc (ZI) slid more than -3% in pre-market trading after Barclays downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $18.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - January 12th
UnitedHealth (UNH), JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo&Co (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), Bank of NY Mellon (BK), Delta Air Lines (DAL).
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