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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Defence spending in UK to be put ‘on war footing’, Rishi Sunak says – as it happened

United Nations Council of Europe United Kingdom ​​Rishi Sunak Refugee Rwanda Europe Jeremy Hunt
Rishi Sunak addresses a press conference in Warsaw.
Rishi Sunak addresses a press conference in Warsaw. Photograph: WPA/Getty Images

Afternoon summary

In a world where the US and China spend more on defence than the next 38 highest spending countries combined, defence, for most countries, cannot simply be a funding race.

Metrics are useful but more important is what that spending goes towards. We need more modern capabilities, not simply more money. What that money is spent on can mean the difference between fighting the last war or winning the next one.

Ben Wallace suggests Sunak has abandoned tax cut plan for Tory manifesto to make defence spending pledge instead

Ben Wallace, the former Conservative defence secretary, told Radio 4’s PM programme that he thinks Rishi Sunak will fund the MoD increase announced today by sacrificing a potential tax cut plan that might have been included in the Tory manifesto.

Wallace said he did not know the full details. But he told the programme that he spoke to Sunak this morning, and that Sunak told him he could fund this plan by abandoning “other commitments” that might have been in the manifesto. Wallace said:

Rishi doesn’t say anything on things like money without really going to the nth degree – more than I would.

I spoke to him this morning and he said, “Look, we decided we’re going to spend it on this. We had some other commitments we thought we may or may not do at the election, that we would introduce in the manifesto, and we’ve decided that this is going to be our priority.

So they have clearly, within No 10 and the Treasury, identified some extra spending. This is only speculation – some of that could be not doing a tax cut that might have happened, some of that could be not spending more in another sector of government.

But he’s clearly identified that. He was keen to talk to me.

If Sunak has abandoned plans for a tax cut in favour of plans to increase defence spending, he will be doing what Conservative party members want, according to a recent survey. (See 2.38pm.)

On the PM programme the presenter, Evan Davis, did point out that when Boris Johnson was prime minister, he also announced a long-term plan to raise defence spending to 2.5%. He aised the question as to whether, in the light of that, today’s announcement was very significant.

Davis was too polite to provide the obvious answer (which is that no promise from Johnson could ever be taken seriously), but Wallace did allude to it, saying Johnson and Sunak have very different approaches to making financial commitments.

My colleague Dan Sabbagh says the PM’s commitment to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP includes, not just the core MoD budget, but items like military support for Ukraine. Dan says this means the uplift is not quite as hefty as it sounds.

Check out the small print on Sunak’s defence pledge - includes money spent on Ukraine, Middle East/Yemen, parts of the intelligence budget too

So this takes defence spending on govt math to 2.32% of GDP - meaning that lifting to 2.5% by 2030 is not so dramatic

The SNP says the government could improve defence spending by abandoning the nuclear deterrent. Responding to the PM’s statement, Martin Docherty-Hughes, the SNP’s defence spokesperson, said:

The hollowing out of the armed forces won’t be reversed with a desperate smoke screen that will continue to see billions wasted on weapons of mass destruction, all while our infantry numbers sit at their lowest level in centuries.

Our dwindled armed forces, currently being left to put up with deteriorating living conditions and materiel supplies, won’t be made stronger while Labour and the Tories remain committed to sending billions into a nuclear blackhole.

And here are more comments on the PM’s defence spending announcement from commentators and journalists.

From Torsten Bell, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation thinktank

This is a lot easier to announce than deliver. This promise is for 2030 when the MOD doesn’t currently have a budget for 2025/26... and announcing it outside of a fiscal event means trade-offs/how it’s funding is completely ignored

Note this (and other) write ups totally ignore the implications. Post-election there are already plans to cut unprotected departments day-to-day spending by 13% and for capital spending to shrink. Totally impossible to deliver those plans & raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP

The degree of fiscal commitments/fictions being built up for after this election is a real problem. @OBR_UK forecasts are already missing big spending to come (e.g on infected blood compensation) and premised on those cuts that can’t be delivered. Now this.

None of this is a comment on the wisdom of spending 2.5% on defence - world events will tell us what is required on that front. But this is a promise we’ve no idea if @RishiSunak or anyone else can/will remotely deliver, with no scrutiny of what it would take to deliver it

Here’s why this matters a lot. How has the welfare state expanded post war without huge increases in tax? By shrinking defence spending from 7% of GDP in 1948 to 2% in 2024 (meanwhile health spend has risen from 2% of GDP to 8%).

From Ben Chu, econonomics editor at Newsnight

Some context for the Rishi Sunak pledge today to raise UK raising defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030 (up from current levels of around 2%)

In post-war historical terms that would represent only a relatively minor increase...

...Yet in today’s money an extra 0.5% of GDP works out as around £14bn (nominal GDP in 2024-25 is estimated by @OBR_UK at £2,785bn)...

...So finding that amount of extra cash for defence on the UK’s current lacklustre growth trajectory (without raising taxes or borrowing more) will obviously be challenging...

..And bear in mind the Government has only put in place individual departmental spending budgets up until 2024-25. Though it’s pencilled in *aggregate* departmental spending limits beyond then, based on 1%/year growth in day-to-day spending...

From the Guardian’s Gaby Hinsliff

Writing cheques that a Lab govt is going to have to cash, again (ie I think that defence spending is going to be necessary unfortunately; but don’t buy that it can be financed via spending cuts)

Sunak's plan to increase defence spending implies deep cuts in some other public services, Institute for Fiscal Studies says

The Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank says it is hard to see Rishi Sunak could raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030 without some other departments facing deep cuts, given the Tories’ unwillingness to raise taxes. These are from Ben Zaranko, an IFS economist.

This is a big spending commitment (an extra 0.5% of GDP will be approx £17bn by 2030).

Notably, there’s no sign that overall spending plans have been topped up. So it’s implicitly coming from other areas.

Unprotected public services now face cuts of around 4% p.a. after 2025.

The precise number you get here depends on the precise assumptions you make (we have to make assumptions in the absence of any detail from government). But cuts of between 3% and 5% a year for unprotected budgets are on the cards. Compares to cuts of around 6% a year 2010-15

Ultimately, if we as a country need to permanently spend more on defence because the world has changed for the worse, we need to either 1) raise taxes or 2) consume less of something else (i.e. fewer public services).

Government is implicitly choosing 2) but won’t spell it out.

Also, the government has long had an “ambition” to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP - it’s not obvious to me what’s new. Labour have the same ambition.

The post-election Spending Review will be where this ambition meets fiscal reality

Here are two defence specialists on the PM’s announcement.

From Mark Urban, Newsnight’s diplomatic editor

The UK is to boost its defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030. That’s very important:

- funding crisis on new kit goes away (for now…)

- vital reinvestment in ammo stocks - answer criticisms from former minister @JSHeappey + Tory back benchers

- challenge to Labour to match commitment

So we shouldn’t underestimate the importance of the moment, though saying it’s putting UK economy on ‘war footing’ is hyperbole (defence consumed 50% of GDP in 1944…)

From Dan Sabbagh, the Guardian’s defence and security editor

Sunak says UK’s defence industry should be “on a war footing” - two years after Ukraine war started. Europe’s slow military industrial response is being felt on the front line, where Russia is today gaining ground

Updated

The Ministry of Defence is presenting Rishi Sunak’s defence spending announcement as a £75bn uplift for the MoD budget. This is from Grant Shapps, the defence secretary.

JUST ANNOUNCED: Defence Spending will rise by £75bn over the next 6 years.

With the world becoming more dangerous we can’t afford not to act. That’s why we’ll invest unprecedented amounts to give our Armed Forces a game-changing advantage.

🧵Find out what this £75bn will do

MSPs express concern at Scottish government's reluctance to fully endorse findings of Cass review

The past few weeks have been “shocking, upsetting and destabilising” for trans and non-binary young people in Scotland, Holyrood’s public health minister Jenni Minto told MSPs, as she took on opposition claims that her government has diluted its response to the Cass review in order to protect their governing partnership with the Greens.

Minto gave a statement to the Holyrood chamber this afternoon which succeeded in satisfying practically nobody.

The Greens – who will soon vote on whether to continue the Bute House Agreement with the SNP after members were aghast at last week’s ditching of climate targets – said that young people’s rights had been treated “like a political football” while Labour said the statement “lacked substance” and was “a sop to the Greens”.

Minto didn’t tell MSPs much they didn’t know already: the recommendations of the Cass review will be carefully considered by a multi-disciplinary team of clinicians, who will report back before summer recess; the Scottish government is already working with NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, where the current Sandyford gender service is based, on a nationally commissioned youth gender service; they are funding research at Glasgow University into the long term outcomes of gender healthcare.

But a number of MSPs cross-party expressed frustration that Minto could not simply accept the Cass recommendations. She countered that the review applied to NHS England and there were parts that could not simply read across – and she refused to engage with questions about Green co-leader Patrick Harvie, who has suggested the review is “not a valid scientific document”.

And these are from Kevan Jones, the Labour MP and former defence minister, showing what has happened to defence spending since the Conservatives have been in power.

The Prime Minister’s pledge on defence spending is just more Tory spin.

The last time the UK spent 2.5% of GDP on defence was in 2010, under a Labour Government.

After 14 years of the Tories, the defence budget is now 7% smaller than it was in 2010.

Labour says Tories cannot be trusted to increase defence spending given their record

John Healey, the shadow defence secretary, has suggested that the Tory proposal to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP is not particularly plausible.

In a response to Rishi Sunak’s announcement Healey said:

As Keir Starmer recently set out, Labour wants to see a fully funded plan to reach 2.5%, but the Tories have shown time and time again that they cannot be trusted on defence and we will examine the detail of their announcement closely.

The British public will judge ministers by what they do not what they say. Since 2010, the Conservatives have wasted more than £15bn mismanaging defence procurement, shrunk the army to its smallest size since Napoleon, missed their recruitment targets every year, and allowed morale to fall to record lows.

Labour will conduct a strategic defence and security review in the first year in government to get to grips with the threats we face, the state of our Armed Forces, and the resources required.

Updated

Theresa May, the former prime minister, is one of Westminister’s least-frequent posters on X, but she has released this response to the announcement about defence spending going up.

This is the right decision — not just for the UK but for the wider NATO alliance.
At a time when our values are under threat, it’s vital we invest in our hard power to prepare for a more dangerous future.

I have beefed up the posts at 2.55pm and 2.58pm with more direct quotes from the speech. You may need to refresh the page to get the updates to appear.

Here is the full text of Rishi Sunak’s opening statement.

Q: Are there any talks in Nato about expanding the sharing of nuclear weapons?

Stoltenberg says there are not plans for this.

And that is the end of the press conference.

Q: There are reports that Germany has been critical of the UK’s record on defence spending. Is that fair?

Sunak says he is seeing the German chancellor tomorrow. The UK and Germany are the biggest defence spenders in Europe, he says.

He praises Olaf Scholz for what he has done to increase German defence spending.

Stoltenberg says the UK has been leading be example in Nato, both on defence spending, and in support for Ukraine.

Q: How do you get other Nato members to spend 2% of GDP on defence?

Stoltenberg says there is a long history of US presidents urging Nato countries to spend more on defence. This has been “a consistent US message”, he says. And he says it has been a British message too.

Ahead of the Nato summit in July, he expects to be able to say two thirds of Nato countries are spending 2% of GDP on defence.

And even those countries not hitting that target are increasing defence spending.

Sunak says the UK is leading by example.

Q: How do you encourage more people to join the army? There is a recruitment problem.

Sunak says there are military bases in his Richmond constituency in Yorkshire. He hears nothing but praise for the UK armed forces.

He says MoD accommodation has not always been of the right standard. But the government is determined to fix that, he says.

In January the MoD had the highest number of applications to join the army for six or seven years, he says.

And he stresses that the government will support veterans too.

Q: Are we in a prewar era? (Donald Tusk has used that phrase to describe the situation Europe is in.)

Sunak says we are in a more dangerous place than we have been since the end of the cold war.

Stoltenberg says having Russia as neighbour is costly, but letting it win in Ukraine would cost Nato countries much more

Q: Is it time to be candid about the situation in Ukraine? Could the war last for the rest of the decade?

Sunak says this is a more dangerous time than any point since the end of the cold war.

An investment in Ukraine is an investment in UK security, he says. If Putin is not stopped, he will just go further.

Stoltenberg says having an aggressive neighbour imposes a cost. And, in Russia, Europe has a very aggressive neighbour.

But it would cost even more to let him win, he says.

The more expensive alternative would be to let Russia win in Ukraine, he says. If that happened, we would be living “in a much more dangerous world”, that that would cost significantly more, he says.

Q: What is your reaction to the deaths of five people in the Channel?

Sunak says this is “incredibly sad”. It just underscores the importance of stopping the boats.

And that is way “as a matter of basic compassion” he wants to stop the boats.

(This was a line he was using earlier today. See 12pm.)

Q: [To Stoltenberg] How assured are you by Sunak’s defence announcement when polls suggest he will lose the election? Have you been talking to Labour?

Sunak says he does not want Stoltenberg to answer that, because it would not be right to draw him into domestic politics.

(This comes across as patronising. Stoltenberg, who was PM of Norway for eight years, is more than capable of deciding what is and is not appropriate for him to say about another country’s domestic politics.)

Instead Sunak uses this a chance to take a pop at Labour, saying at the election it will be a choice between him and someone who campaigned to make Jeremy Corbyn prime minister.

Corbyn “wanted to leave Nato, get rid of our nuclear deterrent and turn the army into the peace corps”, Sunak says, quoting policies that were never advocated by Corbyn when he was Labour leader.

Sunak also says multiple members of the shadow cabinet voted to get rid of Trident.

Q: Do you think the way DWP withdraws all carers allowance from people who breach the earning limit even by a small amount is fair? Several former DWP secretaries have said this is a scandal?

This is a scandal that has been highlighted by the Guardian.

Sunak says people wants a welfare system that is fair.

Trump's election unlikely to stop US being a strong supporter of Nato, Stoltenberg suggests

Q: Are you ready to take Britain to war if Russian troops put one boot in this country?

Sunak says the UK’s contribution to Nato is unequivocal.

He says the crisis in the Middle East should not lead to countries ignoring the threat from Russia in Ukraine.

It is vital to ensure President Putin is not successful, he says.

Q: [To Stoltenberg] Do you look forward to working with Donald Trump again? It was tricky last time?

Stoltenberg says a strong Nato is good for Nato, “but also good for the United States”.

He says, regardless of who wins the US presidential election, he expects the US to remain a staunch and loyal ally.

There are three reasons for this, he says.

First, he says it is in the interests of the US to have the support of more than 30 allies.

Second, he says there is broad support for Nato membership allies in the US.

And, third, the US criticism of Nato has not been criticism of Nato allies; it has been criticism of them for not spending enough on defence. And that is changing, he says.

He says in 2014 only three Nato allies spent more than 2% of GDP on defence. This year two thirds of Nato countries, 20 or perhaps even more, will be reaching that target, he says.

Sunak and Stoltenberg are now taking questions.

Q: Does this mean the peace dividend is over, and that the days of more money being available for schools and hospitals are over?

Sunak says: “I wouldn’t characterise it in exactly that way.”

He claims the government can afford this because his policies have focused on delivering a strong economy.

Here is Pippa Crerar’s story about Sunak’s announcement that he will raise defence spending to 2.5%.

Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato general secretary, says Rishi Sunak’s defence spending announcement confirms the vital role the UK plays in the alliance. “Once again, the UK is leading by example,” he says.

Suank is wrapping up now.

To conclude, we did not choose this moment, but it falls to us to meet it.

In a world of increasing threats, we must show our enemies that we are resolute and determined, that their attempts to destabilise our world or redraw its borders by force will fail, [and that] with our friends and our allies we will be at the forefront of the defence of the free democratic world.

Sunak says his second priority is to prioritise innovation and new technology.

And his third priority is to support Ukraine for the long term.

The costs of failing to support Ukraine now will be far greater than the costs of repelling Putin. Because only if he fails will he and other adversaries be deterred.

And that is why the United Kingdom, whose history of standing up to dictators is so much part of our national consciousness, has come together with our allies to stand with Ukraine from the very start.

Sunak says defence spending in UK will be put on 'war footing'

Sunak says he has three priorities for defence spending.

First, he says defence spending in the UK will be put “on a war footing’.

We will put the UK’s own defence industry on a war footing.

One of the central lessons of the war in Ukraine is that we need deeper stockpiles of munitions, and for industry to be able to replenish them more quickly.

So today, we’re giving £10bn in munitions to give industry long-term funding certainty, backed by long-term contracts, so they can produce more, be readier to surge capacity, and move to ‘always on’ production, when required.

From surface-to-air-missiles made in Bolton, to anti-tank weapons in Belfast, we will replenish our stockpiles, all while supporting British jobs right across the Union.

But it’s not just about investing more – we must invest better.

For too long, too much of our defence procurement has been over-complex, over-budget, and over-time.

So we are making radical reforms to our procurement model to make sure this new investment delivers value for money.

And to encourage private sector investment into defence production … I can also announce today that we’re going to put beyond doubt that defence investment does count towards environmental, social and governance assessments.

There is nothing more ethical than defending our way of life from those who threaten it.

Now all of this will put us at the forefront of the global defence industry, allow us to hugely ramp up defence production, and give our armed forces the capability they need to keep us safe.

Updated

Sunak says he has fully funded plan to raise defence spending, every year, to 2.5% of GDP by 2030

Sunak says 16,000 troops have been deployed in Europe this year. And the RAF and the Royal Navy have new equipment, he says.

But Britain cannot be complacent, he says.

Britain must do more. So today he is announcing “the biggest strengthening of our national defence for a generation”. He goes on:

We will increase defence spending to a new baseline of 2.5% of GDP, by 2030.

That starts today.

And rises steadily in each and every year.

Over the next six years, we’ll invest an additional £75bn in our defence.

And it will be fully funded with no increase in borrowing or debt.

So this is not some vague aspiration for the future.

We have a clear plan for what we’ll spend, when we’ll spend it, and how we pay for it.

A plan that makes the United Kingdom by far the largest defence power in Europe – and second largest in Nato.

Today is a landmark moment in the defence of the United Kingdom.

This is a generational investment in British security and British prosperity.

It makes us safer at home and stronger abroad.

Updated

Sunak holds press conference with Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg

Rishi Sunak is holding a press conference at a military base in Poland with Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary general.

Sunak starts by saying his first duty is national security. And he thanks the servicemen and women he is addressing for what they do.

The world is becoming more dangerous, he says.

Countries like Russia, Iran, North Korea and China are “increasingly assertive”, he says.

The danger they pose is not new. What is new is that these countries and their proxies are causing more instability … in more places at once. And they’re increasingly acting together, making common cause and an attempt to reshape the world order.

Updated

Sunak 'to commit to raising defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030'

Rishi Sunak is going to announce that the government will raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, Deborah Haynes from Sky News reports.

Many Tory MPs have been pushing for higher defence spending and a survey of Conservative party members for the ConservativeHome website earlier this month found that three quarters of them said higher defence spending should take precedence over tax cuts. In the budget and the autumn statement last year, Jeremy Hunt, the chanellor, did the opposite, prioritising tax cuts.

But a spending commitment linked to a target date six years in the future, from a prime minister almost certain to lose an election, may not carry great sway.

After the Conservatives recently sought to open up a dividing line with Labour over defence spending, Keir Starmer said he was committing to raising defence spending to 2.5% of GDP “as soon as resources allow”.

Rishi Sunak has refused to rule out a calling a general election in July.

Asked about the timing of the election by reporters on his flight to Poland, Sunak said:

All I’m going to say is the same thing I say every time. As I said, I think it was in the first week of January, my working assumption is an election in the second half of the year.

Asked if he would commit to a deportation flight to Rwanda taking off before general election, Sunak said:

As I said on flights yesterday, 10-12 weeks, that’s what we’re working towards for all the reasons that I outlined yesterday.

John Glen, the Cabinet Office minister, told MPs that he was working “as quickly as possible” to get a body set up able to pay compensation to the victims of the infected blood scandal.

Speaking in response to a Commons urgent question tabled by Labour’s Diana Johnson, he confirmed that the government has tabled an amendment to the victims and prisoners bill to set up an infected blood compensation authority. He said:

I have also put into legislation, with the consent of both houses, the need to set up that arms-length body and make it operational as soon as possible.

My concern is to get that arms-length body up and running as quickly as possible so there’s a legal obligation to do so when royal assent is gained.

The government says it will wait until the infected blood inquiry produces its final report before deciding full details of its compensation scheme. But Johnson said that government should start paying compensation before the final report is out, as Sir Brian Langstaff, the inquiry chair, recommended last year. She said:

We know that over 3,000 people have already died in the worst treatment disaster in the history of the NHS, another 680 have died since the public inquiry started in 2018 and with two people dying on average every week 100 people have died since Sir Brian made his final recommendations on paying compensation in April 2023.

He said wrongs have been done on an individual, collective and systemic level. He also said in all conscience he could not wait until his final report was published to tell the government to start to pay compensation … The time to act is now.

A reader asks:

While Labour has said it would abandon the Rwanda policy [see 11.17am], is it still going to be stuck with the costs of the treaty? If and when Labour comes to power, will they still have to make payments to Rwanda?

Labour say, on the basis of what was revealed in the recent NAO report into the funding of the Rwanda scheme, it would not be liable for future costs. But it would not be able to recover money already spent.

The chair of the Fabian Society, a Labour thinktank, has apologised after a report found there was a “culture of misogyny and marginalisation” in the Young Fabians, its youth wing, LabourList reports.

Sara Hyde, the Fabian Society’s chair, told LabourList that the thinktank was “deeply sorry that this Young Fabian culture developed”. She said reforms were being implemented.

Labour's Wes Streeting claims Sunak considering calling general election in July

For the first few months of this year Labour politicians spent a lot of time telling anyone who would listen that it was an open secret at Westminster that Rishi Sunak would call the general election in May. Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, even bet money on this live on TV. It was largely nonsense (many political journalists booked holiday for April, assuming the election would be in the autumn), but the ruse allowed Labour to claim that Rishi Sunak had “bottled it” when the May election never materialised.

Now Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, is trying the same trick again. During health questions today

Westminster is awash with rumours that the prime minister is going to call a July general election, presumably to avoid giving his Rwanda gimmick the time to fail.

So I have a very simple question for the minister: will he repeat the pledge the prime minister made last year and promise that NHS waiting lists will be lower at the time of the general election than when the prime minister came to office?

According to the betting company Betfair, some people have been betting on a July election over the past 24 hours. The odds on July have gone from 16/1 to 3/1, implying there is a 25% chance of a July election. But November remains the overwhelming favourite, with the odds of an election that month at 5/4.

Prof Sir John Curtice, the BBC’s lead psephologist, told Times Radio this morning that he thinks the election will be in the autumn. (See 10.41am.)

Replying to Streeting, the health minister Andrew Stephenson said:

The prime minister has been very clear that getting waiting lists down is one of his top priorities, but he has also been clear that performance has been disappointing.

Stephenson said NHS strikes were partly to blame, and he said Labour should condemn them.

Updated

Rishi Sunak staged a St George’s day fightback (see 11.48am) on his flight to Poland, presenting reporters travelling with him with cupcakes to celebrate.

Civil servants must obey ministers if ordered to ignore ECHR injunctions blocking Rwanda flights, Sunak says

The FDA, the union which represents senior civil servants, is threatening the Home Office with legal action over new guidance for civil servants which says that, if a minister decides to ignore an injunction from the European court of human rights (ECHR) saying a deportation flight to Rwanda must not go ahead, officials have to do what the minister says and facilitate the flight – even though ignoring an ECHR injunction is in breach of international law.

Speaking to reporters on his flight to Poland, Rishi Sunak made it clear that he did not agree with the FDA. Officials must obey ministers if they’re ordered to ignore an ECHR injunction, he said.

I’m clearly and firmly of the view that civil servants know that what they’re there to do is support the government, the elected government of the day, and that’s what I’m confident they will do in this instance.

That’s why we specifically changed the civil service code, which is one of the steps that we made a little while ago, to make it crystal clear that when it comes to rule 39 decisions [ECHR injunctions], as you know, the bill gives ministers the discretion to decide what to do about those.

I wouldn’t have put that power in there if I wasn’t prepared to use it, but our changes to the code make it crystal clear that civil servants will be expected to follow ministerial guidance on that point when we get there or if we get there.

In 2022 a flight taking asylum seekers from the UK to Rwanda was cancelled as a result of an ECHR injunction. But Sunak believes there is less chance of that happening again, partly because of reforms to the Rwandan asylum system being implemented under the UK-Rwanda treaty and partly because the ECHR tightened its rules, making injunctions harder to obtain.

Updated

Sunak claims there is 'element of compassion' to Rwanda policy because it is meant to stop dangerous Channel crossings

Rishi Sunak has said that the deaths of five people who were crossing the Channel in the early hours of this morning underlines the need to stop the boats.

Speaking to reporters on his plane to Poland, he argued that there was an “element of compassion” in his Rwanda policy because it is intended to stop people smuggling. He said:

There are reports of sadly yet more tragic deaths in the Channel this morning. I think that is just a reminder of why our plan is so important because there’s a certain element of compassion about everything that we’re doing.

We want to prevent people making these very dangerous crossings. If you look at what’s happening, criminal gangs are exploiting vulnerable people. They are packing more and more people into these unseaworthy dinghies.

We’ve seen an enormous increase in the numbers per boat over the past few years. This is what tragically happens when they push people out to sea and that’s why, for matters of compassion more than anything else, we must actually break this business model and end this unfairness of people coming to our country illegally.

Labour seems to be winning the St George’s day patriotism contest.

It posted this on X first thing this morning, securing an approving tweet from Christopher Hope, political editor of GB News, who takes a keen interest all things patriotic and who pointed at that, at that point in the day, the Tories still weren’t celebrating England’s patron saint.

Keir Starmer later posted a video about what being proud to be English means to him. To a large extent, he equates English values with Labour values.

Tory HQ finally got their social media message out almost two hours after Labour. Their picture did not even feature the St George’s Cross in full.

Rishi Sunak just posted a modest picture on his X feed, not a Starmer-style eulogy to Englishness. It is less uplifting than Starmer’s offering, but at least it might appeal to anyone who feels that overt displays of patriotism are not particularly English anyway.

A reader asks:

Could you do some research, please? Some posters are saying Labour have said they will repeal the Rwanda Bill as soon as they get in. Which is what I thought. But others are saying they haven’t said that. Did they?

Labour has said it would abandon the Rwanda deportation policy. This has been the party’s position for some time, at least since the party conference, where Keir Starmer said it was the wrong policy and he would reverse it. But Labour has not committed to repealing the bill. The party says it does not need to repeal the bill to get rid of the policy. The bill allows the Home Office to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, but it does not require the Home Office to do that, and the party says repeal is unnecessary.

Repealing legislation also takes time. A new Labour government may have other legislative priorities.

Scottish Greens' co-leader Patrick Harvie faces vote of no confidence at Holyrood over his lack of support for Cass report

Patrick Harvie, the co-leader of the Scottish Greens and a minister in the Scottish government, could face a confidence vote in Holyrood, PA Media reports. PA says:

The Alba party announced today its Holyrood leader Ash Regan is submitting a motion of no confidence in the minister, which could force a vote he would almost certainly win.

The motion comes over Harvie’s failure to say if he accepts the findings of the Cass review in an interview on Monday.

Asked five times if he accepts the report, the minister refused to say, instead claiming it has been “politicised and weaponised” against trans people.

The review – published earlier this month – highlighted a lack of evidence for some treatments of transgender young people and decried the “toxic” debate around the issue.

The motion would require support from 25 other members in parliament before it could force a vote, but the joint numbers of the SNP and Greens would probably be enough to save Harvie’s job.

Regan – who defected from the SNP to Alba last year – said: “The motion of no confidence speaks for itself. The Scottish Greens wish to side with ideology over clinical evidence. I am hopeful that MSPs will put good governance first, ahead of party lines, and support the motion.”

Prof Sir John Curtice, the leading elections analyst, told Times Radio this morning that, in the light of what Rishi Sunak said at his press conference yesterday, he does not expect a summer election.

Asked if he expected an election in July, Curtice replied:

No, not at all. To be honest, I think we now need to realise that what probably is going on here. It is in the government’s interest to create uncertainty about the election date, because they will want to get their opponents to spend their money now, more than perhaps when the election is more likely to happen in the autumn …

Given that we’re now being told by the prime minister that the flights [to Rwanda] are not going to even start in July, that’s a pretty heavy clue that the prime minister, at the moment at least, is not thinking that this is going to turn things around sufficiently quickly for him to hold an election in the summer.

Curtice also described flights to Rwanda as “the last substantial card that the government seems to have up its chest that it hasn’t already played in its continuing, but so far, unsuccessful attempt to try to narrow Labour’s opinion poll lead, which as we speak, still stands at, 20 points”.

Rishi Sunak spoke to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, to confirm details of an extra £500m military aid package from Britain, No 10 said. In a read-out of the call, Downing Street said Sunak told Zelenskiy this would “support the highest priority capabilities, including further ammunition, air defence and drones”.

No 10 added:

Ahead of a visit to Poland and Germany, the prime minister reiterated that Ukraine’s security was central to all of Europe’s security. He said the UK would continue to work to galvanise the international community to support Ukraine’s defence.

In his own account of the call Zelenskiy said:

I spoke with @RishiSunak, who informed me that the UK has allocated the largest defence support package for Ukraine to date, worth half a billion pounds.

Storm Shadow and other missiles, hundreds of armored vehicles and watercraft, ammunition—all of this is needed on the battlefield.

I am grateful to the UK and personally to Prime Minister Sunak for such a strong demonstration of support and for the willingness to further develop our defense cooperation, especially with an emphasis on maritime and long-range capabilities.

We discussed the need for an effective model for confiscating frozen Russian assets. We also shared our expectations for the upcoming Peace Summit in Switzerland and European Political Community Summit in the UK.

Pippa Crerar has more on the military aid announcement here.

Three men, a woman and a child were killed attempting to cross the Channel in the early hours of this morning, according to a French coastguard statement.

Enver Solomon, the Refugee Council’s chief executive, said this was “another devastating human tragedy” that should have been avoided. He said:

The only sustainable way to reduce dangerous journeys across the world’s busiest shipping lane is for the government to reduce the need for desperate people to take desperate actions.

Instead of hostile, headline-grabbing legislation, we need to see safe routes for those fleeing conflict and persecution, including more options for family reunion, refugee visas, and cooperation with our European neighbours.

'These tragedies have to stop,' says Cleverly, as five asylum seekers reportedly killed crossing Channel

Five people have reportedly died in an attempt to cross the Channel near the town of Wimereux, south of Calais, Jamie Grierson reports.

In response to the reports, James Cleverly, the home secretary, said:

These tragedies have to stop. I will not accept a status quo which costs so many lives.

This government is doing everything we can to end this trade, stop the boats and ultimately break the business model of the evil people smuggling gangs, so they no longer put lives at risk.

Updated

Jeremy Hunt’s scope for tax cuts hit by higher-than-expected borrowing

Jeremy Hunt’s scope for a substantial pre-election tax giveaway has been hit after the latest set of official figures showed the UK’s public finances in worse shape than thought at last month’s budget, Larry Elliott reports.

'New legislation sets perilous precedent globally,' says UN high commissioner for human rights as Rwanda bill passes

Good morning. Rishi Sunak has finally managed to get parliament to pass his safety of Rwanda (asylum and immigration) bill (it will become an Act gets royal assent, within hours or days), but international concern about the new law is not going away. If anything, it may now escalate. This morning the Council of Europe, the custodian of the European convention on human rights, UNHCR, the UN’s refugee agency, and the UN’s high commissioner for human rights have all issued statements.

Michael O’Flaherty, the Council of Europe’s commissioner for human rights, said the passing of the bill was a threat to the global legal system protecting refugees. In a statment he said:

The Rwanda bill’s adoption is another representation of an ongoing trend towards externalisation of asylum and migration policy in Europe, which is a matter of concern for the global system of protection of the rights of refugees.

Filippo Grandi, the UN’s high commissioner for refugees, raised similar concerns. In a statement he said:

The new legislation marks a further step away from the UK’s long tradition of providing refuge to those in need, in breach of the Refugee Convention.

Protecting refugees requires all countries – not just those neighbouring crisis zones – to uphold their obligations. This arrangement seeks to shift responsibility for refugee protection, undermining international cooperation and setting a worrying global precedent.

And Volker Türk, the UN’s high commissioner for human rights, said in a statement:

By shifting responsibility for refugees, reducing the UK’s courts’ ability to scrutinise removal decisions, restricting access to legal remedies in the UK and limiting the scope of domestic and international human rights protections for a specific group of people, this new legislation seriously hinders the rule of law in the UK and sets a perilous precedent globally.

All three experts urged the UK government not to use the new powers it has given itself.

But the government is not taking any notice. In a statement issued this morning Sunak said:

The passing of this landmark legislation is not just a step forward but a fundamental change in the global equation on migration.

We introduced the Rwanda bill to deter vulnerable migrants from making perilous crossings and break the business model of the criminal gangs who exploit them. The passing of this legislation will allow us to do that and make it very clear that if you come here illegally, you will not be able to stay.

Our focus is to now get flights off the ground, and I am clear that nothing will stand in our way of doing that and saving lives.

Here is the agenda for the day.

10am: Lord Frost, the former Brexit minister, gives evidence to the Commons business and trade committee about trade deals.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

Lunchtime: Keir Starmer and Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, are on a visit in North Yorkshire.

Lunchtime: Rishi Sunak arrives in Warsaw

2.20pm: Sunak holds a press conference with Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary general. Sunak is also meeting Donald Tusk, the Polish PM.

And Sunak is not the only minister travelling today. James Cleverly, the home secretary, is in Italy for talks with his Italian counterpart, Matteo Piantedosi, on illegal immigration. And David Cameron, the foreign secretary, is flying to Uzbekistan for the latest stage of his Central Asian tour.

If you want to contact me, do use the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.

Updated

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