Russian warships are staying away from their port base in Syria, say military experts amid uncertainty over whether Vladimir Putin’s military will be ordered out of the wartorn country.
Russia propped up Bashar Assad’s brutal regime for years, including with air strikes recently on rebel forces as they swept across the country in a lightning uprising.
Moscow is now scrambling to work out whether Syria’s new administration led by Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, will allow Russian forces following the ousting of Assad to remain at the country’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria’s Latakia province and the Mediterranean port of Tartus.
“Russia’s force posture around Syria continues to reflect the Kremlin’s current cautious and indecisive response to the fall of Bashar al Assad’s regime,” said the Institute for The Study of War.
“Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from December 10 shows that Russian ships have still not returned to Syria’s Port of Tartus and that the Russian Mediterranean Sea Flotilla is still in a holding pattern about eight to 15km away from Tartus (five to ten miles).”
Maritime experts say four Russian ships were within this area as of Tuesday, two frigates, the Admiral Golovko Gorshkov and Admiral Grigorovich Grigorovich, the Novorossiysk Improved Kilo-class submarine, and the oil vessel Vyazma Kaliningradneft.
The Baltic Fleet’s Alexander Shabalin Project 775 large landing ship reportedly left the Baltic Sea maritime zone on December 10, potentially to facilitate the removal of some Russian military assets from Tartus to the Mediterranean, the ISW, a Washington-based think tank, added.
It also stressed that Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) was saying that Russian forces have been disassembling equipment and weapons and removing troops from Khmeimim in An-124 and Il-76 military transport aircraft and “dismantling” equipment at Tartus under the supervision of recently-deployed Russian Spetsnaz special forces.
The toppling of the Assad regime is a political blow to Putin and the Kremlin said on Wednesday that ensuring the security of Russia’s military bases and diplomatic missions in Syria is of paramount importance.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was maintaining contacts with those in charge in Syria and that Moscow hoped for a stabilisation of the situation there.
The naval facility at Tartus is Russia’s only Mediterranean repair and replenishment hub.
Syria has in the past been a key staging post for Russian military contractors flying in and out of Africa.
Syria’s new interim prime minister Mohammed al-Bashir said he aimed to bring back millions of Syrian refugees, protect all citizens and provide basic services but acknowledged it would be difficult because the country lacked foreign currency.
He ran the rebel-led Salvation Government in a tiny pocket of northwestern Syria, before the 12-day lightning rebel offensive swept into Damascus, forcing Assad to flee to Russia.
US officials, engaging with rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, urged them not to assume automatic leadership of the country but instead run an inclusive process to form a transitional government.
