The Russo-Ukrainian war began in February 2014, but kicked into high gear on 24 February 2022 when Vladimir Putin launched his “special military operation”. In the four long years since then, the country has been torn apart in a frantic struggle to repel the vastly more powerful invader.
But the tables have begun to turn with the technological advance of drone warfare, which has not only allowed Ukrainian soldiers to attack Russian troops from relative safety, but now allows Ukraine to strike targets deep within the Russian state.
Now, as a direct consequence of Ukraine’s high use of explosive drones, a report from Professor of Global History at the University of Oxford, Peter Frankopan, on Foreign Policy has revealed a shocking statistic. According to their studies, a Russian soldier now has a life expectancy of just 20 to 35 minutes in combat in Ukraine.
30,000 soldiers dying per month
They also report that once a soldier has signed up to fight in Ukraine, his life expectancy from the training ground to death generally ranges from just ten days to three weeks. Now, as per the report, average monthly casualties for Russia are around 30,000 soldiers, with the Center for International Studies estimating that over a million Russians have died in Ukraine since February 2022.
In addition, Ukrainian casualties are far fewer, with Frankopan saying that on average one Ukrainian soldier dies for eight Russian soldiers.
As such, Russian Army recruiters are finding it difficult to attract new recruits. The NY Post reports Russian officials as saying they’ve recruited 420,000 new soldiers for year-long contracts, but official state media admits that’s down 30% on the previous year. Potential recruits are reportedly being offered sign-up bonuses of up to $80,000 or $140,000 in personal debt relief.
There are also reports from a Russian blogger and Ukraine war veteran going by the name of Aleksandr Lunin that Russian commanders are routinely “torturing” their own soldiers, which he thinks will lead to a mutiny.
Fortune reported that Lunin demanded to meet with Putin and said that if things don’t change, “the army will turn its weapons against the Kremlin.”
But Frankopan cautions against predicting the imminent collapse of the Russian state and Putin being removed from power. He concludes, “Beware the drowning man: The coming months will likely be dangerous outside and inside Russia as Putin tries desperately to stay afloat.”
