Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has laid out a grim scenario for a Russian invasion of Ukraine during an interview with ABC News.
Speaking with the organisation’s chief global affairs correspondent, Martha Raddatz, on Sunday, Mr Austin explained that an attack on Kiev was “highly likely” to occur should the Russian military go ahead with an attack on eastern Ukraine.
“Would we see [Russian] tanks rolling in to Kiev?” Ms Raddatz asked the defence chief.
“You could see that. I mean, that’s highly likely. You could see that. You could see a significant amount of combat power move down to take Kiev,” responded Mr Austin.
Pointing to the Ukrainian-Russian border, he noted: “We see a lot of tanks and armoured vehicles there, we see a lot of artillery, we see rocket forces.”
The secretary went on to say that any deployment of such forces offensively in Ukraine, but particularly to take the capital, would result in significant civilian casualties.
“If he employs that kind of combat power, it will certainly create enormous casualties within a civilian population ... this could create a tragedy, quite frankly, in terms of refugee flow and displaced people. So this is potentially very, very dangerous,” said the general.
The stark warning of what a Russian attack could look like comes just two days after the president said in a national address that his administration believes Vladimir Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine, and NBC News cited senior US officials claiming the order to attack had been given.
Russia’s top representatives to the west, despite the claims, have continued to insist otherwise. Moscow’s ambassador to the US appeared on the Sunday news show circuit this week as did Mr Lloyd and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and once again denied that Russia’s military was planning to attack.
“There is no invasion. There is no such plans,” Anatoly Antonov insisted on CBS’s Face the Nation.
“Russian troops are on sovereign Russian territory,” he added. “We don't threaten anyone.”
US officials have disputed claims from Russian officials of military pullbacks from the region and insisted in return that the military presence near Ukraine’s border has actually strengthened, including the recent addition of first-strike forces.
On Sunday, Mr Blinken continued to stress that the US had plans to respond to a potential Russian attack as well as the possibility of Moscow allowing tensions at the Russia-Ukraine border to continue boiling for the forseeable future.
The US has stressed that diplomatic off-ramps still exist for Moscow to avoid war, while refusing to say whether the US would support one of Russia’s key demands: the permanent exclusion of Ukraine from Nato, the anti-Soviet alliance that Moscow continues to recognise as a threat.
Mr Blinken did add on Sunday that the US would refuse to recognise Crimea, a region of Ukraine annexed by Russia in 2014, as part of the Russian Federation. He is set to meet with Russia’s foreign minister in the coming days, but the Biden administration has warned that an attack before that date would slam the door shut on future diplomatic efforts.
