The #EndBadGovernance protest in Nigeria from 1 August to 10 August took a rather unexpected dimension when some protesters in Kano and Kaduna states, both in the country’s north-west region, were seen waving and sharing Russian flags on the streets. In reaction, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu met with the country’s security chiefs and the police made a number of arrests. The Russian embassy in Abuja denied any meddling in Nigeria’s internal affairs. The concern is that Nigeria’s northern region shares a poorly policed 1,497km border with Niger Republic, where a pro-Russia military junta currently holds sway.
The Conversation Africa asked Olayinka Ajala, an international relations expert who has researched the region for over a decade, what this means for Nigeria.
Why were some protesters waving the Russian flag?
One possible explanation is that the protest was infiltrated by some Nigeriens to register their displeasure with the Nigerian government attitude towards the military junta in Niger and also to embarrass the government. The Nigerian President, Bola Tinubu, who also doubles as the chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), imposed sanctions on Niger when the military took over in 2023. This argument about foreign infiltration confirms my previously stated view that the withdrawal of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso from the regional grouping, Ecowas would lead to the exodus of citizens to other countries in the region, threatening their stability.
It is very difficult to police the Nigerian borders, but more should have been done to prevent infiltration, given the long notice provided by the protest organisers.
What risk does Wagner’s presence in Niger pose to Nigeria?
Seven Nigerian states share borders with the Republic of Niger. For decades, people from Niger and northern Nigeria have freely travelled between the two countries for work and family related issues. This also comes with security challenges. Violent non-state actors are able to move freely, as seen with groups such as Boko Haram.
With the expanding relationship between Niger and Russia, the Wagner group – a private military organisation fronting for Russia and involved in fighting terrorism in the Sahel – poses a threat to the entire region, especially Nigeria. There is no effective border between the countries and people can easily move in and out.
The Wagner group, like any other private military organisation, operates with impunity and is not accountable. It has been accused of gross human rights abuses on several occasions. While Russia does not openly back the group, it is common knowledge that it is sponsored by Russia.
In addition, the Wagner group has been identified as a potential threat to security and democracy in Nigeria. This is because of their mode of operation and interests in exploiting natural resources. A recent study has shown that foreign criminals are involved in gold exploration and insecurity in Zamfara, one of the states sharing borders with Niger. The Nigeria security agencies therefore need to keep an eye on the activities of the group in neighbouring Niger.
There is no evidence yet of Wagner operating in Nigeria, but there is a risk it could infiltrate the porous borders and undermine Nigeria’s security.
Read more: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger want to leave Ecowas. A political scientist explains the fallout
Should Nigeria be worried about Russia meddling in its internal security?
Yes, Nigeria should be worried. Waving foreign flags in a country undermines the country’s sovereignty and internal security. Russian flags were waved in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger after the military took over. The protesters waving the flags in Nigeria openly called for a coup and Russian intervention in the country. Nigeria’s chief of defence has labelled this a treasonable offence.
Although the Russian embassy in Nigeria denied any involvement, there is evidence that Russia is keen to expand its influence in the Sahel region. It is important to understand that the security and stability of the Sahelian states has an impact on Nigeria and other coastal countries in west Africa.
During the protest in Kano state, seven Polish citizens were arrested for raising Russian flags. The spokesperson of Nigeria’s State Security Service said the Polish citizens were arrested while participating in the protest. The Polish government argued they were only in the country to study the Hausa language.
This further raises the suspicion of foreign interference in the country, which could destabilise the already fragile security architecture.
The recent attacks in Mali which led to the death of Malian soldiers and Wagner fighters were supported by Ukraine special forces. This is already raising concern of a new proxy war in the region. Ecowas has rightly condemned “outside interference” in the region. This is another reason why Nigeria should be worried about any semblance of foreign influence within its borders.
Read more: Niger and Russia are forming military ties: 3 ways this could upset old allies
How should Nigeria protect itself from Russian influence in its neighbourhood?
Nigeria has a fairly strong relationship with Russia but must act to prevent any form of interference. In 2021, Nigeria signed a military agreement with Russia and currently buys weapons from Russia.
Despite that, the country should be wary of private militia groups, including Wagner. A better relationship with its neighbours, especially those where Wagner is operating, would enable it to monitor the activities of the group.
The government also needs to quickly identify, arrest and prosecute individuals trying to destabilise the country.
Furthermore, the Mali attacks are an indication of increased foreign influence in the west African region. Nigeria should use its position as the chair of Ecowas to strongly condemn such activities.
Olayinka Ajala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
