Russian forces on Saturday continued their unsuccessful efforts to secure positions from which to attack and seize Kyiv despite the supposed reframing of the Russian military’s priorities, according to the US-based Institute for the Study of War.
In its latest assessment of the conflict in Ukraine, the think tank said the “increasingly static nature of the fighting around Kyiv reflects the incapacity of Russian forces rather than any shift in Russian objectives or efforts at this time”.
However it also said that Russian forces were likely to “bisect” the besieged port city of Mariupol, in the south-east, in the coming days and would likely gain control of it in the “relatively near future”.
“The scale of Russian losses in the fight for Mariupol will determine whether the city’s fall will permit Russia to renew large-scale combat operations in eastern Ukraine. It is too soon to tell, but current indicators suggest that Russian losses have been and will continue to be high,” the institute added.
Meanwhile the captured southern city of Kherson “appears to be resisting Russian control in ways that are driving the Russian military and national guard to concentrate forces on securing it,” it wrote.
“The requirement to secure captured cities can impose a significant cost on over-stretched Russian forces and hinder their ability to conduct offensive operations.”
NEW from @TheStudyofWar & @criticalthreats: Today's control-of-terrain #map for #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) March 26, 2022
Read the full campaign assessment: https://t.co/5O2de7ev7i pic.twitter.com/TnNz2wSg5A
