Evening summary
The time in Kyiv is 9pm. Here is a round-up of the day’s headlines:
The White House has estimated that Russia’s military has suffered 100,000 casualties in the last five months in fighting against Ukraine in the Bakhmut region. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters the figure, based on US intelligence estimates, included more than 20,000 dead, half of them from the Wagner group, Reuters reported.
An explosion in the western region of Bryansk bordering Ukraine derailed a Russian freight train on Monday, the local governor said in a social media post. “An unidentified explosive device went off, as a result of which a locomotive of a freight train derailed,” Bryansk governor Alexander Bogomaz said on Telegram, adding that there were no casualties reported. Local authorities said that the derailed train was transporting “fuel and building materials.”
Russian missiles have struck warehouses reportedly storing ammunition at a railway depot in the Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad, in an apparent effort to slow Kyiv’s preparations for its much anticipated counteroffensive expected to start shortly. 34 people, including five children, were reported to be injured in the attack. Two women are said to be in intensive care.
In today’s attack on Pavlohrad, in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region, seven missiles were fired at the city, Serhii Lysak, the region’s top official, said. “Some were intercepted” but others hit an industrial facility, sparking a fire, and a residential neighbourhood where 19 apartment buildings, 25 homes, six schools and five shops were damaged, he said. Missiles also hit three other areas in the region, damaging residential buildings and a school, he said.
Video posted on social media showed secondary detonations amid a significant blaze at the site of the strike, which came amid overnight missile launches against a number of Ukrainian cities by Russian strategic bombers. Among the buildings damaged or destroyed were an industrial zone, 19 apartment buildings and 25 homes, according to Mykola Lukashuk, the head of the Dnipro region council.
The Ukrainian military reported that air defence crews had destroyed 15 out of 18 missiles launched by Russian forces in the early hours of Monday morning with air raids sirens and air defence batteries audible in Kyiv and across the country.
Ukrainian counterattacks have ousted Russian forces from some positions in the besieged eastern city of Bakhmut, but the situation remains “difficult”, a top Ukrainian general has said. “The situation is quite difficult,” said Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of ground forces. “At the same time, in certain parts of the city, the enemy was counterattacked by our units and left some positions”. Syrskyi made the remarks while visiting frontline troops on Sunday, the military said.
The head of the Wagner private militia renewed his appeal to Russia’s defence ministry to increase ammunition shipments to his fighters trying to seize the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. Yevgeny Prigozhin has frequently clashed with Moscow’s defence establishment over the conduct of Russia’s campaign in Ukraine and what he says is insufficient support being provided to his Wagner soldiers. In a video posted on his Telegram channel, Prigozhin said he needs at least 300 tonnes of artillery shells a day for the assault, Reuters reported.
One person was killed and three others were injured by Russian shelling in the Kherson region over the past 24 hours, the region’s administration said.
The governor of Chernihiv, Viacheslav Chaus, has reported the death of a child in Novhorod-Siverskyi after a mid-afternoon strike on the region.
Russian media reported on Monday what looks like two separate overnight incidents of sabotage within the Russian Federation. Alexander Bogomaz, governor of Bryansk, said a freight train was derailed as a result of an explosive device blowing up on railway tracks in the region. Aleksandr Drozdenko, governor of Leningrad region, claimed that a power transmission line support was blown up there. He wrote that an explosive device was also found on a second power pylon, but that electricity supplies had not been disrupted. Authorities in Russia say they are investigating both incidents.
Since last summer Russia has built “some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades” in the areas it controls in Ukraine as well as in its own border regions, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has written in its latest intelligence update on the conflict.
Vladimir Rogov, chair of the We Are Together with Russia organisation that operates within the occupied Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, has posted to Telegram to claim that a man has been killed by his own improvised explosives in occupied Melitopol.
Poland’s ministry of foreign affairs has issued a statement condemning the former children’s ombudsman of Russia, Pavel Astakhov, for comments he made on Russian state TV that murdering ambassadors is “within the framework of international law”, with specific reference to Poland’s ambassador. Poland called on Russia “to ensure the safety of all diplomats in accordance with the Vienna Convention”.
In Washington, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy emphatically stressed his support for military aid to Ukraine on Monday, blistering Russia’s “killing of the children” and distancing himself from some in his party who oppose additional major US aid to stave off the Russian invasion. In Israel on his first trip abroad as speaker, McCarthy flatly rejected a suggestion at a news conference that he does not support sending military and financial aid to Ukraine – and he amplified his positions on other issues back home, including his demand for debt limit negotiations with President Joe Biden.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy has spoken to New Zealand’s prime minister, Chris Hipkins. Ukraine’s president said the pair discussed “further cooperation on defence and humanitarian issues” and “the need for further consolidation of the countries of the Pacific region in supporting Ukraine.”
That’s it from the Ukraine live blog for today. Thanks for following along.
US says 20,000 Russians killed in Ukraine war since December
The White House has estimated that Russia’s military has suffered 100,000 casualties in the last five months in fighting against Ukraine in the Bakhmut region.
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters the figure, based on US intelligence estimates, included more than 20,000 dead, half of them from the Wagner group, Reuters reported.
The Bakhmut offensive has stalled and failed, he said.
In Washington, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy emphatically stressed his support for military aid to Ukraine on Monday, blistering Russia’s “killing of the children” and distancing himself from some in his party who oppose additional major US aid to stave off the Russian invasion.
In Israel on his first trip abroad as speaker, McCarthy flatly rejected a suggestion at a news conference that he does not support sending military and financial aid to Ukraine – and he amplified his positions on other issues back home, including his demand for debt limit negotiations with President Joe Biden.
“I vote for aid for Ukraine. I support aid for Ukraine,” McCarthy said, responding to a question from a Russian reporter. “I do not support what your country has done to Ukraine, I do not support your killing of the children either.”
“You should pull out,” McCarthy told the Russian reporter. “We will continue to support – because the rest of the world sees it just as it is.”
McCarthy touched down in Jerusalem leading a bipartisan delegation of US lawmakers, his first foray abroad as the new House speaker and the first to address the Israeli Knesset in 25 years, the Associated Press reported.
In case you missed it earlier, Russian missile strikes have injured 34 civilians and apparently damaged railway infrastructure and an ammunition depot in south-eastern Ukraine, hours before an explosion inside Russia derailed a freight train.
The attacks on both sides of the border on Monday apparently aimed to disrupt military logistics before a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive against occupying Russian troops, expected to start shortly in the south or the east.
The Russian strike in the Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad was part of the second wave of missile attacks in just three days; on Friday, 23 people were killed when a missile hit an apartment block in central Uman city, and a woman and her daughter died in Dnipro.
With Kyiv’s allies saying that equipment and newly trained troops promised for the next Ukrainian campaign are in place, Moscow has revived its winter tactics of attempting to orchestrate bombing campaigns far behind Ukrainian frontlines.
It launched 18 cruise missiles in the early hours of Monday morning, although 15 were intercepted by air defences, including the ones aimed at Kyiv. Support from western allies has helped Ukraine improve protection for its cities and the main military sites.
A police officer standing among the debris at a site hit by shelling in Pavlohrad, Ukraine.
Ukrainian counterattacks have ousted Russian forces from some positions in the besieged eastern city of Bakhmut, but the situation remains “difficult”, a top Ukrainian general said in comments published on Monday.
During the past few months the battle for Bakhmut has become the fulcrum of a conflict that has seen little shift in frontlines since late last year, leaving both sides looking for a breakthrough, Reuters reported.
“The situation is quite difficult,” said Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of ground forces, in a statement on Telegram.
“At the same time, in certain parts of the city, the enemy was counterattacked by our units and left some positions,” he said while visiting frontline troops on Sunday.
New Russian units, including paratroopers and fighters from the Wagner group, are being “constantly thrown into battle” despite taking heavy losses, he said, adding: “But the enemy is unable to take control of the city.”
Updated
The head of the Wagner private militia renewed his appeal to Russia’s defence ministry to increase ammunition shipments to his fighters trying to seize the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine.
Yevgeny Prigozhin has frequently clashed with Moscow’s defence establishment over the conduct of Russia’s campaign in Ukraine and what he says is insufficient support being provided to his Wagner soldiers.
In a video posted on his Telegram channel, Prigozhin said he needs at least 300 tonnes of artillery shells a day for the assault, Reuters reported.
“Three hundred tonnes a day is 10 cargo containers – not a lot at all … But we are being given no more than a third of that,” Prigozhin said as he inspected boxes of rifles in a warehouse he said was in the town of Soledar, to the north-east of Bakhmut.
Bakhmut, which had a prewar population of over 70,000, has been levelled by months of artillery shelling and urban combat between Russian and Ukrainian soldiers. Prigozhin claimed on 11 April his forces, which are leading the assault, controlled more than 80% of the city.
Wagner is not part of Russia’s official armed forces, and Prigozhin has previously accused the defence ministry of “betraying” his fighters – and Russia’s overall war aims – by not providing sufficient ammunition.
In an earlier video in front of a destroyed building in Soledar, Prigozhin said on Monday was the anniversary of Wagner’s founding, and that if the group was destined to die, it would be “not at the hands of the Ukrainian army or Nato but because of our domestic bastard-bureaucrats”.
Updated
In today’s attack on Pavlohrad, in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region, seven missiles were fired at the city, Serhii Lysak, the region’s top official, said.
“Some were intercepted” but others hit an industrial facility, sparking a fire, and a residential neighbourhood where 19 apartment buildings, 25 homes, six schools and five shops were damaged, he said.
Missiles also hit three other areas in the region, damaging residential buildings and a school, he said.
Russian defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Monday that Russia conducted “a group missile strike with long-range precision-guided airborne and seaborne weapons on facilities of Ukraine’s defence industry … all designated facilities were struck”.
The attacks also damaged Ukraine’s power network infrastructure, which will take several days to repair, according to energy minister Herman Haluschenko.
He said that nearly 20,000 people in the city of Kherson and the wider region had been left without power, along with an unspecified number of people in the Dnipropetrovsk region, including the city of Dnipro.
Updated
A residential area was hit during a Russian military strike on the Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad, struck twice overnight amid Russian missile attacks on a number of areas. An industrial zone, 19 apartment buildings and 25 homes in Pavlohrad were damaged or destroyed. Here is a video clip showing the aftermath.
The governor of Chernihiv, Viacheslav Chaus, has reported the death of a child after a mid-afternoon strike on the region. He posted to Telegram:
The enemy continues to hit the civilian infrastructure. Around 3:37pm (1.37pm BST), a hit was recorded at a closed educational institution in Novhorod-Siverskyi. There are reports of the death of a child who was nearby. Information about the victims is being clarified.
The claims have not been independently verified.
Suspilne, Ukraine's state broadcaster, reports that its correspondents have again heard explosions in Kherson. This is a frequent occurrence during the day in the city, which sits across the Dnieper River from the southern portion of Kherson region, an area that remains occupied by Russian forces.
Vladimir Rogov, chair of the We Are Together with Russia organisation that operates within the occupied Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, has posted to Telegram to claim that a man has been killed by his own explosives in occupied Melitopol. Rogov posted to Telegram:
In a detached barn, an IED with submunitions self-detonated. As a result of the incident, a local resident born in 1961, who assembled this device, died.
When examining the scene of the incident, it was established that the cause of the explosion was the operation of a non-shell explosive device with a charge mass of about 2kg. In the same place, a second IED was found with an explosive mass of 500g.
Rogov claimed that the size and design of the IED meant they would only have been use against civilian targets, as they were not sufficiently large for military use. He said the detontation happened “as a result of the inept handling of explosives”, and that “police are looking for possible accomplices of the deceased.”
The post was accompanied by pictures which claim to show the remaining IED. The claims have not been independently verified.
A view of a residential area hit by a Russian military strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in the town of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region.
Here’s some more on that claim from Russia’s defence ministry that it carried out missile strikes on Ukrainian military targets overnight.
Reuters is reporting:
Russia’s defence ministry said on Monday its forces had carried out missile strikes overnight against Ukrainian military sites, including weapons depots and ammunition factories, and that all its designated targets had been hit.
Earlier, Ukrainian officials said the airstrikes – the second such wave in three days – had caused a fire in the Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad, a railway hub behind the southern and eastern fronts, wounding at least 34 people and damaging dozens of homes.
“Overnight, Russia’s armed forces launched a group of missile strikes using high-precision long-range air and sea-based weapons against Ukraine’s military-industrial facilities,” the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.
“The objectives of the strike were achieved … the work of enterprises making ammunition, weapons and military equipment for Ukrainian troops has been disrupted,” it said.
Ukraine said 15 out of 18 cruise missiles launched by Russia were shot down, shielding the capital Kyiv and other major cities where air raid sirens rang.
In its daily briefing on developments on the frontline, Moscow also said Russian forces had continued their advance in the city of Bakhmut – the now devastated eastern Ukrainian city that Russia has been trying to capture for months.
On Friday, Russia killed 23 civilians with a missile that hit a high-rise apartment building in the city of Uman, part of its first large countrywide volley of airstrikes in nearly two months.
Russia has repeatedly denied targeting civilians during the 14 months since it invaded Ukraine.
Updated
Russia’s defence ministry said its forces carried out missile strikes against Ukrainian military targets overnight, Russian state news agencies reported.
The defence ministry said all its designated targets – including weapons depots and ammunition factories – had been hit, Reuters reported.
It also said Russian forces were continuing their advance in the city of Bakhmut.
Updated
Russian freight train derailed by explosion in Bryansk, governor confirms
An explosion in the western region of Bryansk bordering Ukraine derailed a Russian freight train on Monday, the local governor said in a social media post.
“An unidentified explosive device went off, as a result of which a locomotive of a freight train derailed,” Bryansk governor Alexander Bogomaz said on Telegram, adding that there were no casualties reported.
Local authorities said that the derailed train was transporting “fuel and building materials.”
Pictures shared on social media showed several tank carriages laying on their side and dark grey smoke rising into the air at the site of the derailment, about 37 miles north of Russia’s border with Ukraine.
It was not immediately clear who was responsible for the attack.
There has been an uptick in incidents involving Russia’s railway system in the 14 months since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine.
Russian authorities have arrested at least 66 Russians on suspicion of railway sabotage since last fall, according to the independent Russian website Mediazona.
Separately, the governor of Russia’s Leningrad region near St. Petersburg said a power line had been blown up overnight and an explosive device found near a second line.
Summary of the day so far …
Russian missiles have struck warehouses reportedly storing ammunition at a railway depot in the Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad, in an apparent effort to slow Kyiv’s preparations for its much anticipated counteroffensive expected to start shortly. Thirty-four people, including five children, were reported to be injured in the attack. Two women are said to be in intensive care.
Video posted on social media showed secondary detonations amid a significant blaze at the site of the strike, which came amid overnight missile launches against a number of Ukrainian cities by Russian strategic bombers. Among the buildings damaged or destroyed were an industrial zone, 19 apartment buildings and 25 homes, according to Mykola Lukashuk, the head of the Dnipro region council.
The Ukrainian military reported that air defence crews had destroyed 15 out of 18 missiles launched by Russian forces in the early hours of Monday morning with air raids sirens and air defence batteries audible in Kyiv and across the country.
Ukrainian counterattacks have ousted Russian forces from some positions in the besieged eastern city of Bakhmut, but the situation remains “difficult”, a top Ukrainian general has said. “The situation is quite difficult,” said Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of ground forces. “At the same time, in certain parts of the city, the enemy was counterattacked by our units and left some positions.” Syrskyi made the remarks while visiting frontline troops on Sunday, the military said.
One person was killed and three others were injured by Russian shelling in the Kherson region over the past 24 hours, the region’s administration said.
Russian media reported on Monday what looked like two separate overnight incidents of sabotage within the Russian Federation. Alexander Bogomaz, governor of Bryansk, said a freight train was derailed as a result of an explosive device blowing up on railway tracks in the region. Aleksandr Drozdenko, governor of Leningrad region, claimed that a power transmission line support was blown up there. He wrote that an explosive device was also found on a second power pylon, but that electricity supplies had not been disrupted. Authorities in Russia say they are investigating both incidents.
Since last summer Russia has built “some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades” in the areas it controls in Ukraine as well as in its own border regions, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has written in its latest intelligence update on the conflict.
Poland’s ministry of foreign affairs has issued a statement condemning the former children’s ombudsman of Russia, Pavel Astakhov, for comments he made on Russian state TV that murdering ambassadors is “within the framework of international law”, with specific reference to Poland’s ambassador. Poland called on Russia “to ensure the safety of all diplomats in accordance with the Vienna Convention”.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy has spoken to New Zealand’s prime minister, Chris Hipkins. Ukraine’s president said the pair discussed “further cooperation on defence and humanitarian issues” and “the need for further consolidation of the countries of the Pacific region in supporting Ukraine.”
Updated
Peter Beaumont is in Ukraine for the Guardian:
According to some Ukrainian sources, one location hit in Pavlohrad was a plant that produced solid fuel for Soviet-era rocket motors and which had a number of expired solid fuel motors awaiting decommissioning, although that claim could not be immediately verified.
Updated
Russian media is reporting this morning on what looks like two separate overnight incidents of sabotage within the Russian Federation.
Tass reports that Alexander Bogomaz, governor of Bryansk, has posted to his Telegram channel to say that a freight train was derailed as a result of an explosive device blowing up on railway tracks in the region.
Meanwhile, Aleksandr Drozdenko, governor of Leningrad region, has claimed on his Telegram channel that a power transmission line support was blown up there. He wrote that an explosive device was also found on a second power pylon, but that electricity supplies had not been disrupted.
The claims have not been independently verified. Authorities in Russia say they are investigating both incidents.
Poland’s ministry of foreign affairs has issued a statement condemning the former children’s ombudsman of Russia, Pavel Astakhov, for comments he made on Russian state TV that murdering ambassadors is “within the framework of international law”, with specific reference to Poland’s ambassador.
In the show, Astakhov recalled how red paint was poured over Russia’s ambassador to Poland, Sergei Andreev, last year. Astakhov then said he wondered why Poland’s ambassador to Russia was yet to be “found floating in the Moskva River”.
Łukasz Jasina, spokesperson for Poland’s ministry of foreign affairs, said in the statement:
The ministry of foreign affairs of the Republic of Poland condemns Pavel Astakhov’s statement that the murder of the Polish ambassador is admissible. We call on Russia to ensure the safety of all diplomats in accordance with the Vienna Convention.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy has posted to Telegram to say that he has spoken to New Zealand’s prime minister, Chris Hipkins.
Ukraine’s president said:
Had a phone call with prime minister of New Zealand Chris Hipkins. Thanked New Zealand for the participation in the training of our military. We count on its continuation, as well as on further cooperation on defence and humanitarian issues. We discussed the need for further consolidation of the countries of the Pacific region in supporting Ukraine.
Streaks of tracer fire lit up the sky last night over Kyiv as Ukrainian air defence systems repelled Russian missile attacks and air raid sirens blared across the country for more than three hours. Here is a short video clip of what that looked like.
The US ambassador to Ukraine has condemned the latest overnight attack by Russia as “barbaric” in a tweet. Bridget Brink wrote:
Russia again launched missiles in the deep of night at Ukrainian cities where civilians, including children, should be able to sleep safely and peacefully. I am grateful for those who protect Ukraine’s skies, and the US will continue to work hard and fast to support them and their ability to defeat Russia’s barbaric attacks on the people of Ukraine.
At least 34 known to be injured, including five children, after Pavlohrad attack
Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, has reported updated casualty figures after the attack on the Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad overnight which appeared to have targeted an ammunition depot as well as striking apartment buildings and homes. It reports:
The number of people injured due to a rocket strike on Pavlohrad has increased to 34, including five children, reported the head of the regional authority. Two women are in intensive care.
Alicia Kearns, the Conservative MP who is chair of the foreign affairs select committee at the House of Commons in London, has tweeted in favour of what she calls “an ‘economic “Ramstein”’ of those fighting for Ukraine’s freedom.”
Responding to a thread of figures showing that sanctions have not had as a big an impact on Russia’s economy as western nations had intended, she said:
This highly detailed thread gives even more credence to the need for an ‘Economic “Ramstein”’ of those fighting for Ukraine’s freedom. It is clear we have failed to adequately financially suffocate Putin’s war machine, and we must prevent him being able to fund his attacks on civilians. We can only do that if we mobilise as governments to coordinate economically as well as militarily.
Kearns embedded in her tweet a link to thread by the Institute of International Finance’s chief economist Robin Brooks, which you read here.
Ramstein is the US military base in Germany where members of the Ukraine defence contact group have repeatedly met to discuss arming and supplying Ukraine’s military.
Updated
Dmitry Medvedev, long-term ally of Vladimir Putin, and currently deputy chair of the Security Council of Russia, has delivered a May day broadside against Twitter, which has removed one of his recent posts. In the message he issued a threat to a wide range of targets outside Russia. In his Telegram post, the former president and prime minister of Russia wrote:
Seriously, we can do without [Twitter]. After all, this is just a foreign social network operating in the interests of the American establishment. We quite cynically used it to advance our propaganda goals.
Our main task is completely different: to inflict a devastating defeat on all enemies – the Ukronazis, the US, their minions in Nato, including vile Poland, and other western nits.
We must finally return all our lands. Forever protect all of our people. We will work hard for this.
Happy 1 May everyone!
Since last summer Russia has built “some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades” in the areas it controls in Ukraine as well as in its own border regions, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has written in its latest intelligence update on the conflict.
Imagery shows that Russia has made a particular effort to fortify the northern border of occupied Crimea, it said, adding that Russia had also dug “hundreds of miles of trenches well inside internationally recognised Russian territory including in the Belgorod and Kursk regions”.
The defences “highlight Russian leaders’ deep concern that Ukraine could achieve a major breakthrough,” the MoD said, although it added that “some works have likely been ordered by local commanders and civil leaders in attempts to promote the official narrative that Russia is ‘threatened’ by Ukraine and NATO”.
(3/5) Russia has also dug hundreds of miles of trenches well inside internationally recognised Russian territory including in the Belgorod and Kursk regions.
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) May 1, 2023
One person killed and three injured in Kherson shelling
One person was killed and three others were injured by Russian shelling in the Kherson region over the past 24 hours, the region’s administration said on Telegram. A child was among those injured.
Residential areas in the region were attacked 39 times using 163 shells while the city was attacked eight times with 41 shells, the administration said in a Telegram post.
Updated
Ukrainian counterattacks have ousted Russian forces from some positions in the besieged eastern city of Bakhmut, but the situation remains “difficult”, a top Ukrainian general has said, according to Reuters.
During the past few months the battle for Bakhmut has become the fulcrum of a conflict that has seen little shift in front lines since late last year, leaving both sides looking for a breakthrough.
“The situation is quite difficult,” said Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of ground forces, in a statement on Telegram.
“At the same time, in certain parts of the city, the enemy was counterattacked by our units and left some positions.”
Syrskyi made the remarks while visiting frontline troops on Sunday, the military said. He added that new Russian units, including paratroopers and fighters from the Wagner mercenary group, were being “constantly thrown into battle” despite taking heavy losses.
“But the enemy is unable to take control of the city,” Syrskyi said.
Russian forces have steadily made incremental gains in Bakhmut, but a Ukrainian military spokesperson said on Sunday it was still possible to supply the defenders with food, ammunition and medicine.
Updated
Russian president Vladimir Putin’s regular command changes have undermined Moscow’s ability to conduct a cohesive campaign in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War has written in its latest assessment of the conflict.
The president’s reluctance to appoint an overall theater commander for his invasion had had “cascading effects on the Russian military including fueling intense factionalization, disorganizing command structures, and feeding unattainable expectations,” the think tank wrote.
His initial reluctance to appoint an overall commander may have been linked to Moscow’s expectation at the start of the invasion that it would capture Kyiv within days, it said: “Putin had likely wanted to declare this speedy invasion a personal geopolitical victory.”
Subsequent changes have either been “obscured or carefully announced” by Putin and his Ministry of Defence “to shield themselves from criticism, set up scapegoats for military failures, appease certain voices within the Russian information space, or compound efforts to sell marginal territorial gains as operational victories to the Russian public.”
The thinktank further notes:
Putin has long rotated personnel in government positions as a way to ensure that no one figure amasses too much political influence and to maintain support among competing factions.
Putin also routinely avoids outright dismissing officials and instead temporarily demotes them in order to encourage them to seek to regain his favor and to retain options for future appointments …
The regularity of the command changes is disruptive to efforts to formalize command and control and the return of formerly demoted commanders (who had failed badly) is likely exacerbating the MoD’s pervasive reputational problems as well as its operational effectiveness.
Russian missiles struck warehouses reportedly storing ammunition at a railway depot in the Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad, in an apparent effort to slow Kyiv’s preparations for its much anticipated counteroffensive expected to start shortly, the Guardian’s Peter Beaumont reports from Kyiv hours after air raid sirens rang out across the country.
Video posted on social media showed secondary detonations amid a significant blaze at the site of the strike.
Pavlohrad was struck twice during the night. Among the buildings damaged or destroyed were an industrial zone, 19 apartment buildings and 25 homes, according to Mykola Lukashuk, the head of the Dnipro region council.
The size of the fire in Pavlohrad suggests Russia may have hit an important arms depot and comes after Ukraine’s recent attack on an oil storage facility in Sevastopol, Crimea.
For more, read on here:
Updated
New Zealand prime minister Chris Hipkins will speak with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy tonight, and says the country will make further commitments to support Ukraine’s defence in the coming days.
“I’ll be restating New Zealand’s solidarity with Ukraine, and our ongoing condemnation of Russia’s egregious actions,” Hipkins said.
Hipkins is due to fly to the UK for King Charles’ coronation shortly, and said “while there we’ll be making announcements about additional support New Zealand will make to the defence of Ukraine.”
He said he would also be visiting New Zealand Defence Force personnel training Ukrainian troops outside London.
He would not share specifics on the amount of funding or nature of the support New Zealand would be offering on Monday afternoon, saying details would be announced after the conversation with Zelenskiy. Hipkins also said he had no current plans to visit Ukraine in person.
In some lighter news, plans are well under way to create the world’s biggest sing-along as an expression of solidarity with Ukraine during the Eurovision song contest next week, according to the Guardian’s North of England correspondent Mark Brown.
The #HelpUkraineSong project is aiming to “unite the world through music” by getting as many people as possible to sing the Beatles’ With a Little Help from My Friends at noon on Saturday 13 May.
Valerie Bounds, 47, who co-founded and runs a creative agency in Liverpool, thought of the idea while in London last year. She said:
I came up with this idea while I was watching someone play the piano in Euston station at Christmas time, and thought ‘Wouldn’t it be wonderful to do an incredible moment in public spaces?’
“I’m a big fan of Eurovision, I also volunteer with the Red Cross and [I] have worked with Ukrainian refugees, so it kind of all melded together.”
To find out more about it, read Mark’s report here:
Hello, and welcome back to the Guardian’s live coverage of the conflict in Ukraine with me, Helen Livingstone.
Ukraine’s armed forces say they shot down 15 out of 18 missiles launched by Russia in the early hours of Monday morning.
The attack was launched at 2.30am Kyiv time and lasted about three hours, according to Kyiv officials, who said that all missiles directed at the capital were destroyed and that there were no immediate reports of casualties or damage to infrastructure.
Ukrainian media also reported blasts in the Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions, Reuters reported.
Mykola Lukashuk, the head of the Dnipro region council, said air defence crews there shot down seven missiles, but 25 people sought medical help.
With the news that authorities in Kyiv have issued an all clear, we’re going to pause our live coverage.
We’ll be back in a few hours time – and will return if there is any further information on airstrikes across Ukraine.
Updated
All clear in Kyiv
Authorities in Kyiv have issued an “all clear” after air raid sirens sent residents rushing to shelters in the early hours of the morning.
The Kyiv city administration said:
Air siren all clear! Please keep an eye on reports and return to shelter if the siren sounds again.
Earlier, officials reported that the city’s air defence systems had been active in bringing down missiles launched from Russia.
The conflict in Ukraine has settled into near static frontlines for several months now. But with Russian forces still holding nearly a fifth of the country – and the cost of military and financial aid to Ukraine apparently starting to worry some western allies – Ukraine is expected to launch a counter-offensive in the coming weeks.
The most optimistic among Ukraine and its allies hope for a repeat of the dramatic military triumphs of last spring and autumn, when Moscow was pushed back from Kyiv and then forced out of swathes of the country’s east and south in a few weeks.
However, leaked US defence documents warned in February that Ukraine might fail to amass sufficient troops and weaponry, and fall “well short” of its goals for regaining territory. That was despite the counter-offensive serving as a driving force behind a rapid training programme and massive delivery of aid over the winter.
As the new equipment has rolled over the border, and the first weeks of spring have passed, there has been increasingly intense conjecture about when and where the counterattack might start.
It was around the same time last Friday that Russia launched another wave of strikes on cities across Ukraine.
A cruise missile strike on an apartment block in the city of Uman killed 23, while on the outskirts of Dnipro, a mother and her three-year-old daughter were killed in their home in a rural suburb.
Most of Russia’s attacks on Friday were intercepted, with 21 out of 23 missiles shot down by the Ukrainian military – but the attacks were still the most intense aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities in weeks.
Over the weekend, Emma Graham-Harrison and Artem Mazhulin reported in detail on the deadly strike on the apartment block in Uman.
Updated
We don’t know whether they’re in use yet, but it was just under two weeks ago that Ukraine announced that the Patriot air missile defence systems it had requested from its allies had arrived in the country.
Kyiv had been lobbying for the systems since before the war began, according to the country’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, who welcome their arrival last month.
“Our beautiful sky becomes more secure because Patriot air defence systems have arrived in Ukraine,” he said, thanking the US, German and Dutch governments for providing them.
The US agreed in October to send the surface-to-air systems, which can target aircraft, cruise missiles and shorter-range ballistic missiles such as those that Russia has used to bombard residential areas and the Ukrainian power grid.
The Vatican is involved in a secret peace mission to try to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Pope Francis has said.
“There is a mission in course now but it is not yet public. When it is public, I will reveal it,” the pope told reporters during a flight home after a three-day visit to Hungary according to Reuters.
“I think that peace is always made by opening channels. You can never achieve peace through closure. ... This is not easy.”
The pope added that he had spoken about the situation in Ukraine with Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban and with Metropolitan (bishop) Hilarion, a representative of the Russian Orthodox Church in Budapest.
“In these meetings we did not just talk about Little Red Riding Hood. We spoke of all these things. Everyone is interested in the road to peace,” he said.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Francis has pleaded for peace practically on a weekly basis, and has repeatedly expressed a wish to act as a broker between Kyiv and Moscow. His offer has so far failed to produce any breakthrough.
Pope Francis, 86, has said previously that he wants to visit Kyiv but also Moscow on a peace mission.
Ukraine prime minister Denys Shmyhal met the pope at the Vatican on Thursday and said he had discussed a “peace formula” put forward by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Shmyhal also asked for help in the repatriation of children. Kyiv estimates nearly 19,500 children have been taken to Russia or Russian-occupied Crimea since Moscow invaded in February last year, in what it condemns as illegal deportations.
Residents of Kyiv are reportedly sheltering in the underground metro system:
The Metro in Kyiv is filled with Residents taking Shelter from the ongoing Russian Missile Attack, reminds me a lot of February 24th 2022. pic.twitter.com/eCYVaYwi91
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 1, 2023
Air defence systems were repelling missile attacks in the early hours on Monday in the Kyiv region, local authorities said, after air raid alerts were issued throughout all of Ukraine by emergency services.
“Air defences are at work!” Kyiv’s regional administration wrote on the Telegram messaging app, after reports of explosions heard in the region, according to Reuters.
“Keep calm! Stay in shelters until the air alarm goes off!”
Ukrainian media also reported blasts in the Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions. Reuters was unable to independently verify the reports of blasts.
Noisy outside right now. Sounds like 🇺🇦 air defence having to work hard in Kyiv to respond to 🇷🇺 May Day wake up call.
— Dame Melinda Simmons (@MelSimmonsFCDO) May 1, 2023
🚨4:30 am local time. Air raid alert all over #Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/z7xEYmGGX9
— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) May 1, 2023
Opening summary
Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the war in Ukraine with me, Helen Livingstone.
Air raid sirens have sounded in Kyiv and throughout Ukraine, with some reports that Russia has launched a wave of missiles. The armed forces have urged Ukrainians to go to shelters and warned that Kyiv was under “threat of a missile strike”. There was also a “threat to the northern, central and eastern regions”, it said on its Telegram channel. “Kyiv region – air defence works,” it added, as explosions were reported in the capital.
Elsewhere today:
The head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has warned that an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive could turn into a “tragedy” for Russia, and complained that his fighters lacked ammunition, in an interview with pro-Kremlin war correspondent Semyon Pegov. Prigozhin, whose group is spearheading Russia’s attack on the embattled city of Bakhmut, predicted a Ukrainian counterattack in mid-May and said Wagner had “only 10-15% of the shells that we need.”
Pope Francis has said that the Vatican is involved in a peace mission to try to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. “I am willing to do everything that has to be done. There is a mission in course now but it is not yet public. When it is public, I will reveal it,” Pope Francis told reporters during a flight home after a three-day visit to Hungary.
The Russian army replaced its highest ranking general in charge of logistics, after days of rumours about the sacking of Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev. In a statement, the Russian defence ministry said Alexei Kuzmenkov – a former official from the National Guard – had replaced Mizintsev as “deputy defence minister of the Russian Federation, responsible for the logistical support of the Armed Forces.” The statement did not say why Mizintsev was replaced after just seven months in the job.
Ukraine said its troops were holding on to parts of the eastern city of Bakhmut. “The enemy is unable to take control over the city, despite throwing all its forces into the battle and having some success,” said Ukrainian deputy defence minister Hanna Malyar. Russia’s defence ministry earlier said its forces had taken four blocks in western Bakhmut on Sunday, according to Reuters, which could not independently confirm the claim.
Four people have been killed from an overnight Ukrainian strike on the Russian border village of Suzemka, the governor of Russia’s western Bryansk region said on Sunday. “Two more civilians have been found and removed from the rubble. Unfortunately, both of them died,” local governor Alexander Bogomaz said on Telegram.
Russian commanders have likely started “punishing breaches in discipline by detaining the offending troops in ‘Zindans’ which are improvised cells consisting of holes in the ground covered with a metal grille,” the UK Ministry of Defence said in its latest intelligence update. The army is thought to have been using “increasingly draconian” measures to enforce discipline since autumn 2022, the MoD said, and “especially since Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov assumed command of the operation in January 2023.”
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he had a “long and meaningful” telephone conversation with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron. The French presidency said Macron had reaffirmed France’s support for Ukraine to Zelenskiy, and that Macron had given an update on European coordination to give Ukraine military help.
Funerals were held for some of the 23 people who were killed on Friday when two Russian missiles hit an apartment building in the central Ukrainian city Uman. Six children were among the dead.
