Closing summary
It’s 9pm in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand:
Volodymyr Zelenskiy has ruled out giving up any Ukrainian territory in a potential peace deal with Russia. In an interview with the BBC, Ukraine’s leader said conceding land would mean Russia could “keep coming back”. Zelenskiy said a predicted spring offensive had already begun but that he believed that his country’s forces could keep resisting Russia’s advance until they were able to launch a counter-offensive.
The embattled Ukrainian city of Bakhmut will fall within a couple of months, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s mercenary group Wagner, has predicted. In an interview with a pro-war military blogger, Prigozhin forecast Bakhmut would be seized in March or April, depending on how many soldiers Ukraine commits to its defence and how well his own troops are supplied.
Russia launched a total of 36 air and sea-based cruise missiles, guided air-to-surface missiles and anti-ship missiles at Ukraine overnight into Thursday, according to Ukrainian officials. At least 16 were shot down by Ukrainian air defence batteries, Ukraine’s air force said. Among them, air defences in the south downed eight Kalibr missiles fired from a ship in the Black Sea, Ukrainian officials said.
Critical infrastructure was damaged in Russian strikes on the Lviv region in Ukraine’s west, the head of the Lviv Regional State Administration, Maksym Kozytskyi, reported on Telegram, adding that there were no casualties.
The overnight Russian bombardment did not have a major impact on power, Ukraine’s energy minister German Galushchenko and the national power grid operator Ukrenergo said. Ukraine was meeting consumer demand for the fifth successive day, Galushchenko said. Ukrenergo said it saw no need to introduce emergency power outages to conserve supplies.
Russia has “definitely changed tactics” by using decoy missiles without explosive warheads and deploying balloons to fool Ukraine’s air defences, according to a senior Ukrainian official. The goal of the decoy missiles was to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defence systems by offering too many targets, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said in an interview with the Associated Press.
Russian sortie rates have increased over the last week, following several weeks of quieter activity, the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has reported. Air activity is “now roughly in line with the average daily rate seen since summer 2022”, its latest intelligence update reads. The MoD has also reported that the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) continue to deploy a similar number of aircraft in support of the Ukraine operation to what they have for many months.
Russia “continues to introduce large numbers of troops” on to the battlefield in Ukraine, the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has said. Those troops are “ill-equipped and ill-trained” and as a result, Russian forces are “incurring a lot of casualties and we expect that that will continue”, Austin told reporters in Estonia. He added that the US was ready to defend the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania if required.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve their military aims, Gen Mark Milley, chair of America’s joint chiefs of staff, has said. In an interview with the Financial Times, Austin said he believes the war will end at the negotiating table. The Pentagon is re-examining its weapons stockpiles and may need to boost military spending after seeing how quickly ammunition has been used during the war in Ukraine, he added.
Russia’s equipment and manpower are likely “significantly depleted”, says the Institute for the Study of War. In an update posted on its website, it said Putin is “unlikely to announce measures for further escalation of the war in Ukraine, major new Russian mobilisation initiatives, or any other significant policy in his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly on 21 February.”
Russia’s defence ministry said Ukraine has returned 101 prisoners of war to Russia following talks, state-run media is reporting. Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, said 100 troops and one civilian had been returned to Ukraine. Nearly all had been defending the besieged southern city of Mariupol before it fell to Russian forces, Yermak said.
Belarus will fight alongside ally Russia if another country launches an attack against it, president Alexander Lukashenko has said. Lukashenko, who has repeatedly denied claims from Kyiv and the west that his country could be dragged further into the conflict in Ukraine on the side of Moscow, also said he planned to meet the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, on Friday.
EU countries are “on good track” to adopt new sanctions against Russia in time for the anniversary of Moscow’s attack on Ukraine on 24 February, according to diplomatic sources. The European Commission has called for a ban on the export of vital technology to Russia worth €11bn to further weaken the Kremlin’s war effort, cementing what EU officials have called the bloc’s toughest ever sanctions.
The European Commission has abandoned plans to sanction Russia’s nuclear sector or its representatives in its next sanctions package, according to a report. A leaked version of the latest proposals seen by the Guardian yesterday showed the EU had not answered Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s plea to blacklist Russia’s nuclear industry in Europe.
Norway’s parliament has announced it will donate 75 billion kroner (£6.1bn) to Ukraine as part of a five-year support package, making the oil-rich country one of the world’s biggest donors to Kyiv. The money will be split evenly between military and humanitarian assistance over five years, broken down to 15 billion kroner (£1.2bn) annually. Speaking via video link to the Norwegian parliament, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Norway’s decision set a precedent for “sustainable support”, calling it a “historic contribution”.
The UK Labour party leader, Keir Starmer, has travelled to Kyiv to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Starmer said the UK’s position on Ukraine “will remain the same” if there is a change of government next year, as he travelled to the suburbs of Irpin and Bucha where Russia committed significant atrocities last year as they were forced back by Ukrainian forces.
Israel’s foreign minister, Eli Cohen, arrived in Kyiv today to meet Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the first public visit to the Ukrainian capital by a senior Israeli official since Russia’s invasion last year. During a joint briefing with his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, Cohen said Israel would support a Ukrainian peace initiative at the UN and help secure up to $200m for healthcare and infrastructure projects.
Britain’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, and Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, have agreed on the importance of stepping up support to Ukraine in the coming weeks, Sunak’s office said. Duda’s visit to the UK comes after Nato defence ministers met in Brussels earlier this week, and ahead of the Munich Security Conference this weekend.
Russia’s foreign ministry has said it is expelling four Austrian diplomats. In a statement, the Russian ministry said Austria had taken an “unfriendly and unjustified step” and was ruining its previous position as a respected, unbiased and neutral state. The move comes after Austria’s foreign ministry said earlier this month it was expelling four Russian diplomats for behaving in a manner inconsistent with international agreements, a reason often invoked in spying cases.
The UN general assembly will vote next week on a draft resolution stressing “the need to reach, as soon as possible, a comprehensive, just and lasting peace” in Ukraine. Ukraine and its supporters hope to deepen Russia’s diplomatic isolation by seeking yes votes from nearly three-quarters of the General Assembly.
Russia has “definitely changed tactics” by using decoy missiles without explosive warheads and deploying balloons to fool Ukraine’s air defences, according to a senior Ukrainian official.
The goal of the decoy missiles was to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defence systems by offering too many targets, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said in an interview with the Associated Press.
He said:
They want to overload our anti-aircraft system to get an extra chance to hit infrastructure facilities.
Podolyak said Russian troops were facing “missile exhaustion” and that shortages were forcing the change in its tactics. Russia was mixing in older Soviet-era missiles with “new missiles that have some value”, he added.
He said Russia was also using “special air balloons” in its new strategy, but he did not go into detail about their suspected purpose.
Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, has said results from his meetings with Nato officials and members in Brussels were “optimistic”.
In a Facebook post, Reznikov said:
Threats from the sky will be better repelled. The army will be better supplied with ammunition. More of our soldiers will receive quality training.
He said discussions took place on the “practical aspects” of the “tank coalition” of countries that pledged to send battle tanks to help Ukraine fend off Russia’s invasion.
Zelenskiy rules out giving up any Ukrainian territory to Putin in potential peace deal
Volodymyr Zelenskiy has ruled out giving up any Ukrainian territory in a potential peace deal with Russia.
In an interview with the BBC, Ukraine’s leader said conceding land would mean Russia could “keep coming back”.
Zelenskiy said a predicted spring offensive had already begun. “Russian attacks are already happening from several directions,” he told the broadcaster.
But he said believed that his country’s forces could keep resisting Russia’s advance until they were able to launch a counter-offensive.
The Ukrainian leader repeated his calls for more military aid from western allies, and said western weapons would bring peace closer. He said:
Of course, modern weapons speed up peace. Weapons are the only language Russia understands.
He also addressed a warning by Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, who earlier today said his country would wage wage alongside Russian troops from his territory if a single Ukrainian soldier crossed the border.
Zelenskiy said:
I hope [Belarus] won’t join [the war]. If it does, we will fight and we will survive.
Updated
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s mercenary group Wagner, has predicted that the embattled Ukrainian city of Bakhmut will fall within a couple of months.
In an interview with a pro-war military blogger, Prigozhin forecast Bakhmut would be seized in March or April, depending on how many soldiers Ukraine commits to its defence and how well his own troops are supplied.
“Because there are a huge number of problems that need to be solved. Naturally, it will also depend on whether we continue to be bled,” he added, referring to the end of prisoner recruits.
The European Commission has abandoned plans to sanction Russia’s nuclear sector or its representatives in its next sanctions package, according to a report.
The head of the EU executive, the European Commission, had initially told EU countries that it would try to draw up sanctions targeting Russia’s civil nuclear sector.
That plan has failed, Politico reports, citing three EU diplomats. One source told the news website:
Unfortunately the nuclear sector is not included in this proposal.
A leaked version of the latest proposals seen by the Guardian yesterday showed the EU had not answered Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s plea to blacklist Russia’s nuclear industry in Europe.
For weeks, EU officials had played down the possibility of action to sanction the Russian nuclear industry, a move Hungary – a Rosatom client – has threatened to veto. Nonetheless when Ukraine’s president met EU leaders last Thursday, he urged this step, describing it as “a moral question”.
Here are some images from the UK Labour leader Keir Starmer’s visit to Ukraine today.
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Keir Starmer’s trip to Kyiv today is the start of an international charm campaign for the Labour leader, which will see him visit the Munich security conference over the weekend for meetings with world leaders.
The Guardian reported last year that the Labour leader approached the Zelenskiy government over the summer about the possibility of a visit as opposition leader.
Starmer has previously visited the Polish border and British troops in Estonia to affirm Labour’s “unshakeable” commitment to Nato which a Labour government helped to found. The trip has been postponed previously, during the turmoil of the collapse of Liz Truss’ government and because of the security situation in Ukraine.
Starmer is not the first national opposition leader to visit Kyiv. Friedrich Merz, the head of Germany’s biggest opposition party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), travelled to the capital in May and was received by Zelenskiy.
The Labour leader is keen to portray himself to the Ukrainians as a reliable partner and strong supporter. At PMQs during Zelenskiy’s visit to London earlier this month, Starmer used all his time at the despatch box to stress cross-party unity on Ukraine, rather than challenge Rishi Sunak.
He said Labour “doesn’t just hope for Ukrainian victory, we believe in it” and highlighted his time as a barrister representing victims of Serbian aggression at the International Court of Justice in the Hague. He said:
We in this house have a duty to stand on the shoulders of giants and support Ukraine’s fight for freedom, liberty and victory.
Updated
UK Labour leader Keir Starmer visits Kyiv to meet Zelenskiy
The UK Labour party leader, Keir Starmer, has travelled to Kyiv to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to emphasise his party’s commitment to backing action to arm the country against a renewed offensive by Russia.
Starmer said the UK’s position on Ukraine “will remain the same” if there is a change of government next year, as he travelled to the suburbs of Irpin and Bucha where Russia committed significant atrocities last year as they were forced back by Ukrainian forces.
Starmer told Reuters:
It’s incredible to see the evidence of atrocities that I’ve seen this morning. Photographs of civilians in the outskirts of Kyiv blindfolded, with their arms tied behind their back.
He said he had travelled to Ukraine to express solidarity with the country and to emphasise the need to pursue justice and reparations against perpetrators.
There has to be justice for this. There has to be justice in The Hague and there has to be proper reparation in the rebuilding of Ukraine.
Canada’s foreign minister, Mélanie Joly, has wrapped up her two-day visit to Ukraine by praising a recent crackdown of corruption by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s government.
Joly said she repeatedly voiced Canada’s concerns about corruption, including in meetings with Zelenskiy and other top officials. She said:
It is important, as Ukrainians are fighting for further freedom to be able to live in a democracy, that the values underpinning democracy are protected.
She also said Canada is lobbying for other allies to provide more heavy weaponry to Ukraine. Canada quickly donated four Leopard 2 tanks following an appeal from Ukraine, all of which are now in Europe.
Joly’s visit also included a meeting with both President Zelenskiy and his wife, Olena Zelenska. She also met with senior Ukrainian officials including foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, and the head of Zelenskiy’s office, Andriy Yermak.
🇺🇦 FM @DmytroKuleba met in Kyiv with his Canadian colleague 🇨🇦 @melaniejoly.
— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) February 16, 2023
We are grateful to #Canada for its unwavering support for #Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/yXR8UipY8b
Russia’s defence ministry said Ukraine has returned 101 prisoners of war to Russia following talks, state-run media is reporting.
In a statement, the Russian ministry said:
Aircraft of the military transport aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces will deliver the released servicemen to Moscow for treatment and rehabilitation in medical institutions of the Russian Defence Ministry.
Meanwhile, Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, said 100 troops and one civilian had been returned to Ukraine.
Nearly all had been defending the besieged southern city of Mariupol before it fell to Russian forces, Yermak posted to Telegram.
Updated
UK and Poland agree Ukraine support must be stepped up ‘in coming weeks’
Britain’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, and Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, have agreed on the importance of stepping up support to Ukraine in the coming weeks, Sunak’s office said.
Sunak met with Duda in Downing Street today with talks on European security and support for Kyiv high on the agenda. The Polish leader’s visit comes after Nato defence ministers met in Brussels earlier this week, and ahead of the Munich Security Conference this weekend.
Duda has reportedly said he is on a “diplomatic offensive” and he is also expected to meet with Joe Biden when the US president visits Poland later this month.
Following the Downing Street meeting, Sunak’s office said:
They both agreed it was important that support to Ukraine was accelerated in the coming weeks, and the leaders discussed the training of Ukrainian pilots on Nato standard jets that would begin in the UK shortly.
The meeting comes amid pressure from Ukraine for fighter jets, something Downing Street has said would require agreement with international allies.
Belarus will join Russia in war if attacked, warns Lukashenko
Earlier we reported that Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian president, said he would order his troops to fight alongside Russia if another country launches an attack against Belarus. We have some more detail from his news conference earlier today.
Speaking to a small group of foreign media, Lukashenko said:
I’m ready to wage war, alongside the Russians, from the territory of Belarus. But only if someone - even a single soldier - enters our territory from there (Ukraine) with weapons to kill my people.
If they commit aggression against Belarus, the response will be the most severe, and the war will take on a completely different nature.
Russia and Belarus have expanded military cooperation in recent months, holding joint drills and forming a joint military grouping.
Lukashenko has repeatedly insisted he will not join the war, but his territory was used as a launchpad for Russia’s failed push for Kyiv last year. On Thursday, he said he planned to meet Russian president Vladimir Putin tomorrow.
In late December, Putin made a rare visit to the Belarusian capital, Minsk. The Russian leader meets regularly with Lukashenko, but usually closer to home. The trip was the first time Putin had been to Belarus since 2019, and raised fears he was pushing for military help with the war in Ukraine.
Speaking to journalists today, Lukashenko blamed the west for the war in Ukraine and accused western leaders of fuelling the conflict. He said:
If you continue this escalation, you will get nuclear weapons and Russia has more than anyone. So, you should stop this. If a nuclear war starts, Belarus will cease to exist. We need to sit down at the negotiating table, because nuclear war will wipe out the USA too. No-one needs this.
Updated
Summary of the day so far
It’s 6pm in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand:
Russia launched a total of 36 air and sea-based cruise missiles, guided air-to-surface missiles and anti-ship missiles at Ukraine overnight into Thursday, according to Ukrainian officials. At least 16 were shot down by Ukrainian air defence batteries, Ukraine’s air force said. Among them, air defences in the south downed eight Kalibr missiles fired from a ship in the Black Sea, Ukrainian officials said.
Critical infrastructure was damaged in Russian strikes on the Lviv region in Ukraine’s west, the head of the Lviv Regional State Administration, Maksym Kozytskyi, reported on Telegram, adding that there were no casualties.
The overnight Russian bombardment did not have a major impact on power, Ukraine’s energy minister German Galushchenko and the national power grid operator Ukrenergo said. Ukraine was meeting consumer demand for the fifth successive day, Galushchenko said. Ukrenergo said it saw no need to introduce emergency power outages to conserve supplies.
Russian sortie rates have increased over the last week, following several weeks of quieter activity, the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has reported. Air activity is “now roughly in line with the average daily rate seen since summer 2022”, its latest intelligence update reads. The MoD has also reported that the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) continue to deploy a similar number of aircraft in support of the Ukraine operation to what they have for many months.
Russia “continues to introduce large numbers of troops” on to the battlefield in Ukraine, the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has said. Those troops are “ill-equipped and ill-trained” and as a result, Russian forces are “incurring a lot of casualties and we expect that that will continue”, Austin told reporters in Estonia. He added that the US was ready to defend the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania if required.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve their military aims, Gen Mark Milley, chair of America’s joint chiefs of staff, has said. In an interview with the Financial Times, Austin said he believes the war will end at the negotiating table. The Pentagon is re-examining its weapons stockpiles and may need to boost military spending after seeing how quickly ammunition has been used during the war in Ukraine, he added.
Russia’s equipment and manpower are likely “significantly depleted”, says the Institute for the Study of War. In an update posted on its website, it said Putin is “unlikely to announce measures for further escalation of the war in Ukraine, major new Russian mobilisation initiatives, or any other significant policy in his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly on 21 February.”
Belarus will only fight alongside ally Russia if another country launches an attack against it, president Alexander Lukashenko has said. Lukashenko, who has repeatedly denied claims from Kyiv and the west that his country could be dragged further into the conflict in Ukraine on the side of Moscow, also said he planned to meet the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, on Friday.
EU countries are “on good track” to adopt new sanctions against Russia in time for the anniversary of Moscow’s attack on Ukraine on 24 February, according to diplomatic sources. The European Commission has called for a ban on the export of vital technology to Russia worth €11bn to further weaken the Kremlin’s war effort, cementing what EU officials have called the bloc’s toughest ever sanctions.
Norway’s parliament has announced it will donate 75 billion kroner (£6.1bn) to Ukraine as part of a five-year support package, making the oil-rich country one of the world’s biggest donors to Kyiv. The money will be split evenly between military and humanitarian assistance over five years, broken down to 15 billion kroner (£1.2bn) annually. Speaking via video link to the Norwegian parliament, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Norway’s decision set a precedent for “sustainable support”, calling it a “historic contribution”.
Israel’s foreign minister, Eli Cohen, arrived in Kyiv today to meet Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the first public visit to the Ukrainian capital by a senior Israeli official since Russia’s invasion last year. During a joint briefing with his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, Cohen said Israel would support a Ukrainian peace initiative at the UN and help secure up to $200m for healthcare and infrastructure projects.
Russia’s foreign ministry has said it is expelling four Austrian diplomats. In a statement, the Russian ministry said Austria had taken an “unfriendly and unjustified step” and was ruining its previous position as a respected, unbiased and neutral state. The move comes after Austria’s foreign ministry said earlier this month it was expelling four Russian diplomats for behaving in a manner inconsistent with international agreements, a reason often invoked in spying cases.
The UN general assembly will vote next week on a draft resolution stressing “the need to reach, as soon as possible, a comprehensive, just and lasting peace” in Ukraine. Ukraine and its supporters hope to deepen Russia’s diplomatic isolation by seeking yes votes from nearly three-quarters of the General Assembly.
Good afternoon from London. It’s Léonie Chao-Fong still here with all the latest from Ukraine. Feel free to get in touch on Twitter or via email.
Updated
The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has said on Thursday that his country was ready to defend the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania if required.
“The United States remains steadfastly committed to the freedom and sovereignty of our Baltic allies,” Austin told a news conference in Tallinn after talks with Estonian leaders.
“We stand united with you to deter and defend against any threat to our common security.”
Updated
The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, is speaking at a news conference in Estonia, where he has said he is seeing Russia “continue to introduce large numbers of troops” on to the battlefield in Ukraine.
Those troops are “ill-equipped and ill-trained” and as a result, Russian forces are “incurring a lot of casualties and we expect that that will continue”.
The US and allies were working “each and every day” to deliver equipment to Ukraine “in a timely fashion”, he said.
Updated
Moldovan police have said police found missile debris in the north of the country, hours after overnight Russian missile strikes on neighbouring Ukraine.
The debris was found near Moldova’s border with Ukraine, in the village of Larga, police said in a statement.
It is at least the fourth time since November that missile debris has been found in Moldova since the conflict began last February, Reuters reports.
Israel’s foreign minister, Eli Cohen, who is in Kyiv today to meet with Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has offered his support for a Ukrainian peace initiative at the UN next week.
During a joint briefing with his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, Cohen said Israel would support a Ukrainian peace initiative at the UN and help secure up to $200m for healthcare and infrastructure projects.
Israel would also help develop a smart air raid early warning system, he added.
Without mentioning Russia, Cohen said Israel remains “firmly in solidarity with the people of Ukraine” and supports Kyiv’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
After the meeting, Kuleba tweeted that he was “thankful for all of the support that Israel and Israelis have provided over the past year”. He said:
During our detailed and frank talks, we focused on ways to enhance bilateral relations, increase assistance, and address shared security challenges,
Welcome to Kyiv, @EliCoh1. Ukraine is thankful for all of the support that Israel and Israelis have provided over the past year. During our detailed and frank talks, we focused on ways to enhance bilateral relations, increase assistance, and address shared security challenges. pic.twitter.com/e9SOIkbinc
— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) February 16, 2023
Yevgen Korniychuk, Ukraine’s ambassador to Israel, said Israel “again assured us that they will bring the early warning system, but they didn’t say when”.
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Updated
Russia expels four Austrian diplomats
Russia’s foreign ministry has said it is expelling four Austrian diplomats in a tit-for-tat move after Vienna expelled four Russian diplomats earlier this month.
In a statement, the Russian ministry said Austria had taken an “unfriendly and unjustified step” and was ruining its previous position as a respected, unbiased and neutral state.
The move comes after Austria’s foreign ministry said it was expelling four Russian diplomats for behaving in a manner inconsistent with international agreements, a reason often invoked in spying cases.
The move brought the total number of Russian diplomats Austria has expelled since 2020 to nine. Vienna has generally been more reluctant than many other western European countries to expel Russian envoys.
EU countries are “on good track” to adopt new sanctions against Russia in time for the anniversary of Moscow’s attack on Ukraine on 24 February, according to diplomatic sources.
One EU diplomat, speaking under the condition of anonymity and quoted by Reuters, said:
The package should be concluded well in time for Feb 24th, it’s on good track, there are no major sticking points.
Another said the talks were “overall relatively positive” with some technical questions raised to be worked on, before another meeting of the ambassadors, possibly next Tuesday.
The European Commission has called for a ban on the export of vital technology to Russia worth €11bn to further weaken the Kremlin’s war effort, cementing what EU officials have called the bloc’s toughest ever sanctions.
Unveiling the EU’s tenth round of sanctions against Russia since last February’s invasion, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, on Wednesday said the EU was targeting industrial goods that Russia needed, such as electronic components for drones and helicopters; spare parts for trucks and jet engines; construction equipment such as antennas or cranes that could be turned to military uses.
The latest sanctions will also put further restrictions on Russian exports believed to generate revenues for the Russian state, from roses, to chemicals, to pipes and tubes. The bloc also aims to close loopholes, for example to stop Russian oligarchs using non-Russian private jet charter companies, or from seeking to hide their assets.
The latest proposals will also add more Russians and Ukrainians working for Russia in the occupied territories to the sanctions list. Set to be targeted are more Russian politicians, propagandists, as well as judges in occupied Ukraine cooperating with Russian authorities.
A leaked version of the latest proposals, seen by the Guardian, shows the EU has not answered Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s plea to blacklist Russia’s nuclear industry in Europe.
Updated
Neither side likely to achieve aims in the war, says US general
Gen Mark Milley, chair of America’s joint chiefs of staff, has said neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve their military aims, and he believes the war will end at the negotiating table.
The Pentagon is re-examining its weapons stockpiles and may need to boost military spending after seeing how quickly ammunition has been used during the war in Ukraine, Milley said in an interview with the Financial Times.
While he did not tie the depletion of stockpiles to his support for peace talks, Milley said he still believed the war would end at the negotiating table.
He said:
It will be almost impossible for the Russians to achieve their political objectives by military means. It is unlikely that Russia is going to overrun Ukraine. It’s just not going to happen.
It would also be “very, very difficult for Ukraine this year to kick the Russians out of every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine”, he said, adding:
It’s not to say that it can’t happen … But it’s extraordinarily difficult. And it would require essentially the collapse of the Russian military.
On Tuesday, Milley said Russia has lost “strategically, operationally and tactically” during a joint news conference with the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin.
He said at the time:
Russia is a global pariah and the world remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience. In short, Russia has lost – they’ve lost strategically, operationally and tactically and they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield.
As my colleague Peter Beaumont writes, Milley’s statements are not very clear.
Garbled messaging from Milley. One moment he is saying Russia has lost tactically and strategically. Then that war will not be won on battlefield by either side. Not completely contradictory but not very clear either. https://t.co/x8KGSn00MB
— petersbeaumont (@petersbeaumont1) February 16, 2023
Asked by the FT if the moment for diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine had passed, Milley said both sides were “dug in pretty hard on their objectives” and unwilling to negotiate. He added:
We’re weeks away from the beginning of spring, but it’s a rolling window. There’s opportunities at any moment in time.
Updated
Norway announces £6.1bn aid package to Ukraine
Norway’s parliament has announced it will donate 75 billion kroner (£6.1bn) to Ukraine as part of a five-year support package, making the oil-rich country one of the world’s biggest donors to Kyiv.
The money will be split evenly between military and humanitarian assistance over five years, broken down to 15 billion kroner (£1.2bn) annually.
For 2023, half the package will fund military aid to Ukraine and the rest is to go to humanitarian assistance, although this breakdown could change in coming years.
Speaking via video link to the Norwegian parliament, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Norway’s decision set a precedent for “sustainable support”, calling it a “historic contribution”.
The package, announced earlier this month by the prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, is the largest aid programme Norway has ever supplied to a single nation.
The wealthy Scandinavian country, a major petroleum exporter, has earned billions in extra oil and gas revenue from Russia’s war.
Its oil and gas revenues have soared to record levels over the past 12 months as energy prices tripled after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Norway replaced Russia as Europe’s largest supplier of natural gas.
A broad group of political parties agreed the package. Only the small socialist Red Party opposed the donation because part of the money was earmarked for weapons.
Updated
16 of 36 Russian missiles shot down during overnight bombardment, say Ukrainian officials
Russia launched a total of 36 air and sea-based cruise missiles, guided air-to-surface missiles and anti-ship missiles at Ukraine overnight into Thursday, according to Ukrainian officials.
At least 16 were shot down by Ukrainian air defence batteries, Ukraine’s air force said.
Among them, air defences in the south downed eight Kalibr missiles fired from a ship in the Black Sea, Ukrainian officials said. Other missiles struck northern and western Ukraine as well as the central regions of Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad.
The overnight bombardment did not have a major impact on power, Ukraine’s energy minister German Galushchenko and the national power grid operator Ukrenergo said.
Ukraine was meeting consumer demand for the fifth successive day, Galushchenko said. Ukrenergo said it saw no need to introduce emergency power outages to conserve supplies.
Ukrenergo chief Volodymyr Kudrytskyi said the energy situation could remain “stable” if Ukraine does not suffer damage to energy infrastructure on the same scale as in the autumn, when Russia pummelled the country’s energy facilities and caused widespread blackouts.
He said:
We have improved the situation but we are still far off absolute stability.
Updated
US vice-president Kamala Harris will meet with foreign leaders including Germany’s Olaf Scholz, French president Emmanuel Macron and the UK’s Rishi Sunak at the Munich Security Conference to discuss support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, the White House has said.
A White House official said:
The vice president will discuss next steps in our support for Ukraine on the battlefield and efforts to impose costs on Russia.
Harris will also meet the prime ministers of Finland and Sweden, Sanna Marin and Ulf Kristersson, to discuss their Nato bids and will address relations with China in meetings with foreign leaders, the official added.
The 59th Munich Security Conference will be held in Germany beginning Friday 17 February.
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Israeli foreign minister visits Ukraine for first time since war began
Israel’s foreign minister, Eli Cohen, arrived in Kyiv today to meet Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the first public visit to the Ukrainian capital by a senior Israeli official since Russia’s invasion last year.
Cohen is expected to meet with Zelenskiy as well as senior Ukrainian officials and leaders of the country’s Jewish community as part of the brief trip.
His visit came just before the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and as western allies seek to ramp up support for Kyiv.
I arrived in Kyiv this morning, for the first visit of an Israeli minister to Ukraine since the beginning of the war.
— אלי כהן | Eli Cohen (@elicoh1) February 16, 2023
During my meeting with President Zelensky and Foreign Minister Kuleba, we will discuss the reopening of the Israeli embassy in Kiev, >> pic.twitter.com/WK27EqGtZU
which will return to full and continuous activity. I am also planning to visit Bocha and Babi Yar.
— אלי כהן | Eli Cohen (@elicoh1) February 16, 2023
I came to say: Israel stands by Ukraine and by the Ukrainian people in their difficult time.
It was unclear whether Cohen would announce greater Israeli assistance to Ukraine, or whether the visit signifies greater engagement going forward.
Israel has supported Ukraine and provided humanitarian aid, and would continue to do so, Cohen said during a visit to a mass grave memorial in Bucha, outside Kyiv. He said:
We’re here on an important visit of solidarity with the Ukrainian nation, which has certainly endured a very hard time in the past year.
Since the outbreak of the war, Israel has walked a tightrope between assisting Kyiv and avoiding friction with Moscow, with which it has strategic regional interests.
While Israel has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has limited its assistance to Kyiv to humanitarian aid and protective gear. It has not imposed sanctions on Russia or Russian officials, shared intelligence or provided Ukraine with weapons.
The prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has spoken about reviewing Israeli policy on the war in Ukraine but has stopped short of pledging any direct supply of arms to Kyiv.
Hello everyone, it’s Léonie Chao-Fong here again with all the latest developments from the Russia-Ukraine war. Feel free to drop me a message if you have anything to flag, you can reach me on Twitter or via email.
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Switzerland has launched proceedings to confiscate more than 130m Swiss francs linked to the entourage of the former Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, who was deposed in 2014, according to Reuters.
Reuters’ report:
The Swiss government has initiated proceedings with the Federal Administrative Court to seize money presumed to be of “illicit origin”, Bern said in a statement.
The people involved were linked to Yanukovych, who fled to Russia after being ousted by mass protests in 2014.
Switzerland last year began looking into confiscating 100 million Swiss francs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but raised the targeted amount to 130 million francs following further deliberations.
The assets will remain frozen pending a final decision by the Federal Administrative Court, the government said, adding that any assets that are seized will be returned to the Ukrainian people under an international agreement.
Switzerland said the confiscation of assets only applied in exceptional circumstances, such as when a foreign state had previously attempted to confiscate the assets but had been unable to do so.
Yanukovych’s Swiss-based assets were frozen in 2014, and Ukraine had asked for help recovering them, although its efforts had been made more difficult by the war.
The assets “were the subject of criminal proceedings in Ukraine and mutual assistance procedures initiated by Ukraine,” the government said.
“The purpose of the proceedings is to determine in the specific circumstances concerned whether the assets are of illicit origin and can therefore be confiscated.”
Switzerland said the measure was unrelated to the sanctions list which applies to 1,386 Russian nationals imposed since the Russian invasion in February 2022
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Russian sortie rates increasing, says UK
The UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has reported that Russian sortie rates have increased over the last week, following several weeks of quieter activity, and that “air activity is now roughly in line with the average daily rate seen since summer 2022”.
The MoD has also reported that the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) continue to deploy a similar number of aircraft in support of the Ukraine operation to what they have for many months.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 16 February 2023
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) February 16, 2023
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/oVN5aUDUXM
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/BvgPBloC3j
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The United States has said it will provide $200m to the Czech Republic for military upgrades and for the replacement of equipment the Czechs are sending to Ukraine, the US embassy has said.
According to the news agency CTK, the donation is in addition to $106m pledged last year.
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Here is an image of Zelenskiy’s address to Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre.
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Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, has said that he would only order his troops to fight alongside ally Russia if another country launches an attack against Belarus, the state-run Belta news agency reports.
Reuters reports that Lukashenko, who has repeatedly denied claims from Kyiv and the west that his country could be dragged further into the conflict in Ukraine on the side of Moscow, also said he planned to meet the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, on Friday.
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The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has thanked Norway on Thursday for agreeing to pass a bilateral aid package of about $7bn over five years.
Speaking to Norwegian lawmakers via video link, Zelenskiy said “the support that Norway is providing for our country sets a precedent for sustainable support”.
The package, which was announced on 6 February, is the largest aid programme Norway has supplied to a single nation.
Norway, a major petroleum exporter, has seen its government income swell to record levels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the price of gas sold to Europe soared last year.
You can read more context regarding the aid package below:
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A poll has revealed that one year after Russia began its war of aggression against Ukraine, 61% of Europeans believe Ukraine will be successful.
PA reports:
One year into the war in Ukraine, 61% of Europeans believe that the country will prevail. Germans, however, are not quite so optimistic, although a 55% majority believes in a Ukrainian victory. These are the findings of the EU-wide survey conducted by eupinions. It is published in cooperation with the Belgian King Baudouin Foundation.
Europeans are not only betting on victory, 68% also see the war of aggression as a matter affecting them all, because it is an attack on the whole of Europe. Most EU citizens polled also see Ukraine in a battle to defend a set of common values that are shared by all European states.
“This unity is an important signal,” says Isabell Hoffmann, Europe expert at the Bertelsmann Stiftung and head of eupinions. “Common values are a cornerstone of the support provided to Ukraine by the EU and its member states. The longer this war drags on, the more important it is for Ukrainians to know that the majority of EU citizens acknowledge their achievements.”
A total of 62% of Europeans agree with the statement that Ukrainians are also fighting for Europe’s freedom and prosperity.
The greatest differences are revealed in the question of the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia. While 40% of respondents consider sanctions to be an effective instrument, the same number consider them ineffective, and around 20% are undecided.
There is, however, a consensus on the question of who is to blame for the war: Here, too, 66% say that Russia bears responsibility for the war.
Also 66% express a sense of unease, stating that the world today is a dangerous place and that it used to be a much better place.
“The level of anxiety is exceptionally high right now. Given the brutality of the war, the toll it’s taking, and the overall level of threat, this is not surprising. What’s really remarkable, however, is that the most anxious are just as supportive of Ukraine as are EU citizens as a whole,” explains Hoffmann.
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An estimated 1.1 million people arrived in Germany from Ukraine in 2022, exceeding the number of arrivals from the Middle East around 2015, Germany’s federal statistical office said on Thursday.
According to Reuters, excluding those who returned to Ukraine, immigration from Ukraine came to 962,000 last year, more than the total of 834,000 that came from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq together between 2014 and 2016.
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Photograph: APAImages/Rex/Shutterstock
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Here is more detail on the wave of missiles launched on Ukraine in the early hours of this morning.
Ukrainian officials said air defences in the south downed eight Kalibr missiles fired from a ship in the Black Sea, but other missiles struck northern and western Ukraine as well as the central regions of Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovograd.
As we’ve reported, one missile struck an industrial site in the western city of Lviv, causing a fire that was brought under control.
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Persistent high inflation, fuelled by elevated gas prices, will limit growth recovery in the ex-Soviet bloc this year, Europe’s development bank forecast today.
While wholesale gas prices in Europe have largely returned to levels seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 12 months ago, “in real terms, such levels are comparable to the highs of the 1980s”, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said in a key report.
Founded in 1991 to help former Soviet bloc countries switch to free-market economies, the EBRD has since extended its investment reach to include nations in the Middle East and north Africa.
Presenting its latest forecasts Thursday, the London-based institution said gross domestic product in the bank’s regions was expected to grow 2.1% in 2023, down from an estimate of 3.0% made in September.
GDP output across the three continents is estimated to have grown by about 2.4% last year, “slower than in 2021 as the war on Ukraine took its toll and the post-Covid recovery has mostly run out of steam”.
Russia’s equipment and manpower are likely “significantly depleted”, says the Institute for the Study of War.
In an update posted on its website, it said that, “Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to sustain a successful large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine”.
The Institute also believes that Putin is “unlikely to announce measures for further escalation of the war in Ukraine, major new Russian mobilisation initiatives, or any other significant policy in his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly on 21 February.”
Putin is due to address the upper and lower houses of Russia’s parliament next week, a few days before the anniversary of the war.
Russia’s costly military campaign in #Ukraine has likely significantly depleted #Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to sustain a successful large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine.https://t.co/VGVhIP3NAd pic.twitter.com/SEFALNrWPw
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 16, 2023
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Chinese diplomat expresses support for contributing 'towards peace' in visit to France
French president Emmanuel Macron and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi agreed Wednesday to contribute “towards peace” in Ukraine, Macron’s office said following talks between the two men.
Macron has not hidden his hope that Beijing, which remains an important ally of Moscow and has not condemned the invasion of Ukraine launched nearly a year ago, will pressure Russia to return to the negotiating table.
In Paris on Wednesday, Macron and Wang discussed the war and its “consequences on the most vulnerable countries, particularly in terms of food security and financing capacity,” according to the French presidency.
Both Macron and Wang “expressed the same objective of contributing to peace in accordance with international law”, the Élysée Palace said, without specifying what each country’s contributions would be.
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UN general assembly to vote on draft peace resolution next week
The UN general assembly will vote next week on a draft resolution stressing “the need to reach, as soon as possible, a comprehensive, just and lasting peace” in Ukraine, Reuters reports.
The vote will happen on the as Ukraine marks one year since Russia’s invasion.
The UN will, not for the first time, demand Moscow withdraw its troops and calls for a halt to hostilities. The 193-member General Assembly is likely to vote next Thursday after two days of speeches by dozens of states to mark the 24 February anniversary of the start of the war.
Ukraine and its supporters hope to deepen Russia’s diplomatic isolation by seeking yes votes from nearly three-quarters of the General Assembly to match or exceed the support received for several resolutions last year.
“We count on very broad support from the membership. What is at stake is not just the fate of Ukraine, it is the respect of the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of every state,” said European Union Ambassador Olof Skoog, who helped lead the drafting of the General Assembly resolution.
Russia’s Deputy UN Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy declined to comment on the draft resolution, which member states received on Wednesday.
Critical infrastructure hit in Russian strikes on western region of Lviv
Critical infrastructure was damaged in Russian strikes on the Lviv region in Ukraine’s west, the head of the Lviv Regional State Administration, Maksym Kozytskyi, reported on Telegram, adding that there were no casualties.
“During the air alert, a critical infrastructure object was hit in the Lviv region. There are no victims . The fire was extinguished. Details later. Keep yourselves. Don’t ignore the sirens,” he said.
The strike occurred in the early hours of Thursday morning. It is shortly before 8am in Lviv.
Air raid sirens sounded in cities and towns across Ukraine, but so far the damage in Lviv is the only reported strike.
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Welcome and summary
Hello, my name is Helen Sullivan and I’ll be bringing you the latest news from Ukraine.
Air raid alarms sounded in cities across Ukraine early on Thursday morning, as Russian strikes hit critical infrastructure in Lviv, in the country’s west. There were no casualties. We’ll have more on this shortly.
In the meantime, here are the key recent developments:
Russian forces are mounting “round-the-clock” attacks on Ukrainian positions in the east, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar has said. “The situation is tense. Yes, it is difficult for us,” Maliar posted to Telegram. The situation in Luhansk remained difficult, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s office said, without mentioning any retreats in eastern Ukraine.
Russia is sending heavy equipment and mobilised troops into the Luhansk region but Ukrainian forces continue to defend the eastern Ukrainian region, its governor, Serhiy Haidai, has said. The Russian defence ministry claimed earlier its troops had broken through two fortified lines of Ukrainian defences on the eastern front of Luhansk. It said Ukrainian troops had retreated in the face of Russian attacks, but did not say in which part of the region. Haidai said Russia’s claim that Ukrainian troops had pulled back “does not correspond to reality”.
The Wagner boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has admitted that his mercenary group is facing difficulties in Ukraine. “The number of Wagner units will decrease, and we will also not be able to carry out the scope of tasks that we would like to,” Prigozhin said, amid growing evidence that his political influence in the Kremlin is waning.
Six aerial targets were spotted over Kyiv during an air alert in the Ukrainian capital, and most were shot down after being engaged with air defences, according to the Kyiv military administration. In a Telegram post, it said the six Russian balloons may have been carrying corner reflectors and reconnaissance equipment. It did not specify when they flew over the capital.
Ukraine’s allies have said it is unlikely they will be able to supply the number of tanks previously promised. After a meeting in Brussels of western defence ministers, the German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, said they would not be able reach the size of a battalion. The bad news comes just after the Nato chief, Jens Stoltenberg, announced that Russia had begun a renewed offensive in the east in an attempt to take more territory before new western equipment arrives in the spring.
Nato countries are increasing the production of 155mm artillery rounds and need to ramp up that production even further to help Ukraine, Stoltenberg has said. Stoltenberg said allies have not reached conclusions on a new pledge for defence spending, but it was “obvious that we need to spend more”.
The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has said Ukraine has a “real good chance” of taking the initiative on the battlefield. Speaking after a meeting with Nato defence ministers in Brussels, Austin said that for every system that Nato provided, it would train troops on that system. “We’re laser-focused on making sure that we provide a capability and not just the platform,” he said.
Russia’s army is estimated to have lost nearly 40% of its prewar fleet of tanks after nine months of fighting in Ukraine, according to a count by the specialist thinktank the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS). That rises to as much as 50% for some of the key tanks used in combat, forcing Russia to reach into its still sizeable cold war-era stocks. Ukraine’s tank numbers are estimated to have increased because of the number it has captured, as well as supplies of Soviet-era tanks from its western allies.
Ukraine will receive a package of support worth £200m from the UK and other European nations for military equipment, including spare parts for tanks and artillery ammunition, the British government has announced. Britain agreed with the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland and Lithuania to send an initial package of support to Ukraine, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said.
The European Commission has called for a ban on the export of vital technology to Russia worth €11bn to further weaken the Kremlin’s war effort, cementing what EU officials have called the bloc’s toughest-ever sanctions. The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said the EU was targeting industrial goods that Russia needed, such as electronic components for drones and helicopters; spare parts for trucks and jet engines; and construction equipment such as antennas or cranes that could be turned to military uses.
