Last week in Brussels, US President Joe Biden suggested that Russia should be removed from the Group of Twenty, or G20 as it is more commonly known, the economic forum of industrialised and developing countries. He reiterated that with the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war, it could not be business as usual for Russia in international institutions and the international community. Mr Biden's comment sent a shockwave through Asean capitals. During the second and third week of November, Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand are hosting different summits with Russia, as a key member, along with China and the US and its allies. These meetings are the G20, East Asia Summit and Apec leaders' meeting. They could be two hubristic weeks of summits.
Mr Biden's new hardline branding of Russian President Vladimir Putin as a war criminal and a butcher prompted the foreign ministers from those three Asean member states to hold an informal consultation virtually last week. They discussed what the common response to the invitation should be and the participation of member countries during the November summits. During the exchanges, they discussed various scenarios which could play out later this year. In international politics, November is still eight months away, so anything is still possible, pending the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Asean often sees itself as a fulcrum for great powers to meet and consult, as the late Dr Surin Pitsuwan, former secretary-general of Asean, used to say. If that is the case, then Asean, within the context of a new global order, could play an important role in bridging the gap between all conflicting parties, forging a new cooperative spirit. After all, Asean has no enemies, it is a neutral ground for all to engage or reengage. Obviously, we are not in times of peace as before, so such optimism could be a fairytale.
However, given the trajectory of what happened last week in Brussels, the drumbeat of stronger US and European measures against Russia is getting louder by the day, especially after Mr Biden's comment in Warsaw that Mr Putin should not remain in power. Truth be told, today, the battle between Moscow and Kyiv is the only game, and it can be stopped only through a political settlement. Sad but true, the economic war will continue and even intensify to ensure that the aggressor continues to bleed. The new realignment of economic cooperation and production chain resilience will also change the nature of international trade regimes that we used to know.
From Nov 10-13, Cambodia is holding the 40th and 41st Asean-related summits and meetings, when leaders from Asean and dialogue members are scheduled to rendezvous in Phnom Penh. Among them will be top officials from Russia. Mr Putin attended the Asean summit in 2008 in Singapore for the first time and Moscow was awarded a strategic partnership status. Last year, Mr Putin also attended Asean-related meetings virtually. Over the past years, Mr Putin has sought to develop closer ties with Asean. Recently, both sides adopted secondary action plans to further cement their all-round cooperation. Meanwhile, Asean looks to Russia to transfer advanced and space-related technology.
In the case of Indonesia, it is clear that Russia will be invited to attend the G20 on Nov 15-16, something several senior Indonesian officials have confirmed. The Indonesian Foreign Affairs Ministry was also quick to respond that Indonesia, as the president of G20, has the obligation to invite all members. After all, G20 is a forum to discuss key global economic issues, not geopolitical ones. Indonesia and Russia have close diplomatic relations. Mr Putin has planned to make an official visit ahead of the G20 summit this year as a return visit for Indonesian President Joko Widodo in Soichi in 2016. A grand trade exhibition is being planned to mark Mr Putin's visit. Now, with the current situation, it is doubtful if he could come at all. If he chooses to attend the G20 meeting, other members could boycott the summit altogether. Mr Biden also said if countries such as Indonesia and others do not agree about removing Russia, then in his view, Ukraine should be allowed to attend the meetings.
After Indonesia, Thailand is to host the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meeting from Nov 18–19. By that time, the host hopes that the hostilities will have fizzled out and all Apec members are in the mood to come together to promote post-Covid-19 economic recovery and the well-being of their peoples. Thailand has already mapped out a grand strategy to transform the country's economic structure into a more sustainable and green one. "Open, Connect, Balance," is the theme of Thailand's chairmanship.
The test for all three hosts will come early as May when Thailand convenes a series of meetings of senior officials in preparation for the Apec Trade Ministerial Meeting late in the month. If the battleground in Ukraine is still experiencing missiles and bombs, future meetings would absolutely be bumpy ones. The G20 foreign ministerial meeting is scheduled in June in Jakarta.
Various scenarios have been played out by the Apec chair. First of all, the Thai host is confident that all Apec trade ministers will attend the meeting scheduled for May 18-19 in person. Obviously from the Thai viewpoint, the more invited participants who attend, the better. But that could also pose a huge problem during the meetings, when tense words could be exchanged, especially on hotly contested issues of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Myanmar crisis. The host expects a series of boycotts and walk-outs during speeches made by opposing groups. What is more important is to get the consensus of all participants after their discussions on all matters. Thailand has a great responsibility to see through the consensus-building process.
Thailand has also set an ambitious goal of issuing a declaration at the end of its presidency to chart the future of Asia-Pacific economic cooperation, especially sustainable development and laying the groundwork for advocating the Free Trade Agreement on Asia-Pacific. That will be an impossible task if some of the participants are still at the loggerheads. The host hopes in the coming days there will be new and positive developments -- keeping its fingers crossed.
