Russia is running short of weapons, allies and troops with Vladimir Putin’s regime becoming increasingly desperate, the head of the UK’s GCHQ intelligence agency said.
Sir Jeremy Fleming said Moscow still had a “very capable military machine” despite those shortcomings, although it was being stretched by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Russian president Mr Putin launched a missile and drone barrage against Ukrainian cities including Kyiv on Monday and air raid sirens again sounded in the capital on Tuesday.
Mr Putin has warned about the potential use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory – a definition which he could extend to the occupied regions of Ukraine.
We believe that Russia is running short of munitions, it's certainly running short of friends and we have seen, because of the declaration for mobilisation, that it is running short of troops— Sir Jeremy Fleming, GCHQ
GCHQ chief Sir Jeremy said he hoped the UK would see “indicators” from Russia before any deployment of nuclear weapons, something which would be a “catastrophe”.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “We believe that Russia is running short of munitions, it’s certainly running short of friends and we have seen, because of the declaration for mobilisation, that it is running short of troops.”
Sir Jeremy said Moscow’s top brass were “worried about the state of their military machine”, adding “the word I have used is desperate and we can see that desperation at many levels inside Russian society and inside the Russian military machine”.
Despite the problems facing Moscow, Mr Putin still had “deep stocks and expertise” in his military, as shown by Monday’s co-ordinated strikes against Ukraine’s cities.
Pressed on whether GCHQ would know if Mr Putin was considering using nuclear weapons, Sir Jeremy said: “I think any talk of nuclear weapons is very dangerous and we need to be very careful about how we are talking about that.
“It’s clear to me that whilst we might not like and in many, many ways abhor the way in which the Russian military machine and President Putin are conducting this war, they are staying within the doctrine that we understand for their use, including for nuclear weapons.
“I would hope that we would see indicators if they started to go down that path, but let’s be really clear about that: if they are considering that, that would be a catastrophe in the way that many people have talked about.”
The GCHQ chief will use a speech later on Tuesday to say the Russian people are beginning to understand the depth of the crisis.
“They’re seeing just how badly Putin has misjudged the situation. They’re fleeing the draft, realising they can no longer travel.
“They know their access to modern technologies and external influences will be drastically restricted. And they are feeling the extent of the dreadful human cost of his war of choice.”
Leaders of the G7 group of wealthy democracies – including Prime Minister Liz Truss – will meet virtually later on Tuesday to discuss the next steps in support for Ukraine.
Ms Truss is also expected to call for a full meeting of Nato leaders in the coming days.
The G7 video call will also be attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who spoke to Ms Truss and other world leaders on Monday.
Ms Truss is expected to urge the G7 to “stay the course” in the battle against Mr Putin.
“The overwhelming international support for Ukraine’s struggle stands in stark opposition to the isolation of Russia on the international stage,” she is expected to say on Tuesday.
“Their bravery in the face of the most brutal acts of violence has earned the people of Ukraine global admiration.
“Nobody wants peace more than Ukraine. And for our part, we must not waver one iota in our resolve to help them win it.”
G7 leaders are also likely to discuss the global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion, amid plans to introduce a global cap on the price of Russian oil to target Mr Putin’s revenues.
Ukraine is seeking more advanced air defence and anti-missile systems to counter any repeat of the barrage launched against Kyiv on Monday.
Following his talks with Ms Truss, Mr Zelensky said Ukraine counts on the UK’s “leadership in consolidating international political and defence support for Ukraine, in particular regarding the protection of our skies”.
