Russia risks running out of ammunition as the deadlock deepens in eastern Ukraine, a Western official has revealed.
Vladimir Putin ’s invaders and Ukrainian defence forces are increasingly locked in an attritional conflict in the Donbas region.
An official warned: “With no strategic compromise and near stalemate on the ground, this will be a long war.”
They believed the battle for the Donbas was “moving remarkably slowly”, adding: “ Russia has achieved tactical creeping success at very considerable cost.”
They said Western officials were “increasingly alert that there will come a time when the tiny advances Russia is making become unsustainable in light of the costs and they will need a significant pause to regenerate capability”.
Moscow was sending “significant reinforcements to the Donbas sector”, the official said, pointing to the Kremlin calling up “relatively low quality, under-manned, reservist units”.
“In terms of force generation, Russia is effectively selling off the family silver,” they said.
“The deployment of reserves links to a key point of assessment - there will presumably come a point when Russia will cease to be able to generate effective, offensive combat power, due to a lack of ammunition, low morale and simply a shortage of combat units.
“We can’t yet speculate when exactly that point might be reached, and clearly the Ukrainian military have faced their own challenges too.”
They said “expensive, advanced weaponry takes a considerable amount of time to produce under specialised conditions”, adding: “At any one time any country holds a limited stockpile.
“From Russia’s point of view they have expended a huge quantity of them but want to maintain a strategic reserve in the case that they need to fight a war with NATO.”
They believed there were “limits to their precision munitions remaining” and highlighted the “enormous” amount of artillery shells unleashed in the Donbas.
In the Commons, Defence Select Committee chairman Tobias Ellwood, a former Royal Green Jackets officer, warned that while Russia was “not losing” the war, Ukraine was “not winning”.
"The long-term European security is threatened not just by the utility of force, but a wider conflict between the West and growing authoritarianism,” he told MPs.
"Britain should lead a coalition of the willing that offers Ukraine the scale of support that it requires and, in recognising this new threat picture, it does require us to review our own defence posture."
Defence Minister Leo Docherty insisted: “We are providing political and practical support to support its self-defence and will further strengthen NATO’s deterrence and defence posture.”
Outlining equipment supplied by Britain, he added: “To date we have sent over 6,900 anti-tank missiles, five air defence systems including Starstreak anti-air missiles, 120 armoured fighting vehicles... and 1,360 anti-structures munitions, 4.5 tonnes of plastic explosives and 400,000 rounds of small-arms ammunition.
"In addition, we have also supplied over 200,000 items of non-lethal aid, including more than 82,000 helmets, more than 8,000 body armour kits."
Meanwhile, Home Secretary Priti Patel suggested an overhaul to the Homes for Ukraine scheme was imminent after demands to widen the project to children travelling with family members who are not their parents.
She told MPs: "We are going to make changes."
