China's economy grew at a faster pace than forecast in the third quarter of 2022, but investors have reacted with alarm to President Xi Jinping's sweeping new powers over the ruling Communist Party.
Just a handful of world leaders congratulated Xi on the first day of his third term, with western politicians generally remaining silent.
Xi secured an expected third stint as leader at the party Congress last weekend, but surprised observers by stacking key leadership positions with his own protégés and allies.
"They are clearly people whose primary qualification is that they have been personally loyal to Xi in the past," Michael Dillon, a history professor with the Lau China Institute at London's King College, says.
The inclusion of Li Qiang, for example, the former Shanghai party secretary, came as a surprise.
"Li Qiang seemed to have failed miserably in the way the Covid outbreak was handled in Shanghai," according to Dillon. " He was responsible for very unpopular lockdowns."
However, Dillon believes that the main thing that counts in the new line-up is personal loyalty to Xi Jinping.
"So he has this group of people around him who presumably will do as he wants, and that, of course, is rather a dangerous position to be in," Dillon says.
He has this group of people around him who will do as he wants and that is rather a dangerous position to be in.
PODCAST: Michael Dillon, History professor with the Lau China Institute, King's College, London.
At the 19th Party Congress, in 2017, Xi Jinping managed to suppress the two-term (10 year) limit on the function of Party Secretary, opening the way for a 'tenure for life.' But many positions within the Central Committee were still filled with protégés of Xi's predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin.
During the last Party Congress (in 2017), Xi managed to get rid of most of his political opponents, such as the so-called Youth League faction which was headed by Hu Jintao. He also ousted the few who remained loyal to Jiang Zemin.
According to Dillon, the latest Congress marks the end of the "collective leadership" format by which China has been ruled for over two decades.
The new line-up will have consequences for China's foreign policy, already strained because of a trade war with the US, EU and American complaints about China's treatment of the Uyghurs in Xinjiang.
The list of contentious policies also includes the imposition of a national security law taking away basic freedoms in Hong Kong, belligerent rhetoric vis-à-vis Taiwan, and increasing efforts to gain influence in the Pacific, competing with regional players as well as the US and France.
But things may turn around, Dillon says.
"Xi seems to be more hard-line each year. He seems to aim for a much greater input of the People's Liberation Army, which is expected to have greater influence than it has previously.
"The hard-line rhetoric on Taiwan could have served him well in securing his new status as third-time Party Secretary. And now he's in that position, maybe he doesn't have to be so hard-line internationally."
Dillon points out that the road ahead won't be easy for the Xi-led party. The new composition of China's leadership shows "poor representation of people connected to private business" which exemplifies the increasing confrontation Xi is having with this sector.
Over the last five years he has attacked billionaires, companies with international (meaning, predominantly, US) listings, and the rich and famous and their companies, especially if they voiced the slightest criticism of Xi.
"We can look at this in the future as being a major area of conflict within Chinese policy," says Dillon.
Generally, the recent party congress marks a stark departure from the "Reform and Open Door" policy masterminded by one-time leader Deng Xiaoping, who opened China up to the outside world in 1979, after three decades of isolation under Mao Zedong.
"Xi Jinping has been reversing aspects of the Deng policy over the past five years or longer," Dillon told RFI.
"Notably, removing the Communist Party as much as possible from the day-to-day running of the economy, and avoiding a concentration of political power in the hands of one single leader.
"Quite clearly, these are the things that Xi Jinping has overturned. So, for the time being, yes, it's the end of that policy. But if we look at China's history, you see a sort of flip-flopping over the decades. At some point we'll move back, perhaps even very quickly, into something that is more open to business and more diversity," Dillon thinks.
Congratulations!
After the closing of the 20th Party Congress and the publication of the names of the new central committee (China's Central Television took 18 minutes to read the names of all 205 members) congratulatory messages started to pour in from various places in the world.
According to the official People's Daily of 24 October, first in line was Russian President Vladimir Putin, who extended "the warmest wishes," congratulating Xi on being "again elected as party secretary."
China continues to buy large amounts of oil and gas from Moscow, indirectly contributing to Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.
Second to congratulate Xi was South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa, who, as ANC leader, has a strong affinity with China, as Beijing was always a staunch supporter of the ANC during the Apartheid era.
Next in line was Alberto Fernandez, the Argentinian presdident, Salva Kiir Mayardit, the President of South Sudan, and the Belarus leader Alexander Lukachenko.
The only western leader was Hungary's Victor Orban, who stressed that "relations between Budapest and Beijing have developed rapidly over the past ten years," in spite of growing EU-wide hesitation to dealing with China.
Chinese media did not report congratulatory messages from any other western country.
Economy growing, but slowly
The day after the party congress, the Chinese government belatedly published economic data showing that the economy grew 3.9 percent year-on-year in the third quarter.
China had been expected to announce some of its weakest quarterly growth figures since 2020, with the world's second-biggest economy hobbled by Covid-19 restrictions and a real estate crisis.
But investors instead focused on the political developments, especially fears that Xi and his allies will continue with vast virus lockdowns and other policies that have punished the economy.
China's currency slumped and stocks nosedived to their lowest level since the global financial crisis.
On Monday, the yuan dipped to its weakest since January 2008.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, a gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, closed down by more than 7 percent -- the worst showing after any Communist Party Congress since the launch of the index in 1994.
