Russia is continuing its offensive into Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region after capturing almost the entire neighbouring Luhansk region, according to the head of Ukraine-controlled Luhansk’s regional civil administration.
Serhiy Haidai told Ukraine’s United News he did not agree with recent western assessments that Russia had paused its offensive and was resting to regroup. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based thinktank, and British military intelligence have both said in recent days that Russian forces are resting and taking time to reposition themselves for the next offensive.
“There has not been any kind of operational pause or reduction in shelling,” said Haidai. “Their attempts to advance forward are constant. They are putting in new units, including tank units.”
He said the assessment were predictions most likely based on Ukraine’s successful destruction of ammunition depots in Russian-occupied areas last week that could give Moscow real logistical problems.
Ukraine’s general staff said on Friday that Russian forces had made advances eastwards towards the Ukrainian-controlled town of Bakhmut, in north-eastern Donetsk oblast.
Meanwhile, over the past week, Russian forces have repeatedly hit major urban areas in the Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk. At least eight people have been killed and 27 injured in strikes on Sloviansk in the past week, according to the city’s authorities.
Particularly harrowing was the 5 July strike on Sloviansk’s town market, where people had been working and shopping. Video footage shows Ukrainian soldiers and civilians pulling people out of a fire, while other bystanders try to extinguish it.
Russian forces struck a market and a residential area in the eastern Ukrainian city of Slovyansk on July 5. Ukrainian officials said at least two people were killed and seven others were injured. (WARNING: Viewers may find the content of this video disturbing.) pic.twitter.com/9AN4DatrxX
— Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (@RFERL) July 5, 2022
Russian forces have also hit the city of Kramatorsk, the post-2014 regional capital of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk, twice in the past week, killing one person and injuring seven.
Tens of thousands of civilians have fled Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk in the anticipation of type of the shelling unleashed in neighbouring Luhansk oblast. The mayor of Sloviansk has been encouraging the population to leave, but about 23,000 residents remain.
To get to the main towns under Ukrainian control, the Russians must push through areas in the northern and eastern parts of Donetsk oblast where Ukrainian forces had dug in their positions, said Haidai.
“Within that 100 sq metres, if Russian soldiers are being killed and their equipment is being destroyed that we can still say Luhansk region is still holding,” said Haidai, referring to the slither of Luhansk oblast still controlled by Ukraine.
“They are trying to put all their reserve forces into getting to the administrative borders [of Luhansk oblast] but so far they have not been successful.”
The UK’s defence ministry said on Friday that Russian forces were pausing to replenish and reposition their equipment to launch an offensive on Siversk, a small town in the north of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk, in order to push towards the urban areas under Ukrainian control.
Earlier this week, the Institute for the Study of War said Russian forces were pausing to rest and regain their combat capabilities – a statement Russia’s defence ministry confirmed.
Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, said at a meeting with parliamentary leaders on Thursday that Russia had not “started anything yet in earnest” in Ukraine and that it would be harder to negotiate the longer the conflict continued.
Russia’s reported strategy has been to systematically destroy buildings in order to strip the Ukrainian forces of cover for their positions, forcing them to retreat. But this tactic requires a constant stream of artillery ammunition, say experts, which Ukrainian are targeting.
Ukraine has hit 20 Russian ammunition depots in the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military expert Ivan Kyrychevsky told Ukraine’s Radio NV.
Ukraine’s general staff claimed on Friday that they had successfully hit an ammunition depot in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region, killing 44 Russian soldiers and destroying air defence systems in the process.
Military experts told the Guardian that the longer-range rocket systems recently supplied by the west, in particular the US Himars systems, had allowed Ukrainian forces to target storage facilities behind enemy lines, slowing down Russia’s operational strategy and forcing them to be more careful with their ammunition.
The Himars rockets systems allow Ukrainian forces to precisely strike their target, unlike the systems they used before.
The military expert Oleg Zhdanov told FeganLive, a popular analysis programme on YouTube, that there were nine Himars operating in Ukraine. The most a Himar missile would deviate from its target was one to three metres, if targeting an object 75km away, Zhdanov said. Whereas a Smerch, said Zhdanov, could deviate by 1km when attempting to hit a target 70km away.
The US senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, while visiting Kyiv on Thursday, said the US should quickly supply Ukraine with more weaponry, including ammunition for Himars, Reuters reported.
“We have a chance here in the next 60 days … the decisions we make can turn the tide of this war in favour of Ukraine,” Graham said.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and his advisers have said they believe UK support for Ukraine would remain unchanged despite Boris Johnson’s resignation on Thursday.
Johnson became popular in Ukraine because of his vocal support for Kyiv on the international stage and the UK’s supply of weapons to Ukraine.
“We have no doubt that Great Britain’s support will be preserved, but your personal leadership and charisma made it special,” Zelenskiy said.
The UK’s army chief visited his Ukrainian counterpart in Ukraine on Thursday and reiterated the UK’s support.
